Operation: find the shittiest deal on beer Advocate

[JulianB1]

Do these things get more complicated than just compound probabilities for satellites or whatever people are doing? I'm actually really intrigued.

Yeah it's actually very interesting (mathematically) and tricky, in fact I haven't fully solved it yet. I created a spreadsheet to list outcomes and the associated probabilities and expected values. There's an error somewhere because the total probability in the more complicated formulation of the game is only adding up to 99.5%, not 100%, so I'm either missing a possible outcome (an error I had yesterday but have since corrected), or I'm not calculating some of the probabilities correctly (most likely due to missing combination effects). But I'm close enough to a complete solution to answer the original question I was posed, which was whether or not there was an advantage to having 2 spots (and wagering twice as much) rather than 1. The answer (predictably) is no: the expected value of the game is always 0 since it's just money moving around a closed system. But having 2 numbers does (again, not surprisingly) increase the probabilities of various "big win" outcomes.

 

[Kasher]

Yeah it's actually very interesting (mathematically) and tricky, in fact I haven't fully solved it yet. I created a spreadsheet to list outcomes and the associated probabilities and expected values. There's an error somewhere because the total probability in the more complicated formulation of the game is only adding up to 99.5%, not 100%, so I'm either missing a possible outcome (an error I had yesterday but have since corrected), or I'm not calculating some of the probabilities correctly (most likely due to missing combination effects). But I'm close enough to a complete solution to answer the original question I was posed, which was whether or not there was an advantage to having 2 spots (and wagering twice as much) rather than 1. The answer (predictably) is no: the expected value of the game is always 0 since it's just money moving around a closed system. But having 2 numbers does (again, not surprisingly) increase the probabilities of various "big win" outcomes.

Julian, pls.

 

[BadJustin]

Yeah it's actually very interesting (mathematically) and tricky, in fact I haven't fully solved it yet. I created a spreadsheet to list outcomes and the associated probabilities and expected values. There's an error somewhere because the total probability in the more complicated formulation of the game is only adding up to 99.5%, not 100%, so I'm either missing a possible outcome (an error I had yesterday but have since corrected), or I'm not calculating some of the probabilities correctly (most likely due to missing combination effects). But I'm close enough to a complete solution to answer the original question I was posed, which was whether or not there was an advantage to having 2 spots (and wagering twice as much) rather than 1. The answer (predictably) is no: the expected value of the game is always 0 since it's just money moving around a closed system. But having 2 numbers does (again, not surprisingly) increase the probabilities of various "big win" outcomes.

I was told there would be no math.

 

[iamjeff6]

Yeah it's actually very interesting (mathematically) and tricky, in fact I haven't fully solved it yet. I created a spreadsheet to list outcomes and the associated probabilities and expected values. There's an error somewhere because the total probability in the more complicated formulation of the game is only adding up to 99.5%, not 100%, so I'm either missing a possible outcome (an error I had yesterday but have since corrected), or I'm not calculating some of the probabilities correctly (most likely due to missing combination effects). But I'm close enough to a complete solution to answer the original question I was posed, which was whether or not there was an advantage to having 2 spots (and wagering twice as much) rather than 1. The answer (predictably) is no: the expected value of the game is always 0 since it's just money moving around a closed system. But having 2 numbers does (again, not surprisingly) increase the probabilities of various "big win" outcomes.

 

[Cruize4Gueuze]

In this age of fake news / hyperbole / shenanigans... wouldn't it be possible the 'buyer' of 15 razzle spots @ $500 per for the Vanilla Assassin is just some devious chum of the seller scheming to up the stupid black market value of that beer?

Rigging the market...

100% of Kbbs b1 & b2 bottles have been razzled at least 5 times with a 5% increase each time. the best part is when people refer to them as ghost whales, even though one gets posted once a week.

 

[MikeG1]

100% of Kbbs b1 & b2 bottles have been razzled at least 5 times with a 5% increase each time. the best part is when people refer to them as ghost whales, even though one gets posted once a week.

110%. You're forgetting about the recapped KBBS

 

[BadJustin]

110%. You're forgetting about the recapped KBBS

Some of those are still in circulation one would assume?

 

[ewwiccc]

ISO: Westly, Beatification FT: DL 17, list
Discussion in 'ISO:FT' started by countrypeddler8, Today at 12:23 PM.

Watch Thread
Go to First Unread

1. 
   countrypeddler8Initiate (149)Dec 19, 2016Illinois
   Beer Trader
   Newalso FT:
   
   King Sue
   DDH Sue
   Sosus
   BA Behemoth
   
   Cheers
   
   #1countrypeddler8, Today at 12:23 PM

hmmmmmmmm

 

[ewwiccc]

ISO: Westly, Beatification FT: DL 17, list
Discussion in 'ISO:FT' started by countrypeddler8, Today at 12:23 PM.

Watch Thread
Go to First Unread

1. 
   countrypeddler8Initiate (149)Dec 19, 2016Illinois
   Beer Trader
   Newalso FT:
   
   King Sue
   DDH Sue
   Sosus
   BA Behemoth
   
   Cheers
   
   #1countrypeddler8, Today at 12:23 PM

hmmmmmmmm

Strangely similar to this one....

I know some of the DL variants aren't as popular but are any really going for hops

ISO: Chemtrail, Ronaldo, Dia Oscuro, BA DL FT: List
Discussion in 'ISO:FT' started by boogerisu, 7 minutes ago.

Watch Thread
Go to First Unread

1. 
   boogerisuDevotee (462)Aug 19, 2014Iowa
   Beer Trader
   NewKing Sue
   Sosus
   DDH Pseudo Sue
   XhopsPink
   
   4:1 for any of the variants listed. Let me know if you're on the fence.
   
   #1boogerisu, 7 minutes ago

 

[ewwiccc]

So the bottle logic Fundamental Summation sale was this weekend. Shortly after the bottles sold out:

 

[MikeG1]

So the bottle logic Fundamental Summation sale was this weekend. Shortly after the bottles sold out:

 

[IndianaJones]

 

[regularjohn]

The buyer is part of a group that is doing what I guess would be called a white whale share.

 

[lopejuice1]

The buyer is part of a group that is doing what I guess would be called a white whale share.

thatsracist.meme

 

[amk1]

"Dear stranger, please do the Byzantine Vision exchange for me in a really limited amount of time. Thx lymi."

https://www.beeradvocate.com/community/threads/ft-byzantine-vision-iso-jtr-or-other.512757/

FT: Byzantine Vision ISO: JTR or other
Watch Thread

1. 
   Jinx989Aspirant (215)Apr 22, 2015Illinois
   Beer Trader
   I have a full bottle of Byzantine Vision someone could trade in before the end of May and I would like to get a Jam the Radar in return or other Bottle Logic beers but I would be open to other things as well. I have plenty of stuff to expand with.

 

[jrstar96]

"Dear stranger, please do the Byzantine Vision exchange for me in a really limited amount of time. Thx lymi."

https://www.beeradvocate.com/community/threads/ft-byzantine-vision-iso-jtr-or-other.512757/

FT: Byzantine Vision ISO: JTR or other
Watch Thread

1. 
   Jinx989Aspirant (215)Apr 22, 2015Illinois
   Beer Trader
   I have a full bottle of Byzantine Vision someone could trade in before the end of May and I would like to get a Jam the Radar in return or other Bottle Logic beers but I would be open to other things as well. I have plenty of stuff to expand with.

Don't forget they will also need to pay shipping one way, so it is really a great deal for someone!

 

[jeevo]

Is this the worst deal in this thread?

https://www.mybeercollectibles.com/...sour-fruit-very-sour-blackberry-or-vsb/244917

 

[regularjohn]

Is this the worst deal in this thread?

https://www.mybeercollectibles.com/...sour-fruit-very-sour-blackberry-or-vsb/244917

It was purchased by me at the 2013 New Glarus R&D release of VSB. Commonly considered the best American Sour ever made. Not many of these left in the wild.

 

[jeevo]

It was purchased by me at the 2013 New Glarus R&D release of VSB. Commonly considered the best American Sour ever made. Not many of these left in the wild.

I also just realized that I posted this in the incorrect thread. I forgot that we have specific threads for the different species of shitlords out there.

 

[brentsdodgers]

It was purchased by me at the 2013 New Glarus R&D release of VSB. Commonly considered the best American Sour ever made. Not many of these left in the wild.

Only thing missing is the original retail price. What was it 8? 10? Per bottle??

 

[4low]

4low

Wasn't me. But I'd sell mine for $7.5k if one really moved for that.

 

[Digita7693]

I think you should all really take a look at the IP International (specfically Belgium) trades. Every trade is iso: Zenne, Blabaer, lambic d'aunis, JCN, Zwanze, other one offs. FT: NE hops, DL, BCBS, random other **** I can find in 20minutes

I also like the ones who are on TB, but wouldn't dare post those trades on here and instead opt for RB or Ba, not in addition to, because they will be publicly shamed here


for example (2016 join date)
I'll be in Belgium for the week. Looking for some non shelf Cantillon and 3F.
High interest in Zenne, Fou, d'Aunis, blaber And other non shelf or seasonal.

Lots FT:

fresh tired hands- raspberry double milkshake, strawberry milkshake, alien church, next weeks release??
Monkish Foggy Window

And I'll give a good mix of bottles.
Ourison
Heavy Gem Virga
Oat potion
HF MC 6
Flora BBR
BCBS multi years
KBS multi years
Dark lord 16,17
Huna 16


OR

ISO: Bokkereyder, Drie Fonteinen and Cantillon seasonals or one-offs.

FT:

-Cycle 2017 Monday-Friday (weekday set)
-Funky Buddha BA Last Buffalo in the park
-Funky Buddha Maple Bacon Coffee Porter
-CCB Hunahpu 2016
-CCB Rum barrel-aged Kalevipoeg at the Gates of Hell Baltic porter
-CCB Dioscorides
-2015 Perennial Abraxas
-2015 Bourbon County Rare
-2016 Bcbs x3

 

[jrstar96]

I think you should all really take a look at the IP International (specfically Belgium) trades. Every trade is iso: Zenne, Blabaer, lambic d'aunis, JCN, Zwanze, other one offs. FT: NE hops, DL, BCBS, random other **** I can find in 20minutes

I also like the ones who are on TB, but wouldn't dare post those trades on here and instead opt for RB or Ba, not in addition to, because they will be publicly shamed here

Not disagreeing with the absurdity, but every day I see Facebook post for international trades of people in Europe
FT: lambic ISO: treehouse, bcbs, Florida pastry stouts, etc. Granted they are not offering Zenne, but they do offer seasonals and every shelf lambic (is this such a thing in Europe, I need to go back!). Just saying that it does seem a lot of Europeans are interested in these common trade baits and for what ever reason interested in having IPAs shipped internationally.

 

[Digita7693]

Not disagreeing with the absurdity, but every day I see Facebook post for international trades of people in Europe
FT: lambic ISO: treehouse, bcbs, Florida pastry stouts, etc. Granted they are not offering Zenne, but they do offer seasonals and every shelf lambic (is this such a thing in Europe, I need to go back!). Just saying that it does seem a lot of Europeans are interested in these common trade baits and for what ever reason interested in having IPAs shipped internationally.

There's a difference between I'll turn my bottle of FF or st Lam I got for $10 into 2x4packs of canned ipas and someone looking for ogv, Zenne, blabber etc for those 4 packs.

 

[Sheets3x]

Don't forget they will also need to pay shipping one way, so it is really a great deal for someone!

Yeah that one cracked me up.

 

[lcc]

does this mean he's equating "3 or 4" fundamental forces with 1 last buffalo?
or his not willing to trade any appervation until at least 3 FF are on the table? not worth the shipping to cali unless we're talking at least three fundy forces, brah.


FT: Appervation ISO: list

1. 
   JoeMarinelloAspirant (258)Apr 12, 2015Ohio
   SubscriberBeer Trader
   Just picked up an allotment of Jackie O's/Side Project Appervation. Willing to trade multiples for some of the below:
   
   Miami Madness
   Fundamental Summation x2
   Sunday Brunch
   Fundamental Forces - x3 or 4
   Last Buffalo
   Will take other offers.

 

[JCastle1]

does this mean he's equating "3 or 4" fundamental forces with 1 last buffalo?
or his not willing to trade any appervation until at least 3 FF are on the table? not worth the shipping to cali unless we're talking at least three fundy forces, brah.


FT: Appervation ISO: list

1. 
   JoeMarinelloAspirant (258)Apr 12, 2015Ohio
   SubscriberBeer Trader
   Just picked up an allotment of Jackie O's/Side Project Appervation. Willing to trade multiples for some of the below:
   
   Miami Madness
   Fundamental Summation x2
   Sunday Brunch
   Fundamental Forces - x3 or 4
   Last Buffalo
   Will take other offers.

3 or 4 Appervations for Fundamental Forces.

 

[JulianB1]

 

[Brew33]

Come on Ohio, we're better than this....

 

[jrstar96]

We need a worst facebook trade post. I already commented on this one pointing out that he basically would like to trade his allotment for a handjee, chemtrail, KdF, Sherry atrial, and Cable car. sounds like a good deal