PPR Fantasy Football

[pshankstar]

It’s hard to have such a long streak going on but you all are welcome!
Don’t say I didn’t do anything nice for the league.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Halfway there, and we watched as the WR landscape got even further crazy during Monday Night Football, with Evans getting knocked out of the game aggravating an existing hamstring injury, and then Godwin getting knocked out and reportedly may be lost for the season. Zay Flowers (who I was facing in both of my leagues) tweaked his ankle. He returned to the game, so hopefully it isn't serious, but didn't record another stat the entire night.

So many things remain in the playoff race. There are a few teams that should feel like they're in pretty good shape and the rest of the season is more about playoff seeding. The only team that's truly in dire straits is Fury, who probably has to be perfect the rest of the season just for a piece of any tiebreaker. Fury has to start hoping for carnage above him such that the final playoff tiebreaker record is at 6-8 rather than 7-7. Right now even the (4) teams sitting at 3-4 are currently tied for the last playoff spot.

This week our (2) teams sitting at 10th & 11th place at 2-5 face each other, so one of them will start to climb out of that hole while the other starts getting into desperation mode.

But good news for week 8--the NFL somehow has scheduled zero teams on bye this week. So at least you don't have to manage through that!

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

So I'll pose a question to everyone. 7 weeks in, what is your biggest surprise so far this season, whether it's players on your own team, or fantasy football in general?

For me, it's Patrick Mahomes. If you told me the Chiefs would be 6-0 and Mahomes would currently be tracking as QB21 in average points per game scoring on the season (note: I took out Russ due to sample size and Flacco as he's a backup; he's actually QB23), I would have thought that was crazy. ESPECIALLY after Isaiah Pacheco has been missing since week 3.

 

[pshankstar]

I would agree with @betarhoalphadelta about the Chiefs and Mahomes. They are playing lousy but still winning games.
For me I feel like Olave has been the biggest bust for me on my team.
The biggest surprise for me is Derick Henry, I thought he might be on the decline but damn am I wrong!

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Well it looks like my Mahomes got a new toy to play with in DeAndre Hopkins, since all his other toys keep getting broken (Rice / Hollywood / Juju)...

 

[Chorgey]

So I'll pose a question to everyone. 7 weeks in, what is your biggest surprise so far this season, whether it's players on your own team, or fantasy football in general?

My biggest surprise is that I still have any WR left. Losing Rashee Rice and Rashid Shaheed for the year, not to mention Mike Evans for a few weeks.
Sheesh!

 

[troglodytes]

My biggest surprise is just how much of a dumpster fire Miami is without Tua. A Waddle injury would have been better for my team than the Tua injury.

Also, what kind of wolverine healing powers does Puka have. I sat him tonight scared of a pitch count but looks like he's doing just fine after being out all preseason and the last 6 weeks.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

8 weeks in, and I realized what how badly I missed one of the key matchups from last week.

I had not realized that 6-1 Bar Flies was facing 6-1 Beer is my Petronus to take the sole lead in the league last week! Well, Bar Flies was led by a 43.76 point outing from <checks notes> Bo Nix(???), and Petronus put up an uncharacteristically below-average weekly score. So now we have Bar Flies sitting alone atop the league at 7-1.

The premiere matchup this week will be 6-2 Beer is my Petronus taking on 6-2 Brockstars, with the Brockstars coming off a 196.80 point thrashing of Finger Lakes Fury. 6 different players on the Brockstars scored over 20 points, and they're on a 6-game winning streak. Petronus, who has gotten to 6-2 despite not having CMC all season, Nico Collins for the last few weeks, and now lost Stefon Diggs, will hope to put a stop to that run, hopefully with the help of a big game from Nick Chubb who was stashed in IR since draft time and is now healthy.

Below this, we have a lot of critical matchups for those teams looking to climb up the standings:

• 2-6 Coneheads takes on 5-3 Milwaukee Muggers
• 3-5 Hop To It takes on 7-1 Bar Flies
• 3-5 fill my Kupp takes on 5-3 Mr IPA & Mrs Blonde

Wins by the lower teams in those matchups can dramatically compress the standings and make the playoff qualifications very tight, while wins by the higher teams will start to solidify an early playoff pecking order and give those teams breathing room.

4-4 Birds of War will hope to avoid getting tripped up by the 0-8 Fury, who has had solid scoring the last three weeks. 4-4 Big Gulps takes on 3-5 Prestige Worldwide in a game that can also significantly improve the playoff chances for the winner.

6 weeks to go and then it's playoff time!

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

So this week's question... For those of you playing in multiple leagues, how are you doing elsewhere? Do you have any start/sit decisions you want feedback on?

For me, I'm in that 20-team psycho league. I'm 5-3 just like here. I started with IMHO the best WR corps in the league but due to trades and now injuries (just lost Diggs), I'm struggling. I did get lucky with the Diontae Johnson trade as Xavier Legette just became my WR2, and while he's on a terrible team with a terrible QB, he's at least going to be the lead guy (I hope).

My question for a start sit is this: Geno Smith vs Matthew Stafford.

Stafford flat out excelled with Kupp and Puka active last week, but I don't expect him to have the same performance. But he should be better than he's been this season with both of them back. Geno was terrible last weekend (I'd have won and been 6-2 if I'd started Stafford), and I attribute some of that to being without DK Metcalf, who the coaching staff seems optimistic will be back Sunday.

I'm torn. Geno is at home, and if DK is active I'm considering him. But I don't know if I should go Stafford over Geno no matter what because of Kupp/Nacua being back and healthy.

 

[pshankstar]

@betarhoalphadelta given the information and they are playing each other I would go with the home team (Seattle) assuming DK is playing.

In my neighborhood league I’m in third place with a 11-5 record. Long story short if your total team score is above the mean for the week you get a win, if it’s lower than you get a loss. Thus the strange record.

With that I have a QB issue in that league of who to start. Mahomes or Cousins I feel like if I sit Mahomes he will go off but if I keep benching Cousins, Mahomes will continue to not have great numbers as my starter.

Currently I’m leaning towards starting Cousins. Atlanta plays the train wreck called Dallas. Whereas KC plays Tampa and I feel like Tampa’s defense will be harder than Dallas’s. Yet I’m still torn.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

You should sit Mahomes so that he goes off. And I'm totally NOT saying that because I have Mahomes here

But seriously Tampa's defense isn't all that great. Heck, Cousins torched them twice. I had them in the 20-team and just managed to trade them away for the Bears. One of the problems with Tampa's defense right now, quite frankly, is their offense. With Godwin lost for the season and Evans out for a few more weeks, they may not be able to stay on the field. Giving Mahomes plenty of opportunity to amass stats.

That said, Dallas sucks too, so I can see why you'd be torn on this one. I'd be watching for status on Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs. If Parsons is actually back on the field, I'd consider it a game-changer for that Dallas defense. I doubt Trevon Diggs' injury keeps him out of the game, but it's something to monitor. If he and Parsons are both out, Cousins is an EASY start. If Diggs plays but Parsons does not, I'd put the Dallas defense roughly on par with Tampa's.

 

[Chorgey]

So this week's question... For those of you playing in multiple leagues, how are you doing elsewhere? Do you have any start/sit decisions you want feedback on?

My question for a start sit is this: Geno Smith vs Matthew Stafford.

That's a very tough call between the two. For me, it's a 50/50 shot.
I give a slight edge to Geno Smith

 

[Chorgey]

@betarhoalphadelta given the information and they are playing each other I would go with the home team (Seattle) assuming DK is playing.

With that I have a QB issue in that league of who to start. Mahomes or Cousins I feel like if I sit Mahomes he will go off but if I keep benching Cousins, Mahomes will continue to not have great numbers as my starter.

This is another close one to figure out. I give a slight edge to Cousins.
It looks like Micah Parsons may be out and you'll want to monitor the practice reports on Trevon Diggs.

 

[pshankstar]

I decided last night I would dress up and hand out candy. This is what I went with.

 

[pshankstar]

My streak continues!
I’m at a loss of words.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

My streak continues!
I’m at a loss of words.

It's impressive. I recall my first year in this league there was a miscommunication with two teams that we thought were in for the year, and it turns out they weren't. Their teams autodrafted and were unmanaged all year. And even THEY each lucked into a few wins.

Teams I don't want to face (not necessarily in order--not going that deep):

• Bar Flies - Chorgey: There's just so much damn upside on this roster. Breece is a beast. Derrick Henry in Baltimore with Lamar Jackson taking a lot of defensive attention might return to his old form. Jalen Hurts, Kincaid at TE, and the 'Boys DST. All solid. A lot of potential at WR--I think JSN will excel in his second year with a new OC, Rice might be Mahomes favorite non-TE passcatcher, and Mike Williams could be a big target for Aaron Rodgers throwing deep. Risks: If the WRs bust more than boom, it'll pull down the balance. And at RB, you have Jerome Ford who may be relegated to backup once Chubb is back, Allgeier is a backup, and Derrick Henry is old for an RB. I think Henry's body is more durable than most who face the RB age cliff, but maybe this is the year that Derrick Henry ceases to be Derrick Henry.
• Bones are their Money: Holy WRs, Batman! Garrett Wilson and Puka Nacua are already a great start. But adding in Jaylen Waddle as part of that crazy Miami offense, Zay Flowers who along with Andrews is a favorite target of Lamar, and then you have guys like Josh Palmer who was a steal late in the draft as a proven contributor for Herbert, and Christian Watson because SOMEONE is going to have to catch the ball in GB. Ok, so he loaded up on WR. Then how did he get Josh Jacobs and Alvin Kamara? And Tony Pollard who is ostensibly going to be the starter in Ten, and a flier of a pick in Dobbins who we know will be in an offense that can run the ball. And Charbonnet who is one Walker injury away from being a bellcow. Then he managed to wait on QB and pick up Dak in the 8th. Dak is in a virtual tie for 3rd place in number of completions projected this year, and at 0.5 ppc, that's going to help--and his top WR just got PAID. Risks: Took a flier on a rookie TE which could be boom or bust. And that RB corps could be great--or could be terrible. AK is in decline on a bad team, JK is injury prone, Pollard could get passed by Spears (also potentially on a bad team), Charbonnet is a CLEAR #2 who won't have standalone value minus a Walker injury. Josh Jacobs is the only one I really trust there.

Honorable mention would be Big Gulps. Really solid at QB, TE, and WR. Questionable at RB though. I'd have skipped Tua and Freiermuth and tried to grab some lotto ticket RBs, or would have skipped Lamar in the 4th for a proven RB and hoped to get a QB later--I think Tua is going to be a great one but you can only start one.

Hmm. These two teams (Bones now being named Birds of War of course) are atop the "Points Scored" standings through 9 weeks. One is 8-1 and the other ran into some bad luck in matchups to only be 5-4, but I guess I called it lol.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

9 weeks in!

I think the playoff odds are starting to shape up, and teams probably know where they are and/or what they need to do. That said, even with Bar Flies sitting atop the league with an 8-1 record, there are no "Locks" for the playoffs. Note that I define "Lock" in the strictest possible sense--the team loses out and yet is still mathematically impossible to not be in the playoffs.

Why is this the case? Because Bar Flies is sitting at 8 wins, and there are 11 of 12 teams in the league that are mathematically capable of reaching 8 wins. Which means that it's POSSIBLE that if Bar Flies were to lose out and finish 8-6, enough teams below could reach 8-6 that an 8-6 team is excluded from the playoffs due to a tiebreaker.

Now, we have three teams sitting on 3-6 records. Do I expect them all to get to 8 wins? No. But--in the next 5 weeks those teams don't play each other at all, so literally all three of them mathematically can go 5-0 from here on out to get to 8-6.

All that said... I think 8 wins will be a playoff team. I am expecting that if we have a tiebreaker procedure for the final playoff spot(s) it'll be at 7-7. Teams 4 through 8 in the standings are all within one game of .500, and teams 9 through 11 would need to go 4-1 to reach 7-7, but that's a possibility. I think that's where our logjam is likely to end up.

Game Of The Week: It has to be Beer is my Patronus (6-3) vs Birds of War (5-4). Birds of War, the league's highest scoring team, vs a team one game ahead in the standings, but who has scored more than 100 fewer points on the season. Patronus with a win will move to 7-3, with two tough matchups ahead before finishing the season against lower-scoring teams in weeks 13 and 14. Birds of War has two lower-scoring teams in weeks 11 and 12, but then finishes the season against the Muggers and Bar Flies. A win to get to 6-4 and tie Patronus compresses the standings and gives the Birds a leg up on making the playoffs. And to make it worse--for both teams--they're both facing major bye week issues. Patronus has Geno Smith on bye and just lost backup QB Dak to injury, along with Josh Jacobs and Brock Bowers on bye weeks. Birds of War has Kenneth Walker and Nick Chubb on bye, along with David Njoku, Dustin Hopkins, and the Green Bay defense. Both teams have some players to slot in, but both are going to have to play waivers to fill their lineup--Patronus for a QB and Birds for a defense. So this will be an interesting matchup to see who manages to strike gold with bye week fillers.

Below that matchup, the other four teams in the league with winning records play four teams in the league with losing records. Those on the upper end of those matchups are hoping to avoid an upset, while those on the bottom know they're relying on an upset to keep improve their playoff hopes. And then you have Big Gulps (4-5) looking to avoid giving the Fury their first win of the season, to try to get to .500.

The most interesting of these other matchups is the Milwaukee Muggers (5-4) vs fill my Kupp (3-6). fill my Kupp has scored more points on the season than the Muggers despite the worse record, and based on the projections (once Kupp adjusts his lineup for a bye week) looks to be a nailbiter score. The Muggers next three are Bar Flies, Brockstars, and Birds of War, so the schedule ahead is TOUGH. Much better to walk into that buzzsaw at 6-4 than at 5-5. fill my Kupp has Bar Flies in week 12 and Brockstars in week 14, and they'd be hard pressed to reach 7-7 if they're 3-7 after this week. So this is going to be a big matchup for both teams.

Good luck to all...

 

[troglodytes]

Awesome write up as usual.

I just wanted to give a reminder that I found out the hard way a few seasons back. I believe that the tie breaker for the playoffs is still head to head record and not points scored, so individual matchups are super important from here on out.

 

[pshankstar]

Awesome write up as usual.

I just wanted to give a reminder that I found out the hard way a few seasons back. I believe that the tie breaker for the playoffs is still head to head record and not points scored, so individual matchups are super important from here on out.

You’re all welcome I did my part to help the league.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Awesome write up as usual.

I just wanted to give a reminder that I found out the hard way a few seasons back. I believe that the tie breaker for the playoffs is still head to head record and not points scored, so individual matchups are super important from here on out.

Yep. Last year we had a 5-way tie for the last 3 playoff spots. Figuring out those tiebreakers was not easy.

Sadly, every way I figured it going into the final week I realized I lost all tiebreakers, and I was proven right and missed the playoffs lol...

 

[TallDan]

Great news: I have Ja’marr Chase!

Bad news: In my other league, my opponent this week has him.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

More than 2/3 of the way through the regular season, and 4 weeks to go until the playoffs. We're racing towards the finish with 6th place (as well as 4th and 5th) only 2 games back, so the fight for a playoff berth and even for the important first round bye are still completely up for grabs.

GotW Recap: Well, our game of the week was quite a defensive struggle! Birds of War put up the third-lowest point total of the week, but Beer is my Patronus said "hold my homebrew" and dropped the lowest score of the week and the 2nd lowest of the entire season. Ouch. It appears that Patronus with bye week troubles was expecting Nico Collins to be active, and chose not to insert Rashod Bateman into his lineup as a result, but even Bateman's 17 points would only have narrowed the gap to Birds of War. So Birds of War takes the Bye Week Battle. That moves both teams into a three-way tie for fourth place at 6-4 with the Milwaukee Muggers.

Playoff Locks: Still none. Brockstars joined Bar Flies atop the league at 8-2 with Bar Flies suffering a loss to Coneheads. Mathematically, we've gone from 11 teams having a path to 8 wins to 9 teams, so 8 wins is certainly not a lock. I've also looked at the scenarios for 9 wins. As of right now, Big Gulps at 5-5 would need to go 4-0 to get to 9 wins, and we'd need all three of our 6-4 teams (Muggers, Birds of War, Patronus) to go 3-1 from here on out to have a chance at 9 wins being our tiebreaker. It's unlikely, but I've looked at the schedule and it's possible. If Big Gulps goes 4-0 that adds a loss to 6-4 teams they play (Patronus this week and Muggers week 14), but Patronus and Muggers could still win their other 3. Muggers faces Birds of War in week 13, and would have to then win, while Birds of War would pick up that loss and need to be flawless in their other three. It's not likely, and EVERYTHING would have to break just right... But it's possible. So for the time being, even 9 wins isn't a lock.

Where will the [potential] tiebreaker fall? So we know 8 or 9 wins isn't a lock. But that doesn't mean 8 or 9 wins will ultimately be necessary. At this point, the only team mathematically eliminated from playoff contention is Finger Lakes Fury, because our 6th place team currently has 6 wins, and Fury can get to 4-10 at best. However, our 10th and 11th place teams are at 3-7, and could both potentially get to 7-7 as they don't play each other. And depending how things fall, 7-7 might be the tiebreaker. In fact, mathematically we could have our 6th-place team sitting at 6-8, allowing fill my Kupp and Hop To It to potentially have a way into the tiebreaker going 3-1 from here out. So no matter where you are, keep fighting!

Game Of The Week: Going to have to say it's the 8-2 Bar Flies vs the 6-4 Milwaukee Muggers. Bar Flies would love to move into sole first place again with a win (and Brockstars loss), but with Brockstars having a higher projected point total than Coneheads this week, a win for Bar Flies might be necessary just to stay tied for first. A first round bye in the playoffs is always valuable, and Bar Flies is firmly in that hunt. But a loss, especially paired with potential Brockstars and IPA/Blonde wins, tightens that shot at a bye. Especially as Bar Flies and Brockstars still face each other head-to-head in week 13. For the Muggers, they're headed into a schedule onslaught. The Muggers are currently the 6th highest scoring team in the league. Their next four week opponents currently have a combined record of 27-13 and are the 3rd, 5th, 2nd, and 4th highest scoring teams in the league, respectively. Every win is going to be hard fought the rest of the way for the Muggers, so getting one this week to ease the pressure to make the playoffs would be enormous.

Honorable Mention Game: 6-4 Beer is my Patronus faces 5-5 Big Gulps this week in a very important matchup for both their own playoff hopes and to help fill out the picture of what's necessary to make the playoffs at all. A win by Big Gulps will tie both teams at 6-5 with potentially two other teams if the Muggers fall in the GotW and Birds of War gets tripped up by Hop To It. On the other hand, Patronus getting to 7 wins moves them into great shape at 7-4 with both Prestige Worldwide and Finger Lakes Fury left to play in weeks 13 and 14 (after IPA/Blonde in week 12). A Patronus wins this week combined with wins from Birds of War and/or the Muggers puts intense pressure on Big Gulps and any team below them in the standings to be perfect--and if both win it eliminates Hop To It as their best possible record would be 6-8 and we'd already have 6 teams at 7 wins or better.

Will anyone commit to a Sacko Prize? So we currently have the Finger Lakes Fury sitting at 0-10. That hurts, especially because we can all see he's been managing his team. He got doubly unlucky with injuries to Olave and with DeVon Achane performing badly when Tua was injured, but on top of that is currently the team with the highest "points against". In fact, he's got almost 100 more points against (1577) than the highest scoring team in the league has scored (1480). It's brutal. But as much as there might be a reason to give up at that point, I want to see how the Fury finishes the season. Going 0-14 for an actively managed team with a manager that is not actively tanking would be an accomplishment in itself. So I'll make the following deal with @pshankstar -- keep fighting and managing your team like you're trying to win. If I win the championship, and despite putting in your best effort you finish the regular season at 0-14, I will send you beer. I figure at that point I'll be getting beer from 9 different teams, and am not required to send any, so I wouldn't mind rewarding such a hapless achievement. Will anyone else join me? If you end up the champ and the Fury keeps fighting but finishes 0-14, will you pledge to send beer?

Good luck to all this week! Except of course the Fury--you're playing against me

 

[pshankstar]

You’re too kind @betarhoalphadelta ! I won’t ever say no to beer but please don’t feel obligated too.

I not giving up and bound to get at least one win, hopefully. I made a swap this weekend to play Buffalo’s defense over KC’s which helped me get more points but of course not a victory.

Hopefully I break the streak this weekend!

 

[pshankstar]

For the record my streak will end!! It might not be till next year.

 

[pshankstar]

Come on! I was watching the TNF game last night. Philly’s offense didn’t look good moving the ball in the first half. The Commanders seemed to left a star WR back in Washington DC, so I was feeling pretty good my streak may end this week.
Fell asleep as the third quarter started and woke up to the post game show. Son of a gun!! Barkley decides to blow it open in the fourth quarter.
Well I’m not giving up but now I have a big hole to climb out of going into Sunday.

 

[TallDan]

Eh, @betarhoalphadelta had a ying and a yang with Barkley and McLaurin. Sure, things looked better before Barkley did Barkley things late in the game, but averaging the two out, they’re only a few points over projections.

 

[pshankstar]

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Yeah @TallDan but I also see where @pshankstar is coming from on that one... The whole first half Barkley was getting some minor points and McLaurin was gone. He was feeling good and I was sweating it.

Then early in the 3rd quarter Barkley gets tackled at the 1 yard line and Hurts (who I'm facing this week in my other league) scores on a predictable tush push, and I was starting to get salty. Until Barkley started doing Barkley things and NOT getting tackled on the 1 a couple times.

Overall I'm pretty pleased to be about 6 points over my projection at this point. Because it wasn't looking that way for most of the game.

 

[pshankstar]

Yeah @TallDan but I also see where @pshankstar is coming from on that one... The whole first half Barkley was getting some minor points and McLaurin was gone. He was feeling good and I was sweating it.

Then early in the 3rd quarter Barkley gets tackled at the 1 yard line and Hurts (who I'm facing this week in my other league) scores on a predictable tush push, and I was starting to get salty. Until Barkley started doing Barkley things and NOT getting tackled on the 1 a couple times.

Overall I'm pretty pleased to be about 6 points over my projection at this point. Because it wasn't looking that way for most of the game.

That’s absolutely it. It sums up my year and sounds like my friends who are Bills fans. There’s a lot of hope early then nothing but defeat later.

 

[pshankstar]

My streak might end this week!!!
Right now it predicts a narrow victory but we all know those projections mean $h1t.

But one can hope, right?