To expand on what @Bobby_M and @pricelessbrewing said, I will make some reasonable(?) assumptions about the data that priceless noted was missing, and run a full mash simulation to separate out lautering and conversion losses.
Assumptions: Grain absorption is 0.12 gal/lb of grain, boil off is 1 gal, and your volume and SG measurements are reasonably accurate.
You used 8.47 gal of total water, and collected 6.5 gal of wort (pre-boil). The grain would have absorbed 8.5 * 0.12 = 1.02 gal. That leaves 8.47 - (6.5 + 1.02) = 0.95 gal of volume unaccounted for, and as Bobby said, that is possibly due to undrained wort in the MLT. Your lauter efficiency calculates out to 78.5% (using your strike and sparge volumes.) If you reduced that 0.95 gal loss to 0.125 gal (1 pint), your lauter efficiency would increase to 88.6%. That much undrained wort is a huge hit to efficiency.
Lauter efficiency is maximized by having (nearly) equal volumes for all run offs (initial & sparge.) If you had used 5.22 gal of strike water, and 3.25 gal of sparge water, your lauter efficiency would have gone from 78.5% to 88.4%, a gain of almost 4 percentage points.
To get a 1.030 OG assuming 5.5 gal post-boil, I had to adjust the conversion efficiency in the simulator to 69.5%. This is awful. Homebrewers routinely achieve 95% or better conversion efficiency with good process control. As mentioned previously, coarse crush and pH way out of range will negatively affect conversion efficiency, as will temperatures being off due to uncalibrated thermometers. The best way to monitor conversion is to look at the SG of the wort in the mash (a refractometer is very useful for this.) It turns out that maximum mash SG (100% conversion) is pretty much a constant for a particular water to grain ratio in the mash. You can compare your mash SG and mash thickness to the
table here to see how close you are to 100% conversion.
The thinner mash that helps with lautering efficiency will also increase the conversion rate, which can help get more conversion in your allotted mash time (ref:
http://braukaiser.com/wiki/index.php?title=Understanding_Efficiency#Mash_thickness.)
If you increased your mash efficiency from 69.5% to 95%, reduced your undrained MLT volume from 0.95 gal to 0.125 gal, and adjusted strike vs. sparge volume for equal run off volumes, your mash efficiency (= conversion efficiency * lauter efficiency) could go from 54.5% to 84.3%!
Brew on
ps: Here's my standard spiel on collecting data for doing a proper efficiency analysis which allows for some consistency verification:
To fully diagnose efficiency issues, the following measurements are needed:
- Grain bill weight
- Strike water volume (everything prior to initial run off)
- SG of wort at end of mash, or first runnings SG
- Sparge process (fly, batch, none)
- Sparge water volume (for each batch sparge if more than one)
- Pre-boil volume
- Pre-boil SG
- Weight & type of any sugar added to the boil
- Post-boil volume
- Post-boil SG (OG)
- Volume into fermenter
Accurate measurements are critical, since the efficiency calculations cannot be better than the measurement accuracy. All volumes should be corrected for thermal expansion to 68˚F, or the volume measurement temperature reported, so that corrections can be made. Hydrometer measurements should be taken with the wort temp within 20˚F of the hydrometer's calibration temperature, and then corrected for the temperature at which the measurement was made.
Mash Efficiency = Conversion Efficiency * Lauter Efficiency
Brewhouse Efficiency = Mash Efficiency * Transfer Efficiency
Transfer Efficiency = Fermenter Volume / Post-boil Volume
With the measurements listed above, all of the factors in the above equations can be calculated. Conversion efficiency should be greater than 95%. Lauter efficiency is a function of sparge process and grain weight to pre-boil volume ratio, and maximum achievable can be predicted (but not as accurately for fly sparge.) Once you know which efficiency factor is lower than what should be achievable, then you know what part of your process needs to be addressed.