Biofuel brews up higher German beer prices
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It might, although much of the barley growing land in the mid-west has been converted already due to mildew problems. Obviously, rising corn prices will hit BMC.
People who insist on Germany malts will get hit hard.
The gripping hand, the increasing number of homebrewers will have more of an impact.
People who insist on Germany malts will get hit hard.
The gripping hand, the increasing number of homebrewers will have more of an impact.
OP
OP
2nd Street Brewery
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david_42 said:
Are you a fan of Niven & Pournell? The gripping hand comes from a couple of thier Sci Fi novels.
Reverend JC
2500 gallons year to date
Malt prices are going up world wide according to my LHBS owner. This is due to three specific reasons:
1. There have been a few major maltsters that have gone out of business or closing their doors for one reason or another.
2. World wide drought, especially in Australia he said. Not only due they produce large amounts of barley but due to drier than normal conditions now have to import more and thus put a strain on supply.
3. More farm production switched to ethanol producing products as explained in the MSNBC story.
what does this mean to us? He said (in march) that he could sell a 55lb back of simpsons golden promise for something like52 bucks and now has to sell it for 62. I think those were the prices, if not they were close. Will we still be able to make excellent beer cheaper than we can buy it? for sure.
1. There have been a few major maltsters that have gone out of business or closing their doors for one reason or another.
2. World wide drought, especially in Australia he said. Not only due they produce large amounts of barley but due to drier than normal conditions now have to import more and thus put a strain on supply.
3. More farm production switched to ethanol producing products as explained in the MSNBC story.
what does this mean to us? He said (in march) that he could sell a 55lb back of simpsons golden promise for something like52 bucks and now has to sell it for 62. I think those were the prices, if not they were close. Will we still be able to make excellent beer cheaper than we can buy it? for sure.
zoebisch01
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The world feels so small anymore.
I think that we are going to also see increases due to increasing fossil fuel cost. In fact we are seeing it reflected in produce already. I have a feeling though that this may eventually be good for small scale local farmers as their transport costs are small compared to large suppliers who rely on network shipping through the country. Could be a great opportunity for Barley growers. When everyone else makes the switch they'll be in good demand...where is fifelee to input?
I think that we are going to also see increases due to increasing fossil fuel cost. In fact we are seeing it reflected in produce already. I have a feeling though that this may eventually be good for small scale local farmers as their transport costs are small compared to large suppliers who rely on network shipping through the country. Could be a great opportunity for Barley growers. When everyone else makes the switch they'll be in good demand...where is fifelee to input?
2nd Street Brewery said:
http://www.catb.org/jargon/html/O/on-the-gripping-hand.html
Todd
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You know what I really don't understand. I keep hearing all this concern that we won't have enough farm land to handle Bio fuels and such. I have to call BS on that. In our area there is a conciderable amount of farm land which lays dormant. The state is paying farmers to let it sit.
All we need to do is get the government to but out and let the farmers decide what they want to grow.
Wait a minute, they are paying $.26/pound and claiming the need for a $5 pint? Perhaps they could lower the profit margin a few hundred percet??
All we need to do is get the government to but out and let the farmers decide what they want to grow.
Wait a minute, they are paying $.26/pound and claiming the need for a $5 pint? Perhaps they could lower the profit margin a few hundred percet??
zoebisch01
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Todd said:
Well that is the problem in a nutshell. Some farmers don't want to hear this (and I do understand why) but the truth of it is, we need to let the market regulate supply and demand. Seriously. A smart farmer will see the opportunity and make the change necessary, not be adamant about growing a particular crop. The land isn't an issue here. In Germany they have much less room.
What is really interesting is that Bill Mollison (a founder of the Permaculture movement) has designed farms in Au that make some of ours look small. He claims that we could reduce our active farmland by a huge percentage and be more productive....that is if we could just get over ourselves and the way we do things.
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As brewers, I'm surprised nobody caught on to what an outright FRAUD this is...
Now, knowing it takes about 1.5 pounds of grain to make a gallon of beer, and figuring that the cost is now up to about 40 cents a pound, from 28 cents per pound 2 years ago, for the major brewers. That means an increase of 18 cents per gallon.
18 cents per gallon increase, right? Well let's see... 1 gal = 128 ounces. So that works out to an increase of 4.78 cents per 34 ounce glass.
What did the brewers do? They tacked on a extra 40 cent (0.3 euros) increase to cover an expense that costs them less than a nickel. And they're blaming bio-fuels. Nice.
Hey, whatever excuse is convenient, I suppose.
As to the original question, could this affect homebrewers... Well, two things come to mind. First, 12 cents a pound is about $6 for a 55 pound sack. So yeah, I guess it has to affect homebrewers. But on the bright side, the price of cheap barley will now be closer to that of Maris Otter. As a result, we might see an increased use of higher quality base malts since the prices will be more comparable. This could lead to an INCREASE in the farming of higher quality barley, thereby driving down the cost a little.
Now, knowing it takes about 1.5 pounds of grain to make a gallon of beer, and figuring that the cost is now up to about 40 cents a pound, from 28 cents per pound 2 years ago, for the major brewers. That means an increase of 18 cents per gallon.
18 cents per gallon increase, right? Well let's see... 1 gal = 128 ounces. So that works out to an increase of 4.78 cents per 34 ounce glass.
What did the brewers do? They tacked on a extra 40 cent (0.3 euros) increase to cover an expense that costs them less than a nickel. And they're blaming bio-fuels. Nice.
Hey, whatever excuse is convenient, I suppose.
As to the original question, could this affect homebrewers... Well, two things come to mind. First, 12 cents a pound is about $6 for a 55 pound sack. So yeah, I guess it has to affect homebrewers. But on the bright side, the price of cheap barley will now be closer to that of Maris Otter. As a result, we might see an increased use of higher quality base malts since the prices will be more comparable. This could lead to an INCREASE in the farming of higher quality barley, thereby driving down the cost a little.
Dr Malt
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The prices of barley malt and hops will be rising in the near future for homebrewers and commercial brewer alike. I can't say it can all be blamed on biofuels, but over the past several years the price a grower could get for his (or her) malting barley or hops has been low. So low that growers have switched to other, more profitable crops, not all of which are related to biofuels. Thus, acreage has been lost for growing hops and malting barley and in the case of hops, that acreage will not return soon even with an upturn in prices. Hops are a unique crop requiring special equipment for growing and harvesting. When growers made the decisiion to stop growing hops, many sold or got rid of the aging equipment. Hop acreage in the Northwest has steadily dropped over the past 10 years and the number of growers has also declined. The supply of hops now is below demand.
In the case of malting barley, most growers do not grow malting barley as their primary crop. It is often grown on acreage with wheat and other crops. The reasons for this are the margins are slim and the barley might not make malting quality standards (good germination, low protein). Thus, besides the lower margins, their is the risk of having their barley rejected and having to sell into the feed market ( less margin). As more profitable crops come along for the northern US growing areas, growers have switched their acres. Again, over the past 10 years, malting barley acreage has been declining. Thus, there is a developing supply shortage in the world market resulting in higher prices. Add to this the reasons Reverend JC gave above and you have a malt price increase coming for this year's crop.
So, expect both malt and hop prices to increase this year and next.
Dr Malt
In the case of malting barley, most growers do not grow malting barley as their primary crop. It is often grown on acreage with wheat and other crops. The reasons for this are the margins are slim and the barley might not make malting quality standards (good germination, low protein). Thus, besides the lower margins, their is the risk of having their barley rejected and having to sell into the feed market ( less margin). As more profitable crops come along for the northern US growing areas, growers have switched their acres. Again, over the past 10 years, malting barley acreage has been declining. Thus, there is a developing supply shortage in the world market resulting in higher prices. Add to this the reasons Reverend JC gave above and you have a malt price increase coming for this year's crop.
So, expect both malt and hop prices to increase this year and next.
Dr Malt
Damn Squirrels said:
Futher down:
Besides they are charging what the market will bear. If it's too much then prices will fall if there is fluidity.
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Come on man. The math, right there, says it's a 5 cents per bottle increase. Then they cite "other factors" which are actually responsible for the remaining 88% of the increase. The biofuel thing is being used as a scape goat for a massive dollar grab, or else it's completely irresponsible journalism. Or both.
Why is that reference to the cost even in the article if it only accounts for 11.some percent of the increase? It's the wool being pulled over peoples' eyes. They point to something annoying that accounts for 11 percent of the increase and then run off with the other 89% percent as people get their feathers ruffled over the straw man.
Now, I'm all for capitalism. If they looked me in the eye and said, "We need to raise prices because we need to pay for our workers' pensions" I could live with that. But blaming it on bio-fuel? Trying to turn people off to new technologies and using it as a scapegoat to slide a huge (and undoubtedly long-time-coming) price increase down consumers' throats? That's just plain irresponsible... no matter how you feel about the increase itself.
Why is that reference to the cost even in the article if it only accounts for 11.some percent of the increase? It's the wool being pulled over peoples' eyes. They point to something annoying that accounts for 11 percent of the increase and then run off with the other 89% percent as people get their feathers ruffled over the straw man.
Now, I'm all for capitalism. If they looked me in the eye and said, "We need to raise prices because we need to pay for our workers' pensions" I could live with that. But blaming it on bio-fuel? Trying to turn people off to new technologies and using it as a scapegoat to slide a huge (and undoubtedly long-time-coming) price increase down consumers' throats? That's just plain irresponsible... no matter how you feel about the increase itself.
Onescalerguy
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A very intersting and enlightening thread indeed with implications for all of us homebrewers.We must compensate with better efficiencies .A timely thread also since i got a large grain order today from AHS(200#)and was wondering if i over did it.I feel way better about stocking up now(250# of grain stockpiled along with 6# of cascade hops).
Cheers
.A timely thread also since i got a large grain order today from AHS(200#)and was wondering if i over did it.I feel way better about stocking up now(250# of grain stockpiled along with 6# of cascade hops).Cheers
I almost posted this topic earlier, but I was sure someone else beat me to it...and here it is...
Well, it seems a shame that two seemingly unrelated items, beer and oil, should butt heads like this.
However, ethanol is certainly a viable fuel source, and as long as we can provide food (let's not go overboard on that topic, please), I suppose it's ok to utilize some farm fields for its production. After all, the USPS postage increases in the past few years have been more substantial than the estimated beer cost increase.
Well, it seems a shame that two seemingly unrelated items, beer and oil, should butt heads like this.
However, ethanol is certainly a viable fuel source, and as long as we can provide food (let's not go overboard on that topic, please), I suppose it's ok to utilize some farm fields for its production. After all, the USPS postage increases in the past few years have been more substantial than the estimated beer cost increase.
homebrewer_99
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I don't see how anyone can justify rising prices because of corn.
Only products related to corn should rise.
Only products related to corn should rise.
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homebrewer_99 said:
So let's say you eat a lot of cornbread. All of a sudden the cost of corn bread doubles because they are buying the corn to make biofuel. So do you starve to death? No. You buy bread made out of wheat. So then the price of wheat goes up...
If I remember my economics classes right, there is a name for those goods. Interchangeable? Something like that...
Ryanh1801
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Just one more reason I hate biofuels
Here's the relationship:homebrewer_99 said:
Ethanol supplements oil
Corn makes ethanol
Ethanol has become very profitable, so corn has become very profitable
Farm fields make corn, barley, wheat, etc, etc
There are a finite amount of farm fields
More fields will be dedicated to corn production
Therefore, less fields will be dedicated to barley
Barley's supply will begin to decay, making demand for it higher
Barley's price goes up
Barley makes beer
Beer's price goes up accordingly
Therefore:
Economics sucks.
I took a small gamble about a year ago by investing a few bucks in a bunch of bio-fuels companies. Hopefully my gamble pays off and offsets the rising cost of beer (and/or oil, but mostly beer). So, I love and hate bio-fuels at the same time.Ryanh1801 said:
Ryanh1801
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Probably a smart investment as much as I hate to say it. Up here it cracks me up they use 10% ethanol in the gas, because they say ethanol is cleaner burning. But yet my gas millage went from 330 miles on a tank to around 290. Seems to me burning more fuel would put more toxins in the air.
And then they take our BBQ!
http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0531/p01s04-wosc.html
Ignoring ALL other factors, 10 bushels of corn makes 25 gallons of fuel. It would also feed one person for 400 days. [I didn't believe this either until I ran the numbers].
http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0531/p01s04-wosc.html
Ignoring ALL other factors, 10 bushels of corn makes 25 gallons of fuel. It would also feed one person for 400 days. [I didn't believe this either until I ran the numbers].
homebrewer_99
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I know, I know...it was more at a "vent". We have an ethanol plant 6 miles down the road and another 20 miles away.Yuri_Rage said:
Buford
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Ethanol isn't really that great of a fuel. It takes a lot of land to produce usable amounts of it, and it takes more of it to serve the same purpose as petroleum. Ethanol has a lower energy density than petroleum so it takes more to get the same amount of energy out of it. Hence, lower milage. It just doesn't look like an efficient use of farmland.
If it wasn't subsidized and the real cost was reflected, no one would use it because the land used to grow fuel corn could be used for more profitable crops and that more is needed than oil for the same result.
If it wasn't subsidized and the real cost was reflected, no one would use it because the land used to grow fuel corn could be used for more profitable crops and that more is needed than oil for the same result.
feedthebear
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I think here in the US, they are trying to turn to switch grass and soy from corn and barely for mass biofuel production. Of course, if they were smart, they'd go with sugar cane because its the most efficient. But who ever said the Suits in DC were smart?
On the plus side, we might be able to sell our spent yeast to the biofuel production centers like the larger breweries are starting to do.
On the plus side, we might be able to sell our spent yeast to the biofuel production centers like the larger breweries are starting to do.
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feedthebear said:
Last I checked the breadbasket of America does not have the climate for growing sugar cane. However, if the suits in DC were smart, I guess maybe they would be able to figure out how to heat up the planet to improve the conditions for growing sugar cane in Nebraska.
feedthebear
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Mostly Puerto Rico & Hawaii. But anywhere along the Caribbean between Florida and Texas has the right climate.
zoebisch01
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david_42 said:
Oh, yes...it is a terribly inefficient process. Well ethanol from corn that is. I have no problems with farmers recycling stuff to make biodiesel, that I think is smart...but switching fields into production for something with minimal returns is NOT SMART. Especially since corn is not a good crop to begin with.
EdWort
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I guess I'm glad I stocked up on that bulk purchase a while back. Hmm. 40% ROI. Not bad
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