This is a really common concept that goes through my head.... "What's the definition of success?" And that's a huge part of what you are touching on and its a huge reason why I don't buy the "bubble".
I hear people all the time say, "you can't make any money with a nano". Ok... but what do you mean by 'make money'? What is your definition of success regarding 'making money'? (And I don't mean YOU limulus... Speaking in general terms). If people mean "you can't support a workforce of ten people with salaries that would allow them to buy huge homes and drive Ferraris". Then sure... you can't "make money" with a nano.
But if they mean, "you can't generate enough capital to grow the business into something more meaningful".... then I TOTALLY disagree.
Same with the "bubble". "Oh, the market can't support all these breweries... there are too many of them!" Again... What's your definition of a successful brewery?
If you are saying that the market can't support 3,500 Stones.... or Sierra Nevadas... or Lagunitas... Sure...
I agree. But who said you have to be that big to be successful or be sustainable?
If you google "how many pizza places in US", you'll get an answer of "about 60,000". That doesn't mean there are 60,000 Dominos, or Papa Johns, or Pizza Huts out there. There are tens of thousands of little mom & pop pizza places.... and probably a large chunk are successful enough to provide their owner with a comfortable living.... so why isn't anyone talking about the "pizza parlor bubble"?
Over 45,000 Chinese food restaurants in the US. When is the Chinese food restaurant bubble going to burst?
The definition of success is very different from person to person and from brewery owner to brewery owner. A large chunk have no desire to be Stone. They just want to make beer, something they are passionate about, and make enough money to put food on their table and make their mortgage payments.... and there is nothing wrong with that. But if you have a large amount of those people (which i think the craft beer industry does)..... than I don't think we are remotely close to any bubble bursting.
Everyone's definition is different.
I'm glad your brewery is successful and not built on credit. Pay as you go is a much safer business model.
Nano is a good way to prove your concept before trying to build into something bigger. Really being profitable and generating a significant positive cash flow, not sure about that.
What you've said about there being no craft brewery bubble might be specific to your area, it is possible that Massachusetts has a different market than other areas. Here in Portland there are breweries going under and a very competitive market with a 'soft' ceiling and enough competition (~55 breweries in the city and ~75 in the metro area) that there may be more. Exploit your market and serve it well if possible.
Here's to much more success for you and your partners. Many of us envy you.