Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370

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At least one of them was still alive and made a call as if nothing were wrong after one of the tracking systems had already been shut off. It's not a lot to go on but it does rule out some possible scenarios doesn't it? I think it means at least one pilot participated in at least the very beginning of whatever happened.

I think you're mistaken. From http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/15/world...es-flight-370-chronology/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

1:07 AM - last ACARS communcation
1:19 AM - "All right, good night" communication from cockpit
1:21 AM - transponder shut off
1:37 AM - next scheduled ACARS update. This did not occur so someone switched that system off between 1:07 and 1:37. The exact time is not known.
 
I think you're mistaken. From http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/15/world...es-flight-370-chronology/index.html?hpt=hp_t1



1:07 AM - last ACARS communcation

1:19 AM - "All right, good night" communication from cockpit

1:21 AM - transponder shut off

1:37 AM - next scheduled ACARS update. This did not occur so someone switched that system off between 1:07 and 1:37. The exact time is not known.


I'd seen it reported in a couple places this morning that it was shut off before the "alright, good night." I guess they were jumping to conclusions. Imagine that.
 
I don't know why they haven't reported more about the pilots wife and 3 kids who suddenly move out of the home they were staying in a day before the plane went missing.
 
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My guess is that it lost cabin pressure, drifted for a while with everyone asleep, and finally went into the water 500 miles south of India. If it crashed nose down, the debris field could be isolated to a small area, and mostly underwater.
 
My guess is that it lost cabin pressure, drifted for a while with everyone asleep, and finally went into the water 500 miles south of India. If it crashed nose down, the debris field could be isolated to a small area, and mostly underwater.

What about the lack of contact with the transponder?? No locater beacon just seems to fishy.
 
My guess is that it lost cabin pressure, drifted for a while with everyone asleep, and finally went into the water 500 miles south of India. If it crashed nose down, the debris field could be isolated to a small area, and mostly underwater.

Who turned off the transponder and ACARS system? Who changed the plane's heading and altitude?

All evidence points to someone knowledgeable about flying a 777 at the controls for at least several hours after the transponder was shut off.

In my mind, the two passengers with stolen passports were written off FAR too quickly. A plane disappears, there are two people on board with stolen passports, both are from Iran, both are young men, and people think this is a coincidence? I'll bet anyone $100 that, when this is all unraveled, those two men will be implicated.
 
The airplane is not lost. Its being hidden. Plain and simple. I believe a reason why will come out eventually. Spectulation on how it was lost is useless and only a distraction a magician uses in a magic trick

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I437P using Home Brew mobile app
 
As much as I would like to believe that those 239 people are still alive, as each day goes by with no contact from them, the huge amount of food they would have to have been fed, my heart says they are gone. If I were a time lord like The Doctor, I'd give up a regeneration to bring them all back alive because the pain of loss and confusion has to be unbearable for the surviving families. Heck, my wife flew the same plane from the same airport just 6 years ago. Fortunately she's still with me to help clean up my messes and drink the beer with me.

And then the question as to why? Why would such an apparently complex diversion fail? There's no proof it did.

I've said since day 1 that the windshield blew out due to a known electrical overheating issue that has existed since the 767. Might have sucked one of the pilots out and the remaining talented pilot tried to return home, and became lost. And it's in the ocean. -60F can make it really hard to stay awake, and I think we will end up finding out that there is a hero of a pilot that tried to return his passengers to safety, but became a lost ship at sea.

It's easy to always (post 911) to think the most evil must have happened. I'm going with mechanical failure of the windshield, plain and simple. (Disclaimer - I have friends that are commercial pilots and not one of them has discounted my gut feeling)

Electrical fire. In particular, the windshield, which failed and blew out.

Cheers.
 
If it wasn't for the course change and transponder disconnect, explosive decompression would be more plausible.

The whole thing is so weird.
 
My question is where would this plane have landed with out not one eyewitness to leak its position. It not like this is a small bush plane that can land on backwoods unpaved landing strip. This is a Boeing 777 a huge ass plane that would require a huge landing strip and a large infrastructure to maintain and refuel the plane if it was to takeoff and used in a terrorist plot.

If this is the case couldn't it narrow it down to a small number of possible places to land? Not to mention you can't just hide. 777 you have to have tremendously huge hanger to store the likes of which could really
Only be found in military or international airports.


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Explosive decompression is correct sir. The windshield blew out and Boeing doesn't want to admit that it has been documented over 400 times. Anyone remember the British Airlines pilot that was sucked out and only survived the landing with crew holding him onto the front of the plane at landing?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Airways_Flight_5390

I have always felt that what we will find is a sad, large loss of human life. It wasn't terrorism and sadly it wasn't hi-jacking. Time is proving that the people are no longer with us. Forget radar, the people are #1, key and apparently gone.

I still say that there was a mechanical failure, the windshield blew out due to a very common and not required fix, Malyasia Airlines didn't fix it, the front windshield overheated in an electrical fire and blew out and the extremely talented pilot remaining tried everything he could to return.

I believe the aircraft came to rest on the Indian Ocean and then sank with no debris. And I feel that humans in charge did the best they could and there was never any evil intent.



If it wasn't for the course change and transponder disconnect, explosive decompression would be more plausible.

The whole thing is so weird.
 
My two cents. The world is a big and scary place that a lot of us Americans take for granted that our government can protect us when it is us that protect each other in times of need. This is a major tragedy that will most likely unfold but not for the better. A plane of that size would be hard to land and hide without being noticed but fear of death can keep mouths shut quite easily. I hope it did not come to terrorism with the plane and it was just catastrophic electrical/mechanical failure but........

Good luck to the governments trying to find the plane and godspeed to the passengers to be returned to their families.
 
Who turned off the transponder and ACARS system? Who changed the plane's heading and altitude?

All evidence points to someone knowledgeable about flying a 777 at the controls for at least several hours after the transponder was shut off.

In my mind, the two passengers with stolen passports were written off FAR too quickly. A plane disappears, there are two people on board with stolen passports, both are from Iran, both are young men, and people think this is a coincidence? I'll bet anyone $100 that, when this is all unraveled, those two men will be implicated.

No evidence points to someone knowledgeable at the console (other than the pilots of the flight) after the transponder was shut off.

I gladly take you up on the bet. You are on. $100 bucks to you if the two men are shown to have been involved in causing this. $100 bucks to me they are not. If nothing gets resolved in a year the bet's off.

:mug: (Shaking on it)
 
A major hole is how/why the flight data recorder and transponder were shut off at different times.

Where did you hear that the flight data recorder was shut off? It's located in the tail of the airplane and can only be turned off by pulling the circuit breaker. And it doesn't broadcast, so how would anyone on the ground even know it had been turned off? It just records data until the plane crashes.

The transponder could easily have been shut off by a confused flight crew suffering from hypoxia.

Though, 45,000 may kill everyone who doesn't have a oxygen mask on.

The atmosphere (or lack thereof) at 45,000 ft will most definitely kill everyone within seconds/minutes without supplemental oxygen.

Can a pilot prevent oxygen masks from deploying?

No, they deploy automatically upon sensing the pressure dropping too low. However, they do not have an indefinitely supply of oxygen. Each mask has its own oxygen supply. The tank attached to each mask does not actually contain oxygen, but rather a set of chemicals that when mixed together catalyze to produce oxygen. But once the chemical reaction is exhausted, no more oxygen is produced. It will last long enough to get the plane down to an altitude where the air is breathable (around 10,000 ft).

The pilots, on the other hand, have actual oxygen tanks that will supply oxygen for much longer.
 
My guess is that it lost cabin pressure, drifted for a while with everyone asleep, and finally went into the water 500 miles south of India. If it crashed nose down, the debris field could be isolated to a small area, and mostly underwater.

This seems to be the most plausible explanation, in my opinion. There's even precedent. This is exactly what happened to Helios flight 522 in 2005. The cabin slowly lost pressure and the pilots didn't notice. Hypoxia set in and they couldn't think clearly. The masks in back dropped down and the passengers put them on, thinking the pilots were fixing things. But the masks in the cockpit don't drop automatically - the pilots have to retrieve them and put them on deliberately. So they didn't notice they were hypoxic. They passed out, the passengers in back eventually ran out of oxygen and also passed out. The plane continued to its next waypoint where, in the absence of further instructions, it went into an automatic holding pattern until it ran out of fuel and crashed into a mountain.
 
If it wasn't for the course change and transponder disconnect, explosive decompression would be more plausible.

You're right, for explosive decompression. But gradual decompression is much more insidious and plausible. If you're losing cabin pressure and unaware it's happening, you just get tired and confused (hypoxic). You could mistakenly turn off the wrong radio (transponder) and mix up a course change (turning the plane the completely wrong direction) before eventually succumbing completely to hypoxia and passing out.

There's precedent. This has happened before. Helios flight 522. Also a Japan Airlines 747 (flight 123) lost pressure (tail bulkhead blew out due to botched repair from a tail strike years earlier) and lost hydraulics. The plane porpoised wildly, and when it was at the apex of its flight path, where the air was thin, the pilots were very disoriented and confused. Their ATC calls were nonsensical, and they made bizarre decisions until the plane dove back down to thicker air and they regained their senses. It eventually crashed into a mountain, killing 520 people, making it the worse single-aircraft disaster in history.
 
The mechanical failure doesn't really hold much water because the 777 has a lot of redundant systems including navigation and communication. For example, there are actually three independent auto-pilot systems. If one doesn't agree with the other two, it gets ignored. It's incredibly unlikely that they all failed at the same time and the plane was still able to fly for 7 hours. It doesn't seem any more likely that the pilots would shut off the two systems that allow the plane to be tracked and never utter a single word on any of the communication systems.

The shadow theory fits the data better IMO (not that it's worth much...) It explains why we haven't found a single piece of the plane anywhere, it explains why the transponder was shut off, it explains how the aircraft would be able to penetrate ground radar (assuming that it's plausible), and it explains why there was no radio communication.

I doubt it was the pilots. Neither one of them strike me as the type. Now two young Iranian men traveling with stolen passports? Yes, that's pretty darn suspicious.
 
No evidence points to someone knowledgeable at the console (other than the pilots of the flight) after the transponder was shut off.

I gladly take you up on the bet. You are on. $100 bucks to you if the two men are shown to have been involved in causing this. $100 bucks to me they are not. If nothing gets resolved in a year the bet's off.

:mug: (Shaking on it)

You're on. I take paypal. :D
 
Now two young Iranian men traveling with stolen passports? Yes, that's pretty darn suspicious.

Really?

2 young, untrained Iranian men overpowered the flight crew and 250 passengers, and skillfully piloted a 777 for several hours while flawlessly avoiding multiple ground-based radar systems, then successfully landed at some secret unknown airfield with a runway long enough to land a widebody jet airliner? And nobody noticed?

THAT seems like the most likely explanation to you?
 
My money is on a gradual, undetected loss of cabin pressure that incapacitated the crew via hypoxia, causing them to become confused, alter their course, accidentally turn off their transponder, and aim the plane out over the Indian ocean before eventually losing consciousness. The plane cruised on a heading-and-altitude hold autopilot setting until it ran out of fuel and crashed in the ocean. It wasn't seen on any radar because a) they turned off their transponder, and b) it was way out over the ocean where there are no radar stations to pick it up.
 
Really?

2 young, untrained Iranian men overpowered the flight crew and 250 passengers, and skillfully piloted a 777 for several hours while flawlessly avoiding multiple ground-based radar systems, then successfully landed at some secret unknown airfield with a runway long enough to land a widebody jet airliner? And nobody noticed?

THAT seems like the most likely explanation to you?

This is so full of conjecture it's silly. I'll just start at the top.

Who said they were untrained? One of them was 29 years old. How do you know what he's been doing the last 10 years? Did you look into his background?

Skillfully piloted? I wouldn't consider altitude changes between 4000 and 45000 feet "skillful". Taking off and landing a plane is absolutely the hardest part. Flying it around is not that difficult, especially if someone has had a little training. Hell, *I* could probably pilot a 777 from point A to point B if it was already in the air.

However, I agree that landing the plane seems a little implausible.

"Flawlessly" avoiding multiple ground based radar? It was picked up by Malaysian military radar after the plane turned west and crossed the peninsula. Can you detail the other radar systems that it "flawlessly" avoided? Or can you admit that you're just making **** up now?

And finally... who said the plane landed successfully? For all we know it crashed into the ocean or the jungle.

Edit: Here's another radar system they "flawlessly" avoided: http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/18/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
 
My money is on a gradual, undetected loss of cabin pressure that incapacitated the crew via hypoxia, causing them to become confused, alter their course, accidentally turn off their transponder, and aim the plane out over the Indian ocean before eventually losing consciousness. The plane cruised on a heading-and-altitude hold autopilot setting until it ran out of fuel and crashed in the ocean. It wasn't seen on any radar because a) they turned off their transponder, and b) it was way out over the ocean where there are no radar stations to pick it up.

The timeline simply doesn't support something gradual. At 1:19am the co-pilot said "all right, good night." The transponder was shut off at 1:21am - just TWO MINUTES later. The next ACARS report was supposed to get sent out at 1:37am and that system was shut off as well, sometime between 1:07am (its last successful report) and 1:37 am.

Nothing about that timeline says "gradual".

edit: from the link above, the plane disappeared from Thai military radar at 1:22 when the transponder was shut off. They picked it up again just six minutes later - heading in nearly the opposite direction. I think we can throw "gradual" out the window now.
 
Amazing. Even if he is not right in the sense that it locates the flight or even tells what happened, the idea that he has revealed that one 777 can fly in the shadow of another 777 is terrifying. This is one smart guy though and he should be acknowledged for his theory, right or wrong.

It's certainly an interesting theory. I don't know all that much about aviation and radar, but he certainly presents a coherent case that lines up with what little we know.
 
The timeline simply doesn't support something gradual. At 1:19am the co-pilot said "all right, good night." The transponder was shut off at 1:21am - just TWO MINUTES later. The next ACARS report was supposed to get sent out at 1:37am and that system was shut off as well, sometime between 1:07am (its last successful report) and 1:37 am.

Nothing about that timeline says "gradual".

I disagree.

The timeframe you just gave me is 30 minutes wide. And just because someone is suffering from hypoxia doesn't mean they can't send short, simple radio messages like "All right, good night." That's the insidious nature of hypoxia. It impedes your mental capacity to the extent that you don't even know it's happening, but meanwhile your reasoning and problem-solving skills are gradually degrading. You're still conscious and have control over your muscles, so you can still *do* stuff - you're just not certain what you're doing or why you're doing it. It's like being really, really tired, but not wanting to admit it.

edit: from the link above, the plane disappeared from Thai military radar at 1:22 when the transponder was shut off. They picked it up again just six minutes later - heading in nearly the opposite direction. I think we can throw "gradual" out the window now.

No, not at all! This is exactly what I'm talking about. If they were experiencing a gradual loss of cabin pressure and were slowly succumbing to hypoxia, the entire flight crew would have been finding it harder and harder to stay focused and follow procedures.

They could still make radio calls and adjust their instruments, but it would be like doing it drunk. They'd be confused, they'd make adjustments and decisions they thought seemed right at the time, but would be nonsensical to a clear-headed observer, like turning off the transponder instead of adjusting the radio to the frequency of the next ATC, which is exactly what they WOULD have been doing as they were being handed off from one zone to another. Hence the "All right, good night" message they sent to the controller handing them off.

Under normal circumstances, they'd have keyed in the frequency of the next ATC center and made another radio call, something like "BlahBlah ATC this is Malaysia 370 at 450 for Beijing, good morning." Instead, they apparently turned off their transponder and changed course. Maybe they turned the heading knob of the autopilot thinking they were changing their radio frequency. That's they thing about hypoxia. You're impaired, but you don't know it.
 
Who said they were untrained? One of them was 29 years old. How do you know what he's been doing the last 10 years? Did you look into his background?

Have I, personally, run a full background check on these guys? No, of course not, but obviously numerous other police agencies have by now and I don't recall hearing anything about either of them having any level of flight training.

However, I agree that landing the plane seems a little implausible.

"Flawlessly" avoiding multiple ground based radar? It was picked up by Malaysian military radar after the plane turned west and crossed the peninsula. Can you detail the other radar systems that it "flawlessly" avoided? Or can you admit that you're just making **** up now?

I'm a big believer in Occam's Razor. It's certainly possible that two Iranian nationals were secretly trained to fly a 777 and somehow, in this post-9-11 world, managed to penetrate the cockpit and seize control of the airplane, then knew which instrument to turn off to disappear off radar, and knew enough about navigation to weave between other radar stations for the next several hours until crashing, undetected, in the ocean. But that does not seem like the most likely explanation to me.

Let's look at what we know.

We know the plane never broadcast any kind of distress signals to ATC. The last communication was a perfectly normal one. No one declared Mayday or indicated any kind of distress at any time. So whatever happened, we know that either the pilots were in on it, or it happened too quickly for them to make a radio call, or the radios malfunctioned. Law enforcement agencies are scouring the histories of both pilots, and so far haven't come up with anything particularly damning, so I think it's unlikely that this was a deliberate action by one or more of the pilots. We also know that the mechanics and electronics on modern airliners are both extremely reliable, and backed up with multiple redundancies, particularly the radios. So that leaves something happening too quickly for them to declare an emergency and ask for help.

We know that the plane continued flying for several hours after losing contact with ATC. We know this because the engine manufacturer continued receiving electronic "pings" from the engines, indicating they were running normally.

We know that the plane did not appear on any other radar screens, except possibly one militar radar, even on "passive" radar (which would easily pick up something the size of a 777 even without an operating transponder). This tells us that the plane was either too low to be picked up by radar (which is impossibly low in the mountainous terrain of the region in question), or was out over the ocean where there are no radar stations to pick it up. The latter seems the most likely scenario. The "low altitude" theory is a red herring in my opinion. Passive radar has no problem picking up a little Cessna flying at 3,000 ft - why would it not be able to detect a massive 777 at the same altitude?

So we have pilots that didn't call for help, an airplane that continued flying for several hours, most likely over the ocean. To me, that says the pilots were medically incapacitated by hypoxia, and the plane flew out over the ocean until it ran out of fuel and crashed. It's happened before.
 
Law enforcement agencies are scouring the histories of both pilots, and so far haven't come up with anything particularly damning, so I think it's unlikely that this was a deliberate action by one or more of the pilots.

I agree with everything you've said, except for this.

Hours before flying, the senior pilot had attended the prison sentencing of a Malaysian political opposition leader who some have described as an extremist.

And, the day before the flight, the pilot's wife and three kids moved out of their house.

But of course, with a co-pilot and engineer in the cockpit, it does seem unlikely that pilot suicide could occur without him taking out the co-pilot and engineer quickly; which IMO is just stuff out of the movies...

Your theory seems the most plausible given all of the facts.
 
. At 1:19am the co-pilot said "all right, good night."

I think people are reading more into the last voice communication between ATC and the plane. I have had numerous conversations with Air Traffic Controllers that ended in a similar fashion. When in busy airspace conversation is generally strictly business, short and to the point. Sometimes to the point of acknowledging instructions with nothing more than microphone clicks. However, when flying in a not busy time or place, conversion is much more relaxed. I used to fly the same route quite a bit under control of KC Center, After getting instruction to contact Memphis approach control..... I would frequently sign off with have a "good night", "thanks for everything" "have a good evening" or something similar, just to be polite to a guy with a thankless, stressful job in a dark room somewhere.
 
But of course, with a co-pilot and engineer in the cockpit, it does seem unlikely that pilot suicide could occur without him taking out the co-pilot and engineer quickly; which IMO is just stuff out of the movies...

A 777ER has a 2 person flight crew. On many planes the Flight Engineer is now a computer.
 
The interesting thing is the lack of cellular information. I think that lends credibility to the mechanical fire and the attempt to turn west.
 
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