In response to that LECG article.
Here are some things that I believe to be facts:
*BMC sales are not growing, or growing very slowly
*Beer sales are growing
*Therefore, non-BMC beer sales growth represent all beer sales growth
*BMC uses tons of adjuncts
Assumptions:
*non-BMC beer uses significantly less adjunct to make the same amount of beer
*since all beer sales growth is non-BMC, any growth in beer sales will create a higher relative demand for barley per beer produced
Defendable conclusion: One reason barley prices might be increasing is that America is drinking less BMC swill, so a smaller percentage of beer is made from corn and rice.
Conspiracy theory:
*BMC is the biggest customer of malt producers
*increase in malt prices will make BMC more cost competitive relative to high-malt beer producers
*BMC is happy about malt price increase, because they will either be able to raise beer prices more than competitors, or grow sales as sales of pricey high malt beers slows down.
*malt producers are happy to charge everyone more for malt
BMC has been in business for a long time people. They know how to compete. They make the best bland pilsner around, market better than Coca-cola, and have amazing supply and distirbution systems. I wouldn't put a little short-term market manipulation past them.