I'd certainly be in for a pound!
TL
TL
The hop shortage
- Thread starter eviljafar
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I'd be up for a pound of EKG, as well. They're selling off what, EKG and Tettnag?
ohiobrewtus
Well-Known Member
I was suprised to see a decent selection of hops at my LHBS at a reasonable price. I asked the owner how he managed to do it and he actually arranged a hop contract guaranteed to give him amounts approx equal to what he purchased last year. He still had some concerns, but didn't seem overly worried.
So if a small LHBS can arrange a hop contract, you'd think the big online guys could pull it off as well.
So if a small LHBS can arrange a hop contract, you'd think the big online guys could pull it off as well.
9/9
Collembola!
McKBrew said:
Isn't part of the problem that those contracts are really available right now? So, anyone (big online HBS or small LHBS) could have gotten them before, but it is too late now.
Getting the contracts now is a big problem and that won't be fixed until production goes up. It's possible that the big retailers did have a contract but due to shortage fears they sold out early. I don't really know.
9/9
Collembola!
Damn it. my post should read "Isn't part of the problem that those contracts aren't really available right now?"
Some days I just ain't too smart.
Some days I just ain't too smart.
[email protected]
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Hops are in short supply due to demand for farmers to grow corn for fuel. They get more $$ for corn. Also the European growers had a bad year. Shortage raised prices, brewers started stock pileing and created another shortage. Short supply = higher prices. Panic sets in and viola! Few hops available. I have a small shop near my home that has hops (except Fuggles) but if I told you where it was, they would have none. Your best bet is your local ingredient supplier, as many internet sources have dried up.
menschmaschine
Well-Known Member
Kubed
Well-Known Member
I don't think so. Some of the articles I've read have talked about farmers changing their hop fields over to corn.menschmaschine said:I think you're confusing hops with barley.
Chriso
Broken Robot Brewing Co.
The problem with the corn argument is that corn prices are not great either. There are some places, yes, where corn is growing in fields that used to have hops, but it's not an en masse trend.... about 1 1/2 pgs back, I linked to some articles on why it is/isn't true, and what instead is causing it.
Maybe not corn but Hop acerage world wide
has decreased significantly over the last decade
budbo said:
You are correct but it has nothing to do with corn. With the advent of hop storage technologies the price of the hops fell. Yakima growers got together and pulled acreage out to RAISE HOP PRICES. This whole corn ethanol thing is fad, do some reading and you'll find that it takes more energy to make ethanol from modern corn growing than it produces.
explosivebeer
Well-Known Member
chione said:
From what I've heard, it's actually switchgrass or some other ethanol-producing plant that is suddenly much more lucrative than hops for the Yakima growers. This is from a source who knows a ton about the brewing industry and I have no reason to question his knowledge. At the same time though, I have no first-hand proof. It is quite possible that the growers saw this as a win-win, getting government subsidies for the ethanol production and simultaneously making their hop crops more valuable by diminishing the supply.
Another case of the man trying to keep a brother down.explosivebeer said:
Chello
Well-Known Member
Just for what it's worth i don't like that this thread was moved out of the ingredients forum...
seem to get a lot less traffic/new posts.
just my leftover change...
seem to get a lot less traffic/new posts.
just my leftover change...
I don't think much hops acreage has been replaced with corn. The corn price increase has been a very recent thing and the hops acreage decline has been going on much longer than that. In addition unless you are already a big corn farmer the cost of the equipment to grow and harvest the corn is going to make it unprofitable. I'm guessing more of that acreage was lost to development and perhaps to other crops.chione said:
As for ethanol from corn. Most numbers I have seen show a modest net gain from ethanol. I don't think the long term economics makes sense for corn ethanol but it is not a losing proposition either. Some people have claimed net energy losses for corn ethanol, but there is just as many that claim huge gains for corn ethanol. I don't believe either.
Craig
EvilTOJ
Well-Known Member
I listened to a podcast on the brewing network about the shortage. They had a speaker from hopunion.com say exactly why there's so few acreage of hops these days. Back in 1992 the price of hops bottomed out. There was so much that they didn't know what to do with them, so they converted a majority of it into hop extract. Well, the big breweries love it, and it's very stable, unlike leaf hops. The hop extracts kept the price of hops artifically low, so many farms turned to other crops over the last 15 years. Then.... the hop extract ran out. And the big brewers freaked and bought tons o hops. Combined with a poor harvest and the infamous silo fire, it's now come to how it is today.
Also, hop farms aren't converting to corn. Equipment concerns notwithstanding, (most farms don't have several million lying around to just go buy new gear) corn doesn't grow as well where hops thrive, and it has a longer growing season. Barley farmers are the ones you have to look out for when it comes to turning to other crops.
Also, hop farms aren't converting to corn. Equipment concerns notwithstanding, (most farms don't have several million lying around to just go buy new gear) corn doesn't grow as well where hops thrive, and it has a longer growing season. Barley farmers are the ones you have to look out for when it comes to turning to other crops.
BarleyWater
Well-Known Member
I still don't think that this is as bad as everyone is making it out to be. If there weren't this huge run on hops because of the shortage, then the shortage wouldn't be nearly as bad. The C hops that we were not supposed to able to get, guess what, AHS has almost all of them, even the Cascades they said they wouldn't have until January of 2010, not cheap, but they have them.
It's a conpiracy I tell you, regardless of the bad growing season in Europe, and the extract thing, there must be a government coverup somewhere. It's like OPEC driving up oil prices, only to have record profits fall into the hands of oil companies. Let's see your books Yakima hop farmers, I'm smelling record profits next quarter. It's fun to play devils advocate.
But seriously, I think that even a large portion of the new crop is going to be turned into extract, and the growers up north switching to the super alpha varieties which the big guys pay more for, (more AA = more $$) means that homegrown aroma hops are the wave of the future. It's not a problem that is ever going to go away. Next season will hopefully bring us more, and higher quality german and czech hops, but until then, get to know your LHBS and the other online retailers. There is almost no hop that you can't find, it's just a matter of searching, and the September harvest will hopefully sort much of this mess out.
It's a conpiracy I tell you, regardless of the bad growing season in Europe, and the extract thing, there must be a government coverup somewhere. It's like OPEC driving up oil prices, only to have record profits fall into the hands of oil companies. Let's see your books Yakima hop farmers, I'm smelling record profits next quarter. It's fun to play devils advocate.
But seriously, I think that even a large portion of the new crop is going to be turned into extract, and the growers up north switching to the super alpha varieties which the big guys pay more for, (more AA = more $$) means that homegrown aroma hops are the wave of the future. It's not a problem that is ever going to go away. Next season will hopefully bring us more, and higher quality german and czech hops, but until then, get to know your LHBS and the other online retailers. There is almost no hop that you can't find, it's just a matter of searching, and the September harvest will hopefully sort much of this mess out.
SteveM
Well-Known Member
ilikestuff said:
To a degree, I think you are right. There is too much of a capital investment to hops growing for every grower to simultaneously decide that they are going to rip out their investment and grow corn to capture those fat government subsidies. Plus, land that is suitable for hops cultivation may not be ideal for corn anyway. I would not be surprised to see prices back down by summer (after the prime home brewing months are over).
I think we should start one of those chain e-mails like the ones saying not to buy gas on a certain day. I think we should pick a week and not drink or buy any beer, brew anything, or buy any homebrewing related supplies.
Let's do it, next week! who is with me? Anyone? Anyone?
Let's do it, next week! who is with me? Anyone? Anyone?
zoebisch01
Well-Known Member
Well keep in mind that *everything* has gone up in the past year. I don't think the entire reason is the Hop shortage, although it does have the most impact. We're all getting scalped and it's not just from hops
srsly, those things never work anyway.
I'ts not corn it's grapevines. You can make a lot mor emoney in Yakima valley off vines than hops. For years growers have been complaining about not getting enough for hops.
There is a hop shortage and some distributers are hoarding to make more profit. An honest distrubuter I know told me prices will likey climb a bit further over the next 3-4 months then drop down to about what they are today and stay there for a bout 2-3 years, with shortages of certain varieties. One problem is lower than normal alpha content in a lot of varieties.
Oh, and he has hops... (Damn it, my account is all screwed up and I can't attach the price list so I'll have to cut and paste instead. Prices are in CAD $)
http://beerandwindfilter.com
Talk to Bob and tell him Denny sent you.
There is a hop shortage and some distributers are hoarding to make more profit. An honest distrubuter I know told me prices will likey climb a bit further over the next 3-4 months then drop down to about what they are today and stay there for a bout 2-3 years, with shortages of certain varieties. One problem is lower than normal alpha content in a lot of varieties.
Oh, and he has hops... (Damn it, my account is all screwed up and I can't attach the price list so I'll have to cut and paste instead. Prices are in CAD $)
http://beerandwindfilter.com
Talk to Bob and tell him Denny sent you.
Code:
A B C D
1 Beer & Wine Filter BEER ITEMS PRICE LIST Effective: February 15, 2008
2
3 Part Number Product Description Pack Size Price
4 DRY BREWERS YEAST and YEAST NUTRIENT
5 Nottingham Ale Danstar Nottingham Dry British Ale Yeast, 500gm block 500 gm $39.95 ea.
6 Mauribrew Ale Mauribrew Dry Ale Yeast #514, 500gm block 500 gm $28.95 ea.
7 Mauribrew Lager Mauribrew Dry Lager Yeast #497, 500gm block 500 gm $28.95 ea.
8 Safale S-04 Safale S-04 "London Ale" style Beer Yeast, 500gm block 500 gm $32.10 ea.
9 Safale US-05 Safale US-05 "California Common" style Beer Yeast, 500gm 500 gm $33.60 ea.
10 Saflager W-34/70 Safale S-04 "London Ale" style Beer Yeast, 500gm block 500 gm $53.70 ea.
11 SIHA Proferm Plus SIHA Proferm Plus Yeast Nutrient, 1kg foil block 1 kg block $27.50 ea.
12
13 T90 HOP PELLETS - all are vacuum-packed at the farm under Nitrogen in a 5 LB foil bag
14 Hop - Bullion5 Bullion Hop Pellets, a/a 7.5% 5 lb bag $87.50/bag
15 Hop - Cascade5 Cascade Hop Pellets, a/a 4.1% & 4.9% 5 lb bag $94.40/bag
16 Hop - Centennial5 Centennial Hop Pellets, a/a 8.0% 5 lb bag $98.50/bag
17 Hop - Cluster5 Cluster Hop Pellets, a/a 6.3% 5 lb bag $79.40/bag
18 Hop - Fuggle5 Fuggle UK Hop Pellets, a/a 4.0% ---OUT OF STOCK--- 5 lb bag $78.50/bag
19 Hop - Galena5 Galena Hop Pellets, a/a 10.1% & 11.5% 5 lb bag $101.00/bag
20 Hop - Golding5 US Golding Hop Pellets, a/a 4.7% 5 lb bag $92.50/bag
21 Hop - Hallertau5 Hallertau US Hop Pellets, a/a 3.6% & 4.2% 5 lb bag $90.50/bag
22 Hop - N.Brewer5 Northern Brewer US Hop Pellets, a/a 7.7% 5 lb bag $94.40/bag
23 Hop - Nugget5 Nugget Hop Pellets, a/a 12.0% ---OUT OF STOCK--- 5 lb bag $101.00/bag
24 Hop - Perle5 Perle Hop Pellets, a/a 6.6% ---OUT OF STOCK--- 5 lb bag $89.50/bag
25 Hop - Saaz5 Czech Saaz Hop Pellets, a/a 3.5% 5 lb bag $80.50/bag
26 Hop - Tettnanger5 Tettnanger US Hop Pellets, a/a 3.0% 5 lb bag $42.95/bag
27 Hop - Willamette5 Willamette Hop Pellets, a/a 4.5% & 5.3% 5 lb bag $92.50/bag
28
29 LEAF HOPS - all are vacuum-packed at the farm under Nitrogen in a 1 LB foil bag
30 LeafHop - Casc1 Cascade Leaf Hop, a/a 5.6% 1 lb bag $27.15/bag
31 LeafHop - Fuggle1 Fuggle UK Leaf Hop, a/a 4.0% 1 lb bag $16.20/bag
32 LeafHop - Willam1 Willamette Leaf Hop, a/a 6.6% 1 lb bag $27.15/bag
33 [Other Leaf and Pellet Hops available upon request... please ask]
34
35 BEER STABILIZERS - SILICA XEROGEL, PVPP and IRISH MOSS
36 Becosorb 1000 Becosorb 1000 silica xerogel beer stabilizer 15 kg bag $75.75 ea.
37 Becosorb 2500 Becosorb 2500 silica xerogel beer stabilizer 20 kg bag $100.00 ea.
38 Divergan F BASF Divergan F polyvinylpyrrolidone (pvpp) beer stabilizer 30 kg drum $945.00 ea.
39 Whirlfloc T - 1kg Kerry Whirlfloc Tablets (Irish Moss Tablets) 1 kg jar $25.95 ea.
40 Whirlfloc T - 3kg Kerry Whirlfloc Tablets (Irish Moss Tablets) 3 kg jar $75.00 ea.
41
42 FINING AGENTS
43 SIHA Potass Metabi SIHA Potassium Metabisulfite, ultra pure stabilizing grade 1 kg block $4.90 ea.
44 SIAH Potass Sorbate SIHA Potassium Sorbate, ultra pure stabilizing grade 1 kg block $14.90 ea.
45
46 DIATOMACEOUS EARTH
47 DE - FP4 Celatom DE, Grade FP-4 (offset to Dicalite SpeedFlow) 50 lb bag $22.00 ea.
48 cardboard box (to ship single bags by courier)… please ADD -------> $5.00 ea.
49
50 SIX-PACK RINGS & KEGS
51 Rings Perf-pak extra narrow size #2 six pack rings; 3,000/roll 3,000/roll $195.00 ea.
52 Kegs-20L Stainless 20L Pepsi kegs, reconditioned and guaranteed each $55.50 ea.
B'sPointPlacePorter
Active Member
McCall St. Brewer said:
I am still not convinced that they don't bottle slightly colored water!
I don't know if people have noticed, but it seems like most varities are now available, at least in pellet form and at high prices, from the big retailers. Still very little for whole hops, but if you're desperate that you need a particular type of hop, might not be a bad time to grab some.
Hopefully it follows the typical cycle:the_bird said:
~ Supplies dry up.
~ Prices increase.
~ Paying public becomes accustomed to higher prices (grateful to find what they can).
~ Obvious profit opportunities exist for anyone who can provide supply. In contra seasonal parts of the world (Australia, South America...) new suppliers step in to fill the void.
~ These new suppliers begin to replenish inventories. Prices remain high due to excessive cost to process and ship from the "far reaches".
~ As inventories begin to swell, normal suppliers come back "on line".
~ Prices begin to decline as supply begins to meet (and slowly exceed) demand.
~ A temporary overlap in suppliers creates a glut and the pricing pendulum swings.
~ Prices deteriorate to "give away" levels, as the market attempts to balance inventories.
*** and then ***
We all go back to brewing IIPA's with 2 pounds of hops per 10-gallon batch..
BierMuncher said:~ A temporary overlap in suppliers creates a glut and the pricing pendulum swings.
~ Prices deteriorate to "give away" levels, as the market attempts to balance inventories.
*** and then ***
We all go back to brewing IIPA's with 2 pounds of hops per 10-gallon batch..
The distributer I deal with says he figures price rise for the next year then a drop to around current prices. This also has a lot to do with hop farmers considering going corn for ethanol as it pays better.
McCall St. Brewer
Well-Known Member
I was just looking at the Northern Brewer site and was aghast at their hops prices. I don't think I'll be buying any hops from them for awhile.
SuperiorBrew
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Denny's Evil Concoctions said:
I just talked to Bob, he said the FDA is giving him problems shipping to the US they get $60 just for the inspection fee and then higher duties and taxes due to the FDA classifying it as a food product. He is making some calls but it doesn't sound too promising for US shipping.
SuperiorBrew said:
Yeah, he mentioned that to me. Kinda screwy when the hops come from the US in the first place. Canada doesn't care when they ship em this way.
McCall St. Brewer said:
Where you going to buy them from, then?
I'm more and more thankful that I've got enough stockpiled to get me through the year.
ohiobrewtus
Well-Known Member
the_bird said:
SHAZAM! How big is your current supply? I have quite a bit left, but I just don't see it lasting me the rest of the year.
Well, I bought a pound each of Cascade and Fuggles from hopsdirect right before they shut down, so read that as two pounds each. Bought a (true) pound of Tettnag from NB as the shortage was heating up, as well. So, that gives me a baseline for American, British, and German beers. Those are all whole hops, I still have a decent amount of pellets around (bought a pound of Amarillo pellets before the shortage, have some bulk Centenial, and assorted things here and there). All frozen, all the bulk hops are vacuum-sealed (as least as well as that freakin' Reynolds thing will work).
So, I'm a LONG ways from panic mode. Made an investment in some excess inventory when the market was getting heated, now I'm glad that I did.
So, I'm a LONG ways from panic mode. Made an investment in some excess inventory when the market was getting heated, now I'm glad that I did.
I feel good that I don't brew as much as some here. I can still measure my hops in ounces...
You know, for some, the solution might be jsut start growing them. I'm doing it this year, but not because of the shortage. Just because I want to. But, it migh tmake sense for some to do this to help them get some hops they can't get otherwise.
You know, for some, the solution might be jsut start growing them. I'm doing it this year, but not because of the shortage. Just because I want to. But, it migh tmake sense for some to do this to help them get some hops they can't get otherwise.
Problem for me is that I don't know how long I'll be living here. Kinda hard to bring your hop plants with you.
5lb bullion and 5lbs tett finally arrived today. yay!
5lb bullion and 5lbs tett finally arrived today. yay!
Denny's Evil Concoctions said:
A friend of mine is growing some in large planters. If they are treated right, they should work ok. Then you can dig up the roots and replant wherever you move to.
This isn't the best way to go about it, but might work in a pinch. For me, the growning isn't because I can't get hops, or dont' want to pay more for them, it's because I want to grow my own hops. Maybe some day I'll malt my own barley too...
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