Big Giveaway Maths

[max384]

You lost me at Maths.

"Mathematics (from Greek μάθημα máthēma, “knowledge, study, learning”), often shortened to maths or math, is the study of..."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematics

 

[TheCADJockey]

"Mathematics (from Greek μάθημα máthēma, “knowledge, study, learning”), often shortened to maths or math, is the study of..."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematics

Oh. Thanks man. I was thinking of something completely different.

 

[IslandLizard]

I'd like to hear your explanation.

Think of a literal deck of cards. Even if you pull multiple cards at one time (the top 10 cards in the deck, for example), it's basically the same as pulling them one after the other (and not replacing them after). So, after each pull, the total number of cards decreases.

Yeah, you're right, the deck technically shrinks with each draw. I was thinking of something different.

BGBC +1
IslandLizard 0

 

[IslandLizard]

From the looks of it, Austin didn't use the online randomizer this time. He cut out the entries... Video coming within the next hour.

Anyone want to take a chance at predicting a win or not? Or is that taunting fate? Who's brave?

I predict a "no win" for myself.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Never tell me the odds!
-Han Solo

 

[balrog]

If you're married, you're right in thinking that you're never right, and the odds that you're not right don't rightly add up no matter the rightness. Then again, I've been known to be wrong.

 

[marcownz747]

Most statisticians will simply reduce 45/2880 to 1/64 without a 2nd thought, but I tend to differ. For example, look at Poisson's theories.

While I would normally rather break this up by using a 1/2880 chance, a 1/2879 chance, a 1/2878 chance, and so on until 45 cards have been drawn... due to the uncertain nature of the exact number of posts (As a number have been cut out due to double posting, posting without having membership, or posting with membership but losing it before the drawing), I'm fairly comfortable viewing it more as a 1/64 chance of winning.

If I had the exact numbers, I'd love to do the specific number crunching. Maybe next year I'll try to do something in the way of that. I just wanted to give a very basic, rough estimate as to the chances a person would have at being pulled.

 

[hunter_le five]

I've the lucky avatar.

I are winner.

.

 

[yeastylad]

I've the lucky avatar.

I are winner.

.

And you posted this at 4:20pm on 4/20, which means you super high!:fro:

 

[hunter_le five]

And you posted this at 4:20pm on 4/20, which means you super high!:fro:

Not quite. I'm on CST.

 

[Psylocide]

Not quite. I'm on CST.

That a new strain or something? Never heard of it.

 

[CA_Mouse]

If you're married, you're right in thinking that you're never right, and the odds that you're not right don't rightly add up no matter the rightness. Then again, I've been known to be wrong.

If he is married, then it is implied that he is never correct. So, he therefore couldn't be correct in thinking that he is never correct.

*note* I've been married for 30 years.... I *know* I am never right!

 

[yeastylad]

Not quite. I'm on CST.

Aaaaah, my bad.

I just watched the Youtube winner video. Turns out I am winner of the Fastlabel kit. Yipee!

 

[hunter_le five]

I are not the winner

 

[CA_Mouse]

I was a 3rd or 4th drawing winner last year. Hit a blank on the first draw again this year.

 

[Psylocide]

Yet another confirmation that yes, I am a loser.

 

[firerat]

I didn't win.

The odds of me winning in the first drawing assuming everyone claims is now 0.

Dats maf......

 

[kenoglass]

zero for me....

 

[BGBC]

I are not the winner

Spoke too soon.

 

[hunter_le five]

Spoke too soon.

I are winner kinda!

 

[Punity]

Boom!! CF chiller ill take that baby

 

[Orthobrewsky]

Ok. Stay with me. This article has a pretty good explanation

http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/91998/probability-of-winning-a-prize-in-a-raffle

I'm using the easier equation, the one that says 'assume that the prizes are drawn with replacement'

In that case, the math is based on the probabiity of losing, as in, you have 2779/2880 chance of losing the first drawing. Over 45 drawings, it approximates to -> P-loss = (2779/2880)^45 = 0.9845

We all have a 98.5% chance of losing! yaaaaay. Probability of winning is (1-0.9845)*100 = 1.55%

How close is this to the initial 1/64?

1/64 = 0.0156 .......or, very very close.

I'm a university math professor and I approve the above post. Well done.

 

[ZebulonBrewer]

I'm a university math professor and I approve the above post. Well done.

Glad i got it right

Unfortunately I didn't win. I'll have better luck next year!

 

[Frilock]

Bah, not a winner. Congratz to those who are!

 

[DU99]

well done to those who got a prize..

 

[CA_Mouse]

Well blanked on the second draw as well! Congrats to everyone that won!

 

[Frilock]

Two time loser....YAY!

 

[Orthobrewsky]

I won! Yes, I won an online, go-at-my-own-pace course in brewing that first batch of beer with confidence. Now, if only I could transfer this prize to myself back in the 20th century...On the other hand, that guy preferred to just read stuff...hmmm...

I'm a winner!

 

[Punity]

Yay for wins!!

 

[chisena]

Probably should have invested $19 in PowerBall