PPR Fantasy Football

[pshankstar]

Could my streak continue by taking down the #1 team?

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Could my streak continue by taking down the #1 team?

Lookin' that way... Pretty sure Ty Chandler isn't going to outscore Mattison+42.08 lol...

Couple big games tonight.

• IPA/Blonde (me) needs >3.7 out of TJ Hockenson to move to 6-5, otherwise Patronus moves to 6-5. The losing team moves into "must win" mode the remaining two weeks at 5-7.
• Bar Flies is projected to join Prestige (assuming they lose) at 9-3, but it's not a done deal. Bar Flies holds a slight lead with Addison left to play vs MIN defense left to play for fill my Kupp. But it's close. Important for Bar Flies and their goal of getting a bye in the playoff first rounds.
• Fury obviously with the big lead to stay alive for the postseason. Prestige losing helps those teams behind chasing the goal of a #1 or #2 seed though, which is important.
• Dawg Pound also needing a win to get to 6-5 for the playoff chase. Down 15 with Justin Fields left to play vs Bones, who is finished.

The first one not caring about tonight's outcome is Muggers over Mahomeys. Muggers has a huge lead and two left to play, including the QB. That'll get them to 7-5 which is a big step toward the playoffs, leaving Mahomeys at 5-7 and in "must win" mode the next two weeks. The other is Big Gulps over Hop To It, which will keep Big Gulps in "must win" mode improving to 5-7, and probably be the nail in the coffin for Hop To It and their playoff hopes...

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Correction... Myself, Patronus, and Dawg are trying to get to 6-6, not 6-5.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Alright, one more week down. Two to go and then the playoffs await.

Week 12 Recap:

• Big Gulps (5-7) def Hop To It (4-8), 181.80 to 132.46: Hop To It jumped out to an early lead with a lot of players on Thursday, but then Big Gulps pulled away and had an unstressful night on Monday Night Football with it already in the bag. We'll get into the playoff picture below, but Big Gulps still has a path to a 7-7 tiebreaker and Hop To It is still technically alive for a deep long shot.
• Dawg Pound (6-6) def Bones are their Money (8-4), 133.48 to 126.94: Dawg watched as Justin Fields overcame two lost fumbles and a game where the Bears won despite not scoring a touchdown to score 22 points and put them over the edge. This was a critical game for Dawg to get to 6-6 for the playoff race, while Bones is still right in the thick of the push for a top seed and playoff bye.
• Milwaukee Muggers (7-5) def Beer with Mahomeys (5-7), 190.80 to 106.82: The Muggers, coming off a 190-point drubbing from Bar Flies last week, dropped their own 190 on Mahomeys to take this one easily. When 5 players NOT including your QB score over 20 points, and your defense even drops 18, it's a good darn day. Muggers are now guaranteed a tiebreaker at worst in the playoffs, while Mahomeys has some work to do.
• Finger Lakes Fury (5-7) def Prestige Worldwide (9-3), 176.56 to 129.28: The Fury keep their playoff run alive, taking down the top team in the league, led by a massive 54-point outing from Josh Allen. I'm sure Prestige was really pulling for Justin Herbert to answer Allen in Sunday Night Football, but as usual, the Chargers didn't get it done. We'll talk about the math down below, but for now, Fury can guarantee a spot in a tiebreaker with two more wins, and Prestige is still in the catbird seat for a bye needing only one more win in the next two weeks.
• fill my Kupp (4-8) def Bar Flies (8-4), 139.54 to 136.96: Talk about a nailbiter! I was watching MNF and saw that Kupp was down 0.10 points and saw Justin Fields with a lost fumble to the Minnesota defense, adding 3 points on the defense to gain a 2.90 point lead. Then the Bears got the ball back in the final minutes, only needing a FG to win, but I looked at the scoring and saw that a TD would erase 3 points from the Minnesota defense, which would have lost the matchup for Kupp. The Bears got deep into FG range, forced the Vikings to exhaust their time outs, and kicked the FG to win the game and for Kupp to win his matchup. Kupp still has a VERY long shot chance at getting into a tiebreaker, while Bar Flies is looking for a path to the #1 or #2 seed and that important bye week.
• Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (6-6) def Beer is my Patronus (5-7), 164.98 to 152.68: By the conclusion of the Sunday second slate of games, IPA/Blonde had a lead, knowing that Patronus still had Lamar Jackson to play in SNF, and then with the chance to answer with TJ Hockenson in MNF. Lamar Jackson had a relatively pedestrian outing at only 22 points, but that was enough to give a slight (3.7 point) lead to Patronus heading into MNF. Hockenson put up zero points in the first half, but started getting catches in the second half to give IPA/Blonde the lead, and then put the icing on the cake with a TD. This was a critically important game for both teams entering at 5-6 in the playoff race, and the win gives IPA/Blonde a little tiny bit of breathing room while Patronus has some work ahead.

The Playoff Picture:

Locks:

With this weekend's results, both Bar Flies and Bones failed to get to 9 wins, but they now join Prestige Worldwide as locks. No more than 5 teams can get to 8 wins, so all three teams are guaranteed a postseason. So now it comes down to the #1/#2 seed and who gets the bye week. Bar Flies and Bones face each other in week 14, so no more than 2 remaining teams can get to 10 wins. that means that one more win for Prestige will absolutely lock up a bye, and it's also guaranteed that at least one of Bar Flies/Bones will reach 9 wins. While Muggers is not yet even a lock for the playoffs, this also means that there's a CHANCE for Muggers to get into a tiebreaker for a bye week with 2 more wins, and Muggers is the only team with a mathematical chance to have a bye.

The middle scenarios:

I'm going to break this down by number of wins after the next two weeks.

• 8 wins: As mentioned above, 8 wins is a playoff lock. I'm skipping 9 wins even though Muggers can get there, because anything past 8 only affects seeding. Only three teams have a path to 8(+) wins. Muggers (7-5), Dawg (6-6), and IPA/Blonde (6-6). However, Dawg and IPA/Blonde face each other in week 14, so only two of these three teams can actually get there. Interestingly, Big Gulps (5-7) plays heavily into this, facing Dawg this week and Muggers in week 14. Two wins by Big Gulps not only gets them into a tiebreaker at 7-7, but increases the likelihood that the tiebreaker will be for more than 1 playoff spot.
• 7 wins: Because IPA/Blonde and Dawg face each other in week 14, the loser of that game can do no better than 7-7. This means that 7-7 is a guaranteed record to make a tiebreaker for the playoffs. This opens the door for Fury, Big Gulps, Patronus, and Mahomeys, who all sit today at 5-7. Technically only three of the four can get there, as Fury/Patronus face each other in week 14, so the loser of that matchup can do no better than 6-8. Every team in this group can be guaranteed a tiebreaker opportunity with two wins.

The Long-Shot 6 Win Scenario:

It's possible that someone needs to check my math on this... The Muggers are already at 7 wins. The winner of the matchup of IPA/Blonde and Dawg in week 14 will have 7 wins. However, if the loser of that matchup also loses this week, then the current top half of the standings has an opportunity that the 6th playoff spot comes down to a 6-8 tiebreaker, as long as none of the current 5-7 teams gets two more wins. And given the remaining schedule, that's mathematically possible.

Which means that while the scenario where either Kupp or Hop To It gets two more wins AND the final spot comes down to a 6-8 tiebreaker is ridiculously unlikely...

Yep. We're in week 13 and all 12 teams are still technically alive for the postseason.

Week 13 Preview:

Obviously this is a big week for pretty much everyone...

• Big Gulps (5-7) vs Dawg Pound (6-6): Since the 6-8 tiebreaker is unlikely, I'm just going to call this a must-win for Big Gulps. So it's a big matchup. Dawg would guarantee a piece of a tiebreaker going into what is going to be a tough matchup for both teams next week, so this would be a big win for Dawg. Unfortunately Dawg is facing bye weeks from both Justin Fields and James Cook, which are certainly not coming at an opportune time.
• Bones are their Money (8-4) vs Milwaukee Muggers (7-5): Slightly less implications here, as Bones is already a lock and playing for a seed/bye, and Muggers is already guaranteed tiebreaker at worse and only has to win one of the next two to lock for the playoffs. But this is fantasy football. Every win helps.
• Beer is my Patronus (5-7) vs Prestige Worldwide (9-3): Bye week hell couldn't come at a worse time for Patronus, with Lamar Jackson, Jakobi Meyers, Khalil Shakir, and Daniel Carlson all sitting this week. Facing the top team in the league in a must-win scenario with a lot of key players inactive? Yeah, gonna be a big upset if Patronus can pull this one off...
• Beer with Mahomeys (5-7) vs Bar Flies (8-4): Another bye week problem for Mahomeys, but not quite as bad as Patronus, with Saquon Barkley and Gabe Davis both on bye. But against Bar Flies, who dropped 190 points two weeks ago and is currently the highest-scoring team in the league, and has their starting roster intact bye-wise? Yeah, another uphill battle in a must-win scenario and it'll be another huge upset if Mahomeys can do it.
• fill my Kupp (4-8) vs Finger Lakes Fury (5-7): Must win for both teams. For Kupp, a win keeps the long shot scenario alive. For Fury, assuming the long shot scenario doesn't happen and 7 is necessary, this is a must win. Fury has Josh Allen on bye, but happens to have Tua as his backup against the Commanders, so that shouldn't be a huge downgrade. And despite the similar records, we have the 2nd highest scoring team in the league going against the lowest-scoring team in the league. But it's fantasy football. Anything can happen--and often does.
• Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (6-6) vs Hop To It (4-8): Again, an absolute must win for Hop To It just to keep the long shot scenario alive. A win for IPA/Blonde would get to 7, guaranteeing a tiebreaker at worst ahead of a tough matchup against Dawg next week. IPA/Blonde is dealing with bye weeks for Davante Adams and TJ Hockenson, while Hop To It is going to have to decide who to use to fill the flex spot with OBJ on bye.

Good luck to all this week! (Except Hop To It, of course.)

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Bad news for Patronus, as in addition to bye week hell, Jonathan Taylor is now undergoing thumb surgery and expected to be out 2-3 weeks.

Sorry, brother, that's just some terrible luck in general, but specifically to happen when everyone else is on bye and you need a win

 

[pshankstar]

Wow, depending on how tonight’s game goes. I could have the highest scoring team this week!
Watch out guys, I’m making my run to win the league this year.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Wow, depending on how tonight’s game goes. I could have the highest scoring team this week!
Watch out guys, I’m making my run to win the league this year.

Yep, looks like you're on a serious heater.

So far Prestige has already beaten Patronus, and Bar Flies has already defeated Mahomeys, which limits the number of teams who can get to seven wins as the losing franchise in both matchups will fall to 5-8.

You (Fury) have "beaten" Kupp (i.e. Boyd isn't going to score negative 42 so you're good).

Remaining games up in the air:

• Muggers sitting a point ahead of Bones, but with one left to play while Bones has two. All three left to play are on Cincinnati, so any TD that Higgins gets doesn't go to Mixon/Chase, and vice versa. So it could go either way as a big (multi-TD) Higgins game probably limits Mixon and Chase both having a big game.
• Dawg down against Big Gulps, with three players left to go while Big Gulps is done. Dawg isn't projected to win, but the projections are only 7 points off Big Gulps current score, so big games from Etienne, Jones, and Kirk could flip that. The only problem is all three players are on Jacksonville, so each one's success to an extent cannibalizes points from the other two.
• IPA/Blonde (me) with a big lead over Hop To It and projected to win by a fairly large margin. Feeling confident.

 

[gromitdj]

Stupid 49'ers...

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Stupid 49'ers...

What's interesting is that you (Mahomeys) and all of the other 5-7 teams (Fury, Patronus, Big Gulps) have to be rooting for Big Gulps to win tonight. Big Gulps winning allows for the 6-8 playoff tiebreaker scenario to remain alive.

And Fury has to root for Big Gulps in an additional way. If IPA/Blonde wins (7-6) and Dawg wins (7-6), the winner of our matchup next week will be 8-6 and the loser will be 7-7. The tiebreaker in this league is H2H record. Both IPA/Blonde and Dawg will be 1-0 H2H against Fury from his bad stretch earlier in the season. So if both IPA/Blonde and Dawg win, Fury is eliminated at 6-7 along with all of the teams that drop to 5-8 tonight. The only way that Fury gets in at 7-7 is if one of IPA/Blonde and one of Dawg finish 8-6 and 6-8. And based on projections, it's unlikely IPA/Blonde finishes 6-8.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Where I'm getting confused is whether I have a rooting interest in Dawg vs Big Gulps tonight.

If I win tonight:

• A Dawg win puts both of us at 7-6. The winner of our H2H matchup next week goes to the playoffs automatically at 8-6 and the loser, at worst, has a tie at 7-7 with Fury. But since both Dawg and I have H2H over Fury, we would both be in and Fury out even at 7-7.
• A Dawg loss puts me at 7-6 and Dawg at 6-7. A win for me next week is great, but a loss gets tricky. If Dawg beat me next week, we'd both be 7-7. Assuming Fury loses next week, it doesn't matter and Dawg and I are both in the playoffs. But if Fury wins, the tiebreaker gets harder. Dawg is one of the teams I play twice in the regular season, and he's already 1-0 against me. A win next week would make him 2-0 against me. Bring in Fury, and you have to have a 3-way tiebreaker. Dawg would be 3-0 against me/Fury. I would be 1-2 against Dawg/Fury. And Fury would be 0-2 against Dawg/me. My understanding of most tiebreakers is that this would grant the 5 seed to Dawg and then we'd rerun the H2H tiebreaker with him removed, so it was ONLY Fury and I. Since I'm 1-0 against Fury, I would win that tiebreaker and get the 6 seed.

So if I win tonight, I don't think it matters what happens to Dawg. I'm in.

But if I lose tonight:

• Losing tonight and losing to Dawg next weeks puts me at 6-8. Not even going to run tiebreakers on that. And if Fury wins next week, I'd be mathematically eliminated anyway.
• Losing tonight and beating Dawg if he wins tonight: Similar to the second scenario above. We'll both be 7-7. If Fury loses next week, Dawg and I are in. If Fury wins next week, we have a 3-way tiebreaker. I'd be 2-1 against Dawg/Fury, Dawg would be 2-1 against Fury/me, and Fury would be 0-2 against Dawg/me. Which should eliminate Fury, and we'd rerun the tiebreaker. But then Dawg and I would be 1-1 H2H, so we need to go farther. I *think* the next tiebreaker would be points scored where I have an advantage, so I think I'd be 5 seed and Dawg 6 seed.
• Losing tonight and beating Dawg if he loses tonight: Well that would make me 7-7 and Dawg 6-8. Which would get me into the playoffs. Fury getting a win to also be 7-7 would get Fury into the playoffs. If Fury lost, there would be a crazy 6-8 tie for the final playoff spot, and I'm not running tiebreakers on that.

So if I lose tonight but win H2H against Dawg next week, I should be in.

So I don't think I have a rooting interest in the Big Gulps / Dawg Pound matchup tonight. I think all that matters to me is that I preserve my 70-point lead with Ridley/McManus over Hop To It who is rolling out Lawrence/McPherson tonight. Essentially if Trevor Lawrence has a really big night tonight, I just really need to hope that at least some of it is passes to Ridley.

 

[pshankstar]

All I know is my run is coming too late to control my own destiny but it sure throws a wrench into things if anything. A small wrench but it keeps things interesting.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

All I know is my run is coming too late to control my own destiny but it sure throws a wrench into things if anything. A small wrench but it keeps things interesting.

Scratch everything I wrote about tiebreakers. I didn't realize the Muggers could also cause this to be a potential four-way tie at 7-7... I haven't looked at how that plays out...

Depending on the results tonight, I'll try to address that in tomorrow's overview.

 

[TallDan]

Mixon stopped me from clinching a playoff spot in this league AND killed my narrow shot at the playoffs in my other league. Punk.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Mixon stopped me from clinching a playoff spot in this league AND killed my narrow shot at the playoffs in my other league. Punk.

Think you're good to go. You're 3-0 against Dawg, IPA/Blonde, and Fury. You win any tiebreakers at 7-7 that you'll face.

 

[TallDan]

Think you're good to go. You're 3-0 against Dawg, IPA/Blonde, and Fury. You win any tiebreakers at 7-7 that you'll face.

Didn’t realize that but (of course) you’re right. And with a quick check, the playoff field is set with matchups TBD. The big one this week is bones and barflies playing for the bye.

 

[TallDan]

…and it’s rough for finger lakes who has the most overall points right now but doesn’t make the playoffs.

 

[pshankstar]

…and it’s rough for finger lakes who has the most overall points right now but doesn’t make the playoffs.

But if Dawg Pound & Big Gulps both lose and I win this week, then I get into the playoffs as the last seed, right?

 

[TallDan]

But if Dawg Pound & Big Gulps both lose and I win this week, then I get into the playoffs as the last seed, right?

You’re right. I thought they played each other so that couldn’t happen, but I was looking at the wrong week.

This is why @betarhoalphadelta is the analyst!

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

LOl... So we gotta start this week with 1 thing...

Bones just scored 199.88 points in a single week. To which I gotta say...

Well done! Highest point total of the year. We don't have any league prizes to give for that, Bones, but if we ever meet in person, I'll buy ya a beer. Impressive!

Week 13 Results

• Prestige Worldwide (10-3) def Beer is my Patronus (5-8), 153.28 to 135.98: This one was settled by the end of Sunday night, as neither team had anyone going Monday. Prestige was led by Tyreek Hill, Nico Collins, and Puka Nacua all having great games, while Patronus had massive bye and injury problems, resulting in zeroes on the board from Royce Freeman and Robert Woods, who wouldn't have been in the starting lineup most week. I'll cover the playoff outcomes below, but we already knew Prestige was in, and Patronus might still be on life support for a way in.
• Bones are their Money (9-4) def Milwaukee Muggers (7-6), 199.88 to 143.04: Muggers just flat out ran into a buzzsaw. As mentioned, this one saw Muggers holding a 1 point lead into MNF, but up against Ja'Maar Chase and Joe Mixon, with only Tee Higgins remaining for Muggers. Chase and Mixon combined for almost 75 points, to turn this into a rout. Bones was already safe for the playoffs, while we'll discuss the Muggers' potential playoff scenarios below.
• Bar Flies (9-4) def Beer with Mahomeys (5-8), 155.76 to 139.80: This was also settled by Sunday night. Mahomeys got massive scores out of DK Metcalf, the Chargers DST, and James Conner, but it wasn't enough. Bar Flies didn't get points where I'd expect them (Cowboys DST, Jahmyr Gibbs), but got a huge game from Brock Purdy (which was really all Deebo, but Brock gave him the ball), and strong performances from Devonta Smith, Rachaad White, Jake Ferguson, Zach Charbonnet, and even the kicker, Brandon Aubrey, to take this one down. A true team effort. Bar Flies was already safe for the playoffs, and Mahomeys will be on life support from here.
• Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (7-6) def Hop To It (4-9), 139.62 to 102.12: Both teams had some bye weeks from key players, and neither team had a very impressive score overall, but IPA/Blonde was sitting on a commanding 70-point lead going into MNF. Hop To It had Trevor Lawrence and Evan McPherson remaining, while IPA/Blonde had Calvin Ridley and Brandon McManus. It was going to be nearly impossible for Hop to come back and win this, but Trevor Lawrence was knocked out of the game with a potentially devastating ankle injury, and that's all she wrote. IPA/Blonde's playoff options will be covered below, but this is the end of the line for Hop To It. Hop is now eliminated from the playoff race at 4-8.
• Finger Lakes Fury (6-7) def fill my Kupp (4-9), 167.30 to 118.30: And the Fury Train keeps on rollin'. Fury had a massive lead going into MNF with one player left to go and none playing on Kupp's roster, so this was a foregone conclusion at that point. Big days for Tua, Derrick Henry, Michael Pittman and Christian Watson powered the Fury over Kupp. We'll cover the potential playoff scenarios for Fury below, but this is also the end of the road for Kupp, who is now eliminated from the playoffs at 4-8.
• Big Gulps (5-7) def Dawg Pound (6-7), 130.12 to 119.98: I suspect this was a somewhat stressful Monday Night for both teams. Big Gulps was done, with relatively even scoring across the roster behind leaders Jalen Hurts, Kyren Williams, and DeAndre Hopkins. Dawg was down by a substantial amount, but had Travis Etienne, Zay Jones, and Christian Kirk all going on Monday night. Dawg was projected a mere 7 points behind Big Gulps going into MNF. Etienne and Jones held up their end of the bargain, scoring over 30 combined, but Christian Kirk was lost to injury in the first quarter with only 3.6 points and did not return. That was enough, and Big Gulps got the win to stay on life support for the playoffs, while Dawg's road got a little harder.

Playoff Picture

First round bye locked up

Prestige Worldwide (10-3) has now secured either the #1 or #2 seed and a first round bye. If Prestige wins this week, it will automatically be the #1 seed. If Prestige loses this week, the outcome will be decided by...

Playing for a first-round bye

Bar Flies (9-4) and Bones are their Money (9-4) face each other this week. The winner of the matchup will have either the #1 or #2 seed and a first round bye. If Prestige wins, the winner is automatically #2. If Prestige loses, however, it depends on who wins. Bones beat Prestige H2H, while Prestige beat Bar Flies H2H, so the best Bar Flies can do with a win is the #2 seed. Bones could take the #1 seed with a win and a Prestige loss.

The loser of this matchup is locked into the #3 seed, with a 2-game advantage over 4th place and one game to play.

The 7 (and 8) win outcomes

We have five teams who can finish at 7 wins or better. The Muggers (7-6) and IPA/Blonde (7-6) can advance to 8 wins and a lock with a win. Big Gulps (6-7), Dawg (6-7) and Fury (6-7) can get into the playoffs or a potential tiebreaker scenario with a win. IPA/Blonde and Dawg match up this week, so a Dawg win not only helps Dawg but it prevents IPA/Blonde from reaching 8 wins. Muggers faces Big Gulps this week, so a Gulps win not only helps Dawg but it prevents Muggers from reaching 8 wins.

Here are the tiebreaker scenarios that are relevant:

• Muggers loses (7-7) and Gulps (7-7) wins, IPA/Blonde loses (7-7) and Dawg wins (7-7), Fury wins (7-7): Now we need a H2H2H2H2H tiebreaker for 3 spots. Ugh. As best as I can tell, the first tiebreaker when you have multiple teams with the same winning record as each other and unequal games played between them is winning percentage amongst tied teams. As best as I can tell, Muggers is 4 and 1 (.800) against every other team which is the highest, and thus would advance. It would devolve to H2H2H2H with the remaining 4. The two teams leading here are Fury at 2-1 (0.667) and Dawg at 3-2 (.600), so Fury would advance. Now we have H2H2H between Dawg, Gulps, and IPA/Blonde. In this scenario Gulps would be 2-1 (.667), Dawg 2-2 (.500), and IPA/Blonde 1-2 (.333). Gulps would advance and Dawg and IPA/Blonde are out in the cold.
• Muggers loses (7-7) and Gulps wins (7-7), IPA/Blonde loses (7-7) and Dawg wins (7-7), Fury loses (6-8): Fury is out. We have H2H2H2H amongst the remaining for 3 spots. Muggers is 3-1 (.750) against the remaining three which is the best. Muggers advances. Amongst the remaining three, looks like Gulps is 2-1 (.667), Dawg is 2-2 (.500), and IPA/Blonde is 1-2 (.333), so Gulps advances. Then it's H2H and in this scenario Dawg is 2-0 over IPA/Blonde, so Dawg advances and IPA/Blonde is eliminated.
• Muggers win (8-6) and Gulps (6-8) loses, IPA/Blonde loses (7-7) and Dawg wins (7-7), Fury wins (7-7): Muggers advances and isn't part of the tiebreaker. Gulps is out. Based on H2H2H record, Dawg would then be 3-0 (1.000) against IPA/Blonde and Fury. IPA/Blonde would be 0-3 (.000) against Dawg and Fury. And Fury would be 1-2 (.333) against Dawg and IPA/Blonde. Dawg advances, and we replay the tiebreaker H2H between IPA/Blonde and Fury. IPA/Blonde and Fury only faced once, with Fury winning. Thus Fury advances and IPA/Blonde is eliminated.
• Muggers loses (7-7) and Gulps (7-7) wins, IPA/Blonde wins (8-6) and Dawg loses (6-8), Fury wins (7-7): IPA/Blonde advances, and we have a 3-way between Muggers, Gulps, and Fury, for 2 playoff spots. Muggers is 2-1 (.667) here, Gulps is 1-2 (.333), and Fury 0-2 (.000), so Muggers advances. It then comes down to H2H with Gulps and Fury, and Gulps advances. Fury is out.

I left out both Muggers and IPA/Blonde winning, because then Gulps and Dawg don't get to 7 wins and Fury's outcome is based purely on their own game (win and you're in). And if Fury also loses, then there are zero 7-7 teams and the final spot comes down to 6-8 tiebreakers. I also left out Muggers winning, IPA/Blonde losing, and Fury losing, because then IPA/Blonde and Dawg both get in at 7-7 and there is no need for tiebreakers.

So for each team:

• Muggers: Appears to be in the playoffs in every scenario, even with a loss, no matter what happens. Congrats!
• IPA/Blonde: In the playoffs with a win. With a loss, requires the Muggers to win and Fury to lose to get in a 7-7 with no tiebreaker needed. Loses all tiebreakers.
• Gulps: In with a win. Gulps wins all possible tiebreakers if they get to 7-7.
• Dawg: Winning isn't enough. With a win, Dawg is in unless Muggers loses and Fury wins, as Dawg is left out in a 5-way tie.
• Fury: Winning isn't enough. Fury is in with a 5-way tiebreaker. Fury is in with a win and an IPA/Blonde loss, advancing in a Fury/IPA/Dawg tiebreaker. But Fury is out if IPA/Blonde wins and Muggers loses, not advancing in a Fury/Muggers/Gulps tiebreaker.

Holy crap that's confusing. Someone check my math on this maybe?

The 6-win scenario

All the above doesn't mean you need 7 wins to get in. If Gulps, Dawg, and Fury all lose, then Patronus has won (facing Fury this week) to get to 6-8, and Mahomeys only needs to beat Kupp to make it a 5-way tie at 6-8, or a Mahomeys loss makes it a 4-way tie at 6-8.

Sorry. I'm not doing those tiebreaker. My brain is broken. If anyone else wants to take it on, be my guest.

But suffice to say, the three teams currently sitting at 5-8 are NOT out of it.

Week 14 Preview

• Prestige Worldwide (10-3) v Hop To It (4-8): Honestly not much to talk about here. Prestige already has locked up the first round bye, and it's just a matter of whether they make the #1 or #2 seed, and could still end up #1 with a loss. Hop To It is out of it entirely.
• Bar Flies (9-4) v Bones are their Money (9-4): The winner of this game gets to avoid the quarterfinal and jump straight into the semis with a bye. Given how crazy fantasy can be and one bad week in the playoffs can send you packing, that's a massive advantage. So a lot on the line here. No apparent bye week issues for the final bye week of the season. Should be a good matchup!
• Milwaukee Muggers (7-6) v Big Gulps (6-7): Not a very important matchup for the Muggers. They are in for the playoffs even with a loss if my math is right, and even further is locked into the 4 seed in every scenario except IPA/Blonde winning and the Muggers losing. But in that scenario, IPA/Blonde would be the 4 and Muggers would be the 5, and the 4/5 seeds face each other anyway, so there's no difference. Not so for Big Gulps. A win locks Big Gulps into the playoffs, and a loss requires a LOT of other things to happen just to have a chance at a tiebreaker at 6-8, so this is critical. Big game here, at least for one of the two teams!
• Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (7-6) v Dawg Pound (6-7): Critical game for both teams. IPA/Blonde is into the playoffs with a win, but loses all tiebreakers with a loss. The only way IPA/Blonde can make the playoffs with a loss is with a Muggers win AND a Fury loss. For Dawg, it's similar. Losing here means a lot has to happen outside just for a shot at a 6-8 tiebreaker, but a win--while not sufficient to guarantee a playoff spot--makes the playoffs MUCH more likely. Both teams have to be thinking must-win here. IPA/Blonde for a guarantee of a spot and not having to rely on any outside help, and Dawg because the outside help needed in case of a loss is a VERY long shot scenario.
• Finger Lakes Fury (6-7) v Beer is my Patronus (5-8): This is obviously a must-win for Patronus. A Fury win means not only that 6-8 isn't enough to get into a tiebreaker, but that Patronus would be 5-9 and outside that tiebreaker anyway. So the importance can't be overstated. For Fury, a loss only gives a long shot scenario at the playoffs, while a win--also not sufficient--ensures that you have much better odds of winning the tiebreaker. And if both Muggers and IPA/Blonde win, a win for Fury requires no tiebreaker to get that playoff spot. Fury is the top-scoring team in the league to date, but really needs to be shooting for a win and not trying to rely on a 6-8 tiebreaker. Fury's last 3 wins have come against teams that wouldn't be involved in a potential 6-8 tiebreaker, drastically reducing the odds of getting in.
• Beer with Mahomeys (5-8) v fill my Kupp (4-9): Life support for Mahomeys and Kupp is out entirely. Must-win for Mahomeys to have a piece of a potential long shot 6-8 tie, but even a win will be for naught if any of the 6-7 teams win this week. Luckily they're facing a team in Kupp with their starting QB on bye, which helps the odds.

So that's it. We're in the final week. 4 teams are locked for the playoffs, and two spots up for grabs. It's been a long hard season, but this week determines who is definitely shipping beer and who still has a shot at receiving some!

 

[pshankstar]

Impressive write up @betarhoalphadelta and wow!! Much appreciated too!

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

I should point out... There appears to be NO documentation for what NFL.com does regarding tiebreakers. The little bit that I found suggested that they do it this way, but I did more research and it appears they may NOT do an iterative process where they remove the seed that advances and then re-run the calculation based on remaining tied teams.

So maybe it's all BS...

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

And it all comes down to MNF...

• Prestige (10-3), who failed to start a TE and is projected to lose to Hop To It, still has a chance with Tyreek Hill left to play to lock up the top seed with a win. However, it's probably a moot point, and Prestige is likely to still gain the top seed even in a loss because...
• Bar Flies (9-4) leads Bones (9-4) by 16 points with both of their defenses left to play. Bar Flies has the Packers defense against the Danny DeVito-led Giants, whereas Bones has the Dolphins defense in what might end up a shootout with the TItans. Unless craziness ensues, Bar Flies likely wins tonight and yet loses the H2H tiebreaker* if Prestige loses to secure the #2 seed. But that seed still confers a first-round bye, so it's an important distinction.
• Muggers (7-6) trails Big Gulps (6-7) by ~14. Muggers has 3 players left to go tonight to Gulps' 2. Gulps is projected to win, but it's still anyone's matchup. By my understanding of the tiebreakers*, Muggers is already in the playoffs with a loss and Gulps gets in with a win, while Gulps is almost assuredly out with a loss.
• IPA/Blonde (7-6) trails Dawg Pound (6-7) by just over 15. Dawg is done for the night, while IPA/Blonde has Romeo Doubs from the Packers left to go. IPA/Blonde needs Doubs to exceed projection by 4 points to close that gap. So it's still anyone's game. IPA/Blonde is believed to be in the playoffs with a win but likely out with a loss (due to tiebreakers*), whereas Dawg even with a win may depend on the tiebreakers* and what happens in...
• Fury (6-7) trails Patronus (5-8) by a little over 15. Patronus is done for the night, and Fury has Derrick Henry and De'von Achane. Projection-wise, Fury is expected to close that gap and then some. If all projections hold and we have a 3-way tie, my understanding of the tiebreakers* is that Fury is in with a win. However, a win may not be enough depending on other outcomes.

So we still have 5 teams fighting for the final 3 playoff spots, with nothing decided until the games go final tonight.

Good luck all!

Spoiler

* As I've stated, NFL.com does NOT document their tiebreakers. The method I described last week (iterative process comparing H2H amongst tied teams by win percentage, and removing teams as they secure their spot and re-running with remaining teams) would yield my understanding of how H2H works. However, I have found one discussion online where they merely run a single-pass of H2H amongst tied teams by win percentage, and if for example we had 5 teams tied for 3 spots they'd just take the top three without iterating through. I've also seen that if teams do not have equal number of games amongst tied teams--and we do not--apparently ESPN.com just defaults to points scored as the second tiebreaker. I don't know if NFL.com does that. So my tiebreaker knowledge might be wrong.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Well, we have our 5-way tie for 3 playoff spots.

In a few hours, we'll find out NFL.com's tiebreaker rules.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Well, I guess I predicted the tiebreaker correctly.

Congratulations to Fury for making the playoffs! What seemed like an insurmountable task back when sitting on a 2-7 record turned into a 5-game winning streak, a 7-7 finish, and the right things happening tiebreaker-wise to get there. Of course, it requires extending that streak by two more wins to be receiving, rather than shipping, beer. And three to receive LOTS of beer.

So with that preamble, let's review how the 6 who got in got there:

• Hop To It (5-9) def Prestige Worldwide (10-4), 138.26 to 110.44: A rather lackluster matchup as Prestige had already locked up one of the top two seeds and a first round bye. Prestige didn't even bother replacing Logan Thomas who was on bye in their starting lineup. The loss ended up not mattering as Prestige still carries the #1 seed into the playoffs.
• Bar Flies (10-4) def Bones are their Money (9-5), 143.12 to 136.04: This one was a nailbiter! Bones jumped out to a lead in the 1 ET games on Sunday, but Bar Flies closed that gap in the 4 PM games and in Sunday Night Football. On Monday night, both teams still had only their defenses remaining, with Bar Flies now up 16 points. But Bones' Dolphins defense started going nuts, even scoring a defensive touchdown, while the Packers did very little to stop Danny DeVito and the Giants. At one point I believe the Dolphins defense had as many as 18 points on the board. In the end, though, Bar Flies scored just enough to keep the lead, as Bones' defense started giving up points and their total dropped. Bar Flies secures the #2 slot and a first round bye, which may come in handy as #1 overall draft pick Justin Jefferson left the game due to injury and is day-to-day.
• Big Gulps (7-7) def Milwaukee Muggers (7-7), 126.78 to 108.72: This one came down to Monday Night, with the Muggers having three players going and Big Gulps having two. Gulps had a lead and extended, led by a big game by De'Andre Hopkins. Muggers had a big game from Raheem Mostert as well, but it wasn't enough to close the gap. Muggers (by my reckoning) was already a playoff lock and the only question was seeding, so they secure the #4 seed. Gulps needed this win, and slips into the #6 seed.
• Finger Lakes Fury (7-7) def Beer is my Patronus (5-9), 163.62 to 149.84: As mentioned, Fury was sitting at 2-7 just 5 weeks back, despite being one of the leagues top-scoring teams at that point. Well, five straight wins later, Fury is going to the playoffs! Patronus had a big day from Lamar Jackson, but Fury got double-digit scoring from all but one player. Patronus was not so lucky, getting a goose egg from Taysom Hill who was ruled out prior to the game and a negative score from kicker Matt Gay. Fury slots into the #5 seed.
• Dawg Pound (7-7) def Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (7-7), 121.02 to 112.94: What was a stressful matchup for both teams resulted in them gaining the #1 and #2 seeds and a first round bye... In the consolation bracket. Dawg got off to a dreadful start with Demario Douglas in the starting lineup on Thursday despite being declared inactive. Both teams had rather pedestrian scoring, well below their season averages, but Dawg built a lead going into Monday Night Football that IPA/Blonde couldn't surmount. IPA/Blonde would have made the playoffs with a win but lost all tiebreakers at 7-7, and didn't get help from the Muggers or Patronus to avoid a tiebreaker. Dawg likewise needed a win and help from others to secure the right tiebreaker, and didn't get it.

So we're at the playoffs. This weeks matchups:

• #1 seed, Prestige Worldwide: With the bye, there's no stress this week. Next week they will face the winner of the Muggers/Fury matchup.
• #2 seed, Bar Flies: Same, a stress-free week. Next week will face the winner of the Bones/Gulps matchup
• #3 Bones are their Money vs #6 Big Gulps: Bones, led by Dak Prescott, Ja'Marr Chase, and a possibly resurgent Cooper Kupp, face of with Gulps and Jalen Hurts, De'Andre Hopkins, and a Bijan Robinson who is finally getting fed by the coaching staff. This should be a star-studded matchup and worth the price of admission.
• #4 Milwaukee Muggers vs #5 Finger Lakes Fury: Can the Fury keep the streak alive, or will they fall to the Muggers? It might be the battle of the Josh[ua]'s, with Joshua Dobbs having a degree in aerospace engineering and the only wings Josh Allen are familiar with are Buffalo wings. Or it might come down to the question of whether Raheem Mostert or De'Von Achane gets the points in the high-flying Miami offense. But both teams will at least know their fate on Sunday night, as neither team has any players currently on the roster, much less the starting lineup, in the Monday night slate.

Good luck to all!

 

[pshankstar]

Thank you @betarhoalphadelta for the write ups! I did it, now hopefully I keep it going.

 

[TallDan]

No Joshua battle in Jericho or anywhere else since Dobbs got benched. I need ol’ Rusty to get hot.

 

[pshankstar]

No Joshua battle in Jericho or anywhere else since Dobbs got benched. I need ol’ Rusty to get hot.

I’m looking to keep my streak going @TallDan and ol’ rusty wont stop it!

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

The Passtronaut got benched? What is the world coming to?

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

For those of you playing in multiple leagues, how are you doing elsewhere?

As I've mentioned, my other league is a 20-team monstrosity. Which has been... Insane. At one point I was rostering my backup QB's backup QB, because the backup was Mac Jones and I was worried he'd be benched for Bailey Zappe on my starter's (Dak's) bye week. I often don't even roster a backup QB in most leagues. Since the bye I've traded Jones away but now I'm rostering *both* of Dak's backups on the off chance that if Dak gets injured they'd start Trey Lance over Cooper Rush lol... The league has multiple trades every week, the waiver wire is bare, and you're sometimes relying on starting players that aren't even rostered in this league lol. It's been an adventure!

But I managed to finish first in my division and have a bye this week for the start of the playoffs. And this league gives a monetary payout for division winners, which covered my entry fee and should give me a little head start on the beer I need to buy for whoever wins this league. A few more wins to get into the top 3 spots and I could be looking at a nice payout on top of it. Finishing in the top 3 over there would certainly take the sting away of not making the playoffs here lol...

 

[gromitdj]

I'm only in one other league. I'm doing better than I did here, making the playoffs in the #4 spot. It's a 12 team league with about the same level of transactions as here. (not much)

Keeping my fingers crossed.