Got back into brewing last august, this time small batch BIAB. Getting better each time. Some of those batches were the equivalent of finger paintings. Yeah, technically it's art, but only your friends and family will tell you it's good.
I currently have a John Palmer Elevenses (brown ale) partial mash from NB on tap and my best to date. While toasting the oats is pure genius, in addition to a good recipe I think it's better technique that comes with confidence from experience.
As I gained confidence constructing recipes using software, and got better at executing on brew day, I started to looking into two areas that seemed information over load when I first stated brewing:
Fermentation Temperature
I've been fortunate that my apartment temperature has been consistently 63° - 68°, but that will quickly change when the AC will be in the mid to upper 70's. I just ordered peltier cooling parts (10amps) to build an ale fermenting chamber. This won't due for lagers, however, I think it's a low cost solution to lower ambient temperature up to 15° and keep things in the low to mid 60's.
Water Profile
I took out of a lot of the guess work by reading my public water report. It's a bit soft and my pH strips are useless. While I may eventually spring for a pH meter, I am confident that am making small adjustments that put my mash in the mid range for balanced beer. This may or may not account for my results being more predictable, but I was missing them initially and the calculators were suggesting that that my pH wasn't in a desirable range for an efficient mash.
And on a last note, I mentioned the Palmer ale was my best to date. Funny thing about it, it pours from my tap at 45°- 47° with about 12psi carbonation and it tastes a slightly harsh dry and over carbonated. If I give it a few minutes to warm up a bit, all those unfermented sugars and other flavors come through to balance out that dry roast significantly, IMO, improving the taste to an extremely pleasurable experience. Interesting how a few degrees of serving temperature can change a good beer into a very good beer.