Hop shortage!

[tommyguner03]

do you think this could happen? who would of thought a shortage on hops?. well by reading this article .... http://www.esquire.com/blogs/food-for-men/the-future-of-hops-futures
everything makes since. maybe?.

 

[kh54s10]

Man that was hard to read. Not for the content but for the lousy writing.

Hop shortage - maybe. There is an increase in hops use... But there is also a large increase in hop farming. So??!!??!??

 

[Braufessor]

Like anything, there could be short term swings..... or swings in particular types of hops. Hop shortage= high price. High price= more hops grown. More hops grown = low price. Low price = less hops grown....... repeat.....

I can't see there being a long term shortage of something that is in high demand...

As with other things, it seems to me that the most likely reason for a hop shortage will not actually be a shortage of hops. The most likely reason will be irrational hoarding spurred by articles like this one.

 

[MarcusKillion]

there was a hop shortage after the homebrew really started getting popular . I think hops were mostly coming from europe . Hop growers starting sprouting up around america and they thought they could get in the money . They soon found out that it was a long and hard to get going and many went under . A while back there was a hop shortage I think it was due to drought or something .

 

[Darwin18]

Market manipulation in an attempt to drive up prices by artificially creating a shortage, or at least the perception of a shortage.

 

[MarcusKillion]

Like anything, there could be short term swings..... or swings in particular types of hops. Hop shortage= high price. High price= more hops grown. More hops grown = low price. Low price = less hops grown....... repeat.....

I can't see there being a long term shortage of something that is in high demand...

As with other things, it seems to me that the most likely reason for a hop shortage will not actually be a shortage of hops. The most likely reason will be irrational hoarding spurred by articles like this one.

just because I read the article and then cashed in all my savings bonds and sold everything I own and bought a train load of hops does not mean this article caused my hoarding , or the other people's hoarding . coincidence . got to go . i heard there is some hops for sale in the alley behind the bar.

 

[Braufessor]

...... got to go . i heard there is some hops for sale in the alley behind the bar.

Ha! You are too late. I bought them already

 

[B-Hoppy]

Market manipulation in an attempt to drive up prices by artificially creating a shortage, or at least the perception of a shortage.

It's actually a very real probability in the making. To most of us homebrewers, we see that our hobby has become mainstream, not like back in the late 80's when I started. This means more hops are being taken out of the pipeline, no brainer. We also see that small breweries are popping up all over our country at a pace that few thought possible, again,more hops used~no brainer. But a few years back, a fellow I know who works in the brewing industry mentioned that he'd just gotten back from S. America where he was doing some consulting on brewery instillations and told me that craft brewing was exploding in both Central and S. America. Since then, I've been watching what's been happening across Europe as the same thing is going on over there. These folks want to make American style beers so they need American hops.

The hop growers over here have been increasing their acreage over the past few years to try to keep up with demand, but can only do so at a certain rate (the number I've seen is 15% increased acreage/year) because of a number of factors. Hops are a very unique crop that require very specialized and expensive equipment, processing and storage facilities to produce. Different varieties of hops, like apples and other crops, come ripe at different times. This can be a negative in the picture because if the varieties in high demand all have to be harvested in a very small window of time and if there's not enough picking/drying capacity, the quality of those hops is going to be less than optimum.

There's lots of other articles available on the internets that point to these and other factors feeding this potential problem but I just don't have time to fish through and find them. And as someone mentioned, it's not a good idea to be hoarding hops which will hasten the problem. Sorry for the blather.

 

[Cajun_McChicken]

Like anything, there could be short term swings..... or swings in particular types of hops. Hop shortage= high price. High price= more hops grown. More hops grown = low price. Low price = less hops grown....... repeat.....

I can't see there being a long term shortage of something that is in high demand...

As with other things, it seems to me that the most likely reason for a hop shortage will not actually be a shortage of hops. The most likely reason will be irrational hoarding spurred by articles like this one.

Microeconomics FTW!

 

[Phunhog]

There will always be a shortage of whatever the popular hop at the moment is. However I buy hops by the pound and you will be surprised about how many varieties you can get for less than ten dollars a lb (Columbus, Mt. Hood, etc..)

 

[Teromous]

Back in 2008 we did have a hops shortage. Here's an article about it from BYO. What sucks is that it wasn't just a "2008" thing. The whole hops shortage debacle had resounding effects on the market today. I don't have a specific article to cite but I was hearing from pro brewers on various podcasts from The Brewing Network talk about how they've had to increase contracts in anticipation of another hops shortage, especially with the more popular varieties.

 

[quincy07]

I was on my LHBS website last week as I was pricing out some ingredients and when I added 5 oz of Amarillo gold pellets to my cart it only added 2 and gave me a warning in red that due to a shortage in supply only 2 oz could be bought at a time. However, when I actually got to the store and asked for my hops they didn't even bat an eyelash at it.

 

[garcia]

I already went through this with ammo, but was prepared for that. I wouldn't be prepared for this.

 

[iaefebs]

It's that time of the year to order hop rhizomes. I thought the article covered most of the thoughts that I had about hops. The farmers need to decide if the hop demand will continue to increase before they commit to switching to more acreage of a crop. Will we still be drinking high hopped beers in three years? Will everyone switch to more malty flavor, less hopped beer?

 

[garcia]

It's because miller lite is being triple hopped. LOL

 

[The_Bishop]

It's all you beer hipsters with your hop-bomb IPA beers with a pound of hops per bottle!

 

[Zepth]

Will we still be drinking high hopped beers in three years? Will everyone switch to more malty flavor, less hopped beer?

At this point I could switch to pure malty beers quite easily. A nice sweet almost chewy brew that I could use as makeshift glue to hold a car part back on. I realize this choice may not be for everyone.

I could perceive if there was a long term complete epidemic the adaptable would survive. Find another bittering ingredient and alternate flavour ingredients. Careful selection of multiple fruit rinds could conceivably provide an acceptable citrus finish in a beer. Some styles may fall out of popularity or possibility. New styles may be invented or popularized. We'd get through it.

 

[MarcusKillion]

It's because miller lite is being triple hopped. LOL

I can smell them miller lite hops 2 blocks before I get to the liquor store

 

[Calichusetts]

I'd be more concerned with the quality of hops. Big breweries and established breweries get the first picks. Then the smaller breweries and homebrewers last...for the most part. There were a couple of less-than-optimal hop harvests this year.

 

[signpost]

The boom in craft breweries and homebrewing gets blamed for this problem. However, in the long run, craft breweries and homebrewers will be the reason that a large variety of high quality hops are available to anybody that wants them.

Of course, there will be some growing pains especially as the industry explodes in popularity like recent years. But 5 or 10 years down the line, we will have easy access to much more variety than we currently do.

Anybody that panics about a possible hop shortage is short-sighted and not a very creative brewer.

 

[B-Hoppy]

It's because miller lite is being triple hopped. LOL

Nice! But believe it or not, if miller wanted to up their hop profile just a tiny bit, it would be felt throughout the entire industry. Check out the hop report section of the minutes of this MBAA meeting: http://www.mbaa.com/districts/North...3-10-04_District_Business_meeting_minutes.pdf. During that time frame is when I contracted for my hop candy and my cost for Cascade went up 45% over what it was the year before. Was it because of Heineken, or some other factors? The big guys have a lot more connections within the industry than the little guys do, and can make their numbers come out close to the way they want. So when push comes to shove, the bottom tier will feel the pinch. The talk about a shortage is a real possibility.