Big Giveaway Maths

[Psylocide]

Not quite. I'm on CST.

That a new strain or something? Never heard of it.

 

[CA_Mouse]

If you're married, you're right in thinking that you're never right, and the odds that you're not right don't rightly add up no matter the rightness. Then again, I've been known to be wrong.

If he is married, then it is implied that he is never correct. So, he therefore couldn't be correct in thinking that he is never correct.

*note* I've been married for 30 years.... I *know* I am never right!

 

[yeastylad]

Not quite. I'm on CST.

Aaaaah, my bad.

I just watched the Youtube winner video. Turns out I am winner of the Fastlabel kit. Yipee!

 

[hunter_le five]

I are not the winner

 

[CA_Mouse]

I was a 3rd or 4th drawing winner last year. Hit a blank on the first draw again this year.

 

[Psylocide]

Yet another confirmation that yes, I am a loser.

 

[firerat]

I didn't win.

The odds of me winning in the first drawing assuming everyone claims is now 0.

Dats maf......

 

[kenoglass]

zero for me....

 

[BGBC]

I are not the winner

Spoke too soon.

 

[hunter_le five]

Spoke too soon.

I are winner kinda!

 

[Punity]

Boom!! CF chiller ill take that baby

 

[Orthobrewsky]

Ok. Stay with me. This article has a pretty good explanation

http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/91998/probability-of-winning-a-prize-in-a-raffle

I'm using the easier equation, the one that says 'assume that the prizes are drawn with replacement'

In that case, the math is based on the probabiity of losing, as in, you have 2779/2880 chance of losing the first drawing. Over 45 drawings, it approximates to -> P-loss = (2779/2880)^45 = 0.9845

We all have a 98.5% chance of losing! yaaaaay. Probability of winning is (1-0.9845)*100 = 1.55%

How close is this to the initial 1/64?

1/64 = 0.0156 .......or, very very close.

I'm a university math professor and I approve the above post. Well done.

 

[ZebulonBrewer]

I'm a university math professor and I approve the above post. Well done.

Glad i got it right

Unfortunately I didn't win. I'll have better luck next year!

 

[Frilock]

Bah, not a winner. Congratz to those who are!

 

[DU99]

well done to those who got a prize..

 

[CA_Mouse]

Well blanked on the second draw as well! Congrats to everyone that won!

 

[Frilock]

Two time loser....YAY!

 

[Orthobrewsky]

I won! Yes, I won an online, go-at-my-own-pace course in brewing that first batch of beer with confidence. Now, if only I could transfer this prize to myself back in the 20th century...On the other hand, that guy preferred to just read stuff...hmmm...

I'm a winner!

 

[Punity]

Yay for wins!!

 

[chisena]

Probably should have invested $19 in PowerBall

 

[CA_Mouse]

Well 3 rounds down...

 

[Orthobrewsky]

I have a friend who is homebrew curious and whose 10 year old son wants to be a brewer when he grows up and he said they would love to take the "Batch 1 and Beyond" course, so I feel like even more of a winner now than I already did.

Also, a couple of years ago I won a new keg, T-shirt, pint glass, and bottle opener from Keg Connection, so I'm pretty much a lucky duck.

 

[Tin4]

All prizes have been claimed! Just wanted you guys to know.

 

[funnycreature]

Odds could be 1:1 and I'd still not win
There's this saying "Sometimes you lose, sometimes others win" that seem to apply to me!

 

[rekoob]

Maybe next time.
Congrats to all the peeps that got something... and a huge thanks to Austin for another fantastic Giveaway!

 

[BGBC]

You are also all assuming that everyone claims their prizes, which never seems to happen (remarkably).

I'll take a shot in the dark and say that there will be 7 add'l names drawn before everything is claimed.

17, I meant 17.

So what were the final odds?