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GilaMinumBeer said:
I saw nothing in that article to support or deny this claim.

I do see a lot of speculative accusation, just like every other article on the issue.
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"His projection for the 2017 harvest was to bring in around 44,000 pounds (22 US tons). While that amount of hops is a tiny fraction of the global yearly harvest, it represented about 10 percent of the hops that SAB Hop Farms’ planned to export to foreign markets in 2017."

They harvested the 2017 crop earlier this year and would certainly know where they stood as far as yield.
 
rodwha said:
"His projection for the 2017 harvest was to bring in around 44,000 pounds (22 US tons). While that amount of hops is a tiny fraction of the global yearly harvest, it represented about 10 percent of the hops that SAB Hop Farms’ planned to export to foreign markets in 2017."

They harvested the 2017 crop earlier this year and would certainly know where they stood as far as yield.
Click to expand...

Crums "projection" to import 44,000 pounds says nothing to what SAB Farms projected yields and actual yields were.

Yes. They do know where they stand as far as yields. Which is part of what they claim is why they are not letting any go.

Crum is NOT SAB Farms. He is a broker/importer.

The only part of that article that supports any part of your claim is a obvious, anecdotal statement about competitive advantage cited as coming from the director of hops procurement for ABI.

Yes. IIRC, March is the harvest period. Meaning they have had a measly 2 or 3 months to harvest, process, and allocate the harvest. It is doubtful that much of the CY2017 has shipped yet. Which is why I suspect the NB is still selling CY2016 hops.

However this article, and others, allude that demand within ABI/SAB breweries is lower than anticipated. I doubt ABI is going to let thousand of pounds of hops sit and rot in a freezer just to keep them off the market. If anyone can, they certainly can, I just doubt they will. If they do, then I will jump on the blame train.

According to http://allaboutbeer.com/south-african-hops/ local supply has ALWAYS been an issue (meaning even before the ABI merger). Maybe, at least now, they'll be able to provide for those they were intended for in the first place.

The simple fact is that ABI has no contractual obligation, or responsibility, to "provide for" anyone other than their own. They ripped out 70 acres of surplus hops from their own farm in Idaho 7 years ago, that could have gone to market, and NO-ONE cried Wolf then. Why? Because it is their farm, and product, to do with as they see fit to support their needs.
 
GilaMinumBeer said:
Crums "projection" to import 44,000 pounds says nothing to what SAB Farms projected yields and actual yields were.

Yes. They do know where they stand as far as yields. Which is part of what they claim is why they are not letting any go.

Crum is NOT SAB Farms. He is a broker/importer.

The only part of that article that supports any part of your claim is a obvious, anecdotal statement about competitive advantage cited as coming from the director of hops procurement for ABI.

Yes. IIRC, March is the harvest period. Meaning they have had a measly 2 or 3 months to harvest, process, and allocate the harvest. It is doubtful that much of the CY2017 has shipped yet. Which is why I suspect the NB is still selling CY2016 hops.

However this article, and others, allude that demand within ABI/SAB breweries is lower than anticipated. I doubt ABI is going to let thousand of pounds of hops sit and rot in a freezer just to keep them off the market. If anyone can, they certainly can, I just doubt they will. If they do, then I will jump on the blame train.

According to http://allaboutbeer.com/south-african-hops/ local supply has ALWAYS been an issue (meaning even before the ABI merger). Maybe, at least now, they'll be able to provide for those they were intended for in the first place.
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"...it represented about 10 percent of the hops that SAB Hop Farms’ planned to export to foreign markets in 2017."

"It" being the 44,000 lbs.

After many years of working a hop farm they'd know if they had a bum harvest. Unless God sent a plague of locusts maybe... But we didn't read about that.
 
"...planned to export to foreign markets in 2017."

Maybe they've just been holding the 2016 harvest until now, right?
 
rodwha said:
"...it represented about 10 percent of the hops that SAB Hop Farms’ planned to export to foreign markets in 2017."

"It" being the 44,000 lbs.

After many years of working a hop farm they'd know if they had a bum harvest. Unless God sent a plague of locusts maybe... But we didn't read about that.
Click to expand...

Yes. I read that.

Le Cumbre, a brewer, expected to buy 44,000 pounds of hops from Crum, a broker/exporter.

44,000 is 10% of the 440,000 pounds SAB HF planned to export.

One of these things is not like the other. And NONE of these numbers indicate how much lower the actual numbers were than the projected numbers for the 2017CY yield. It does insinuate that SAB Farms produced at least 440,000 pounds LESS hops than expected. But again that is just projected export and not total yield.

I have read elsewhere that SAB Farms CY2017 yield came in a 1.81 million. Thus, 440,000 pounds would have been ~24% of total yield. I have not seen anything to say how much lower the 1.81M was than what they expected. Only that ABI "intends" to increase production to ~2.2 millions pounds for the 2018CY.
 
GilaMinumBeer said:
Yes. I read that.

Le Cumbre, a brewer, expected to buy 44,000 pounds of hops from Crum, a broker/exporter.

44,000 is 10% of the 440,000 pounds SAB HF planned to export.

One of these things is not like the other. And NONE of these numbers indicate how much lower the actual numbers were than the projected numbers for the 2017CY yield. It does insinuate that SAB Farms produced at least 440,000 pounds LESS hops than expected. But again that is just projected export and not total yield.

I have read elsewhere that SAB Farms CY2017 yield came in a 1.81 million. Thus, 440,000 pounds would have been ~24% of total yield. I have not seen anything to say how much lower the 1.81M was than what they expected. Only that ABI "intends" to increase production to ~2.2 millions pounds for the 2018CY.
Click to expand...

El Cumbre, the brewery, has one beer that used South African hops. That one beer uses a multitude of hops. They are a small brewery. There's no way that much hops would be ordered. That is the number for Mr Crum's imports.
 
rodwha said:
El Cumbre, the brewery, has one beer that used South African hops. That one beer uses a multitude of hops. They are a small brewery. There's no way that much hops would be ordered. That is the number for Mr Crum's imports.
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"La Cumbre’s first order for South African hops, and the entirety of Crum’s first year of business in 2012, was a whopping 220 pounds of South African hops. Last year, that number rose to more than 18,000 pounds (9.1 US tons). His projection for the 2017 harvest was to bring in around 44,000 pounds (22 US tons). While that amount of hops is a tiny fraction of the global yearly harvest, it represented about 10 percent of the hops that SAB Hop Farms’ planned to export to foreign markets in 2017."

Could be. The writing is not entirely clear. I read that as La Cumbre first ordered 220 pounds to trial the variety, ramped that up to 18K pounds for 2016, and wanted to increase to 44K pounds this year.

Either way, none of these numbers indicate actual yields for SAB Farms versus projected yields for SAB Farms to confirm or deny if there is any actual shortage.
 
rodwha said:
:smack: indeed. I assume then that you must be implying such despite that hops are harvested and bailed quite quickly. They wouldn't sit long at all.
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I implied that NortherBrewer is selling stock of 2016CY hops. :drunk:

Takes Elk Farms about 3 weeks to harvest, process, and bale. And that is using purpose built combines for the field labor of actually picking. Then they are shipped elsewhere to be pelletized (when applicable) and shipped back for cold storage. Time between harvest and post pelletized receipt could easily span 1.5 to 2 months and that is within our own national borders.

http://www.countrylife.co.za/localflavours/farming-hops suggest it takes 6 weeks JUST to harvest from the various SAB contracted farms.

Elk Mtn in Idaho send their hops to Yakima to have them pelletized. "If" and that is a BIG if SAB Farms does the same (since ABI has contracts) there is a significant amount of extra time (8-10 days/1 way) involved for shipping.

So, 6 weeks to harvest, process, bale. 2 to ship to USA and pass customs. Another 2 to pelletize and/or package for wholesale. Another 2 to repackage and stock for retail. Yes, logistically, it could easily take 3 months from harvest to on the shelves at Northern Brewer. Considering the March season for SAB Farms I am skeptical that NortherBrewer is selling 2017CY South African hops.

At any rate, even IF NorthernBrewer does have or will get a chunk of the SAB Farms goodness your snide remarks to that end are ludicrously hypocritical in that it means that ABI is making available to you, the homebrewer, what they are not making available to the craft brewer. Thus while they are foresaking the competition they are favoring homebrewers.
 
GilaMinumBeer said:
"La Cumbre’s first order for South African hops, and the entirety of Crum’s first year of business in 2012, was a whopping 220 pounds of South African hops. Last year, that number rose to more than 18,000 pounds (9.1 US tons). His projection for the 2017 harvest was to bring in around 44,000 pounds (22 US tons). While that amount of hops is a tiny fraction of the global yearly harvest, it represented about 10 percent of the hops that SAB Hop Farms’ planned to export to foreign markets in 2017."

Could be. The writing is not entirely clear. I read that as La Cumbre first ordered 220 pounds to trial the variety, ramped that up to 18K pounds for 2016, and wanted to increase to 44K pounds this year.

Either way, none of these numbers indicate actual yields for SAB Farms versus projected yields for SAB Farms to confirm or deny if there is any actual shortage.
Click to expand...

Funny. After rereading it I came to the same conclusion. It's a bit vague.
 
GilaMinumBeer said:
I implied that NortherBrewer is selling stock of 2016CY hops. :drunk:

Takes Elk Farms about 3 weeks to harvest, process, and bale. And that is using purpose built combines for the field labor of actually picking. Then they are shipped elsewhere to be pelletized (when applicable) and shipped back for cold storage. Time between harvest and post pelletized receipt could easily span 1.5 to 2 months and that is within our own national borders.

http://www.countrylife.co.za/localflavours/farming-hops suggest it takes 6 weeks JUST to harvest from the various SAB contracted farms.

Elk Mtn in Idaho send their hops to Yakima to have them pelletized. "If" and that is a BIG if SAB Farms does the same (since ABI has contracts) there is a significant amount of extra time (8-10 days/1 way) involved for shipping.

So, 6 weeks to harvest, process, bale. 2 to ship to USA and pass customs. Another 2 to pelletize and/or package for wholesale. Another 2 to repackage and stock for retail. Yes, logistically, it could easily take 3 months from harvest to on the shelves at Northern Brewer. Considering the March season for SAB Farms I am skeptical that NortherBrewer is selling 2017CY South African hops.

At any rate, even IF NorthernBrewer does have or will get a chunk of the SAB Farms goodness your snide remarks to that end are ludicrously hypocritical in that it means that ABI is making available to you, the homebrewer, what they are not making available to the craft brewer. Thus while they are foresaking the competition they are favoring homebrewers.
Click to expand...

Ah. I was referencing the stated shortage where the small unaffiliated breweries couldn't have any.

http://www.royfarms.com/hops

"Because of the tendency of many hop varieties to rapidly degrade, the time constraint from harvest, picking, kilning and through to baling is kept as short as physically possible. Depending upon the variety and crop year this may be as little as 24 hours or as long as 36 hours."

Could well be the days harvest I suppose. And size of the farm would likely come into play as well.
 
I feel I ought to apologize for being a bit short and snippy these few days. Some of my language was uncalled for I believe. Sorry. This should be a respectful conversation.
 
GilaMinumBeer said:
"La Cumbre’s first order for South African hops, and the entirety of Crum’s first year of business in 2012, was a whopping 220 pounds of South African hops. Last year, that number rose to more than 18,000 pounds (9.1 US tons). His projection for the 2017 harvest was to bring in around 44,000 pounds (22 US tons). While that amount of hops is a tiny fraction of the global yearly harvest, it represented about 10 percent of the hops that SAB Hop Farms’ planned to export to foreign markets in 2017."

Could be. The writing is not entirely clear. I read that as La Cumbre first ordered 220 pounds to trial the variety, ramped that up to 18K pounds for 2016, and wanted to increase to 44K pounds this year.

Either way, none of these numbers indicate actual yields for SAB Farms versus projected yields for SAB Farms to confirm or deny if there is any actual shortage.
Click to expand...

I emailed Mr Erway of El Cumbre brewing and was given this answer in regards to South African hops:

"We have purchased between 200-500kgs/year for the last 5 years."

That equates to up to about 1100 lbs.
 
And so that means there was to be a projected sale of 44,000 lbs to Mr Crum showing that there was no bad crop for 2017 as AB/InBev stated.
 
rodwha said:
And so that means there was to be a projected sale of 44,000 lbs to Mr Crum showing that there was no bad crop for 2017 as AB/InBev stated.
Click to expand...

As stated before, "projected" isn't "actual". Projections can't tell you if a crop was less than expected. They only tell you the "expected" part. Not that any of it matters, because since ABI didn't sign a contract for anything, they can do whatever they want.
 
rodwha said:
And so that means there was to be a projected sale of 44,000 lbs to Mr Crum showing that there was no bad crop for 2017 as AB/InBev stated.
Click to expand...

No. It does not. Just because Crum wants to buy that much does not mean SAB has that much to sell him.

If you had read the linked article you'd have seen that even the local south african breweries generally only got about 10% of what they order each year even before the ABI merger. At least now, ABI is making stronger efforts to supply the locals.
 
bleme said:
As stated before, "projected" isn't "actual". Projections can't tell you if a crop was less than expected. They only tell you the "expected" part. Not that any of it matters, because since ABI didn't sign a contract for anything, they can do whatever they want.
Click to expand...

Indeed it does. But to project a quantity that high shows there was no shortage.

And as those hops are now AB/InBev's property they can certainly do as they wish with them. But they obviously lied about the shortage and as the craft brewers feel it's to hurt their production, which is something they have been known to do.

As was stated before they'll need to suck it up and move on, and hopefully will have learned a valuable lesson.
 
We see that what Crum had projected to buy, 44,000 lbs, was just 10% of the amount that was to be sold to the US market.

"His projection for the 2017 harvest was to bring in around 44,000 pounds (22 US tons). While that amount of hops is a tiny fraction of the global yearly harvest, it represented about 10 percent of the hops that SAB Hop Farms’ planned to export to foreign markets in 2017."

That's 440,000 lbs of excess hops just to the US, which I assume was likely about the only non African market.

Here we see that this roughly 440,000 lbs was just a small portion of the typical harvest.

“The numbers seem to back up this argument, as 5 percent of the farm’s output might roughly equate to more than 55 tons of hops..."

And of course there's the conversation he stated he had. In essence you must be saying he's lying about his conversation and the numbers then. I happen to believe him.
 
My friend sent me a picture jai alai he picked up in loveland, co. Helping make my point and some of yours. If oskar blues didnt buy them out, partner, whatever the story, he wouldnt be drinking it. That said I dont think its as good as it used to be.
 
rodwha said:
We see that what Crum had projected to buy, 44,000 lbs, was just 10% of the amount that was to be sold to the US market.

"His projection for the 2017 harvest was to bring in around 44,000 pounds (22 US tons). While that amount of hops is a tiny fraction of the global yearly harvest, it represented about 10 percent of the hops that SAB Hop Farms’ planned to export to foreign markets in 2017."

That's 440,000 lbs of excess hops just to the US, which I assume was likely about the only non African market.

Here we see that this roughly 440,000 lbs was just a small portion of the typical harvest.

“The numbers seem to back up this argument, as 5 percent of the farm’s output might roughly equate to more than 55 tons of hops..."

And of course there's the conversation he stated he had. In essence you must be saying he's lying about his conversation and the numbers then. I happen to believe him.
Click to expand...

You can keep beating this dead horse all day long. It still wont tell you what actual yields were and whether or not their claims of poor yield are valid.

I believe the conversation too. Never claimed not to. But there is a HUGE difference between keeping 44,000 pounds off market and 440,000 pounds. I believe they would not think twice about holding onto the former. I very seriously doubt they'd hoard the latter and just watch it go to waste.

Given other statements about them not being able to sell their current stocks off to even their own breweries, I expect there will be a late release of these hops to market so that they at least make some revenue off of them.
 
applescrap said:
My friend sent me a picture jai alai he picked up in loveland, co. Helping make my point and some of yours. If oskar blues didnt buy them out, partner, whatever the story, he wouldnt be drinking it. That said I dont think its as good as it used to be.
Click to expand...

Oskar Blues is NOT AB/InBev.

Let me repeat, Oskar Blues is NOT AB/InBev. Two different companies, two different business practices. One we should support, and one we shouldn't.

And you wonder why some of us keep saying "You don't get it." Because you don't.

:smack:
 
slym2none said:
Oskar Blues is NOT AB/InBev.

Let me repeat, Oskar Blues is NOT AB/InBev. Two different companies, two different business practices. One we should support, and one we shouldn't.

And you wonder why some of us keep saying "You don't get it." Because you don't.

:smack:
Click to expand...

Oscar Blues is majority owned by a private equity firm.

Private equity firms don't care about beer, they care about profits (like every business).
 
AZ_IPA said:
Oscar Blues is majority owned by a private equity firm.

Private equity firms don't care about beer, they care about profits (like every business).
Click to expand...

Likely so. But are they putting forth the efforts AB/InBev does to stifle craft breweries? No. It's not even remotely the same.

Oh, and by the way I hope you read my apology as it more pointedly for you as I was more offensive to you than anyone else. I'm sorry.
 
rodwha said:
Likely so. But are they putting forth the efforts AB/InBev does to stifle craft breweries? No. It's not even remotely the same.
Click to expand...

When Oskar Blues used their new capital to buy Cigar City and distribute them to Colorado, did that not take shelf space away from another brewery? Or at a very minimum, increase beer selection so that private equities firm's beer has more of chance of being bought that some small brewery.
 
AZ_IPA said:
When Oskar Blues used their new capital to buy Cigar City and distribute them to Colorado, did that not take shelf space away from another brewery? Or at a very minimum, increase beer selection so that private equities firm's beer has more of chance of being bought that some small brewery.
Click to expand...

Probably so. Is it even remotely on the same scale? Really?

Like I said there's no issue with business, even big business. But AB/InBev practices are a whole different level. You can't compare anyone else to them. You couldn't even lump the rest together and be in the same boat.

Why is it that AB/InBev is the one you constantly read and hear about? Why aren't the others lit in the same light?

And I must say I don't like that the small craft distributor was caught doing the same pay-to-play crap. However this small business was fined $2.6B whereas AB/InBev was fined $200K. Why is that? How is that fair or right? Money and favors just like any other politricks.

I just can't support that in any fashion. We've seen how it has hurt other fields of business. It's no different.
 
AZ_IPA said:
Oscar Blues is majority owned by a private equity firm.

Private equity firms don't care about beer, they care about profits (like every business).
Click to expand...

And here I thought the sole purpose of any business was to make profits, make a good living, support your family, ect. I must be a supporter of InBev than.
 
AZ_IPA said:
When Oskar Blues used their new capital to buy Cigar City and distribute them to Colorado, did that not take shelf space away from another brewery? Or at a very minimum, increase beer selection so that private equities firm's beer has more of chance of being bought that some small brewery.
Click to expand...

If shelf space was taken away from another brewery, maybe it should be a awake up call your beer isn't that great.
 
^^ my buddy got it in Johnstown of all places. Trust me it's not as good as it used to be but it's still good. Either way don't look for it and buy it, because they took shelf space from some local Brewery. And whatever you do don't buy barrel aged 1050. I am really starting to get it now I think.
 

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