Buy or Rent

So if you were gonna move, would you think about buying another house or would you wait to see if we hit rock bottom. I'm so conflicted :cross:.

I'm almost thinking I wait and see if it gets uglier out there. I figure theres some of you out there renting today asking the same question if you were able to buy. Time to jump in yet?

I got a crap load of activity through my house (just accepted an offer). On market 45 days and I had 26 house visits. There are window shoppers out there thats for sure but my current place is a little unique. Personally I don't think we're done tanking it. But I won't have to decide until July/Aug timeframe. I'll be in temp housing for a while til this place closes Jun 25th

Its a long read but this has a co-worker who also is relocating in doom and gloom mode. That 1st quote is disturbing if valid.

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif][SIZE=+1]Here It Comes Again! [/SIZE][/FONT]

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif][SIZE=+2]Housing Bust Comes Roaring Back, Worse Than Ever [/SIZE][/FONT]

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif][SIZE=+1]By MIKE WHITNEY [/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][SIZE=+3]D[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][SIZE=-1]ue to the lifting of the foreclosure moratorium at the end of March, the downward slide in housing is gaining speed. The moratorium was initiated in January to give Obama's anti-foreclosure program -- a combination of mortgage modifications and refinancing -- a chance to succeed. The goal of the plan was to keep up to 9 million struggling homeowners in their homes. But it's clear now that the program will fall well-short of its objective. (Legislation for cram-downs, that is, allowing judges to reduce the face-value of the mortgage, is still bogged-down in Congress. Most economists believe that cramdowns are the only way to keep people from abandoning their homes when they are underwater on their loans.) [/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][SIZE=-1]In March, housing prices fell faster than anytime in the last two years. Trend-lines are now steeper than ever before, nearly perpendicular. Housing prices are not falling, they're crashing and crashing hard. Now that the foreclosure moratorium has ended, Notices of Default (NOD) have spiked to an all-time high. These Notices will turn into foreclosures in 4 to 5 months time. Market analysts predict there will be 5 million more foreclosures between now and 2011. Soaring unemployment and rising foreclosures ensure that hundreds of banks and financial institutions will be forced into bankruptcy. 40 percent of delinquent homeowners have already vacated their homes. There's nothing Obama can do to make them stay. Worse still, only 30 per cent of foreclosures have been relisted for sale suggesting major hanky-panky at the banks. Where have the houses gone? Have they simply vanished? [/SIZE][/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][SIZE=-1]Here's a excerpt from the SF Gate explaining the mystery:[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][SIZE=-1]If regulators were deployed to the banks that are keeping foreclosed homes off the market, they would probably find that the banks are actually servicing the mortgages on a monthly basis to conceal the extent of their losses. They'd also find that the banks are trying to keep housing prices artificially high to avoid heftier losses that would put them out of business. One thing is certain, 600,000 "disappeared" homes means that housing prices have a lot farther to fall and that an even larger segment of the banking system is insolvent. [/SIZE][/FONT]

continue in link:

Mike Whitney: Housing Bust Comes Roaring Back, Worse Than Ever

Once the "experts" say we've hit rock bottom, well then we will already be on the way up.

Im seriously considering renting out my house now and buying another while the buying is good

We're about to put ours up for sale. The Tulsa market hasn't fallen nearly as much as the rest of the nation, and we are in a desirable area. When we sell, gonna ride out the next year or two in a rural rental, while we build on our woodlot.

I don't care what the market is doing. Unless you way way over pay then renting is just throwing your money away to someone else. The real variable as I see it is how much more of a house can you afford to buy right now compared to last year. At least when you are making payments to a loan at some point you will be earning equity in the house.

I would only rent for a very short time if I need a place to live while looking for another house or I planned on having to move again soon or building a new house.

Buy, you can have a cheaper payment than you are paying for rent. 100k houses are going for 60-70k right now. I don't know how much more greedy you can get.

truckmann said:

I don't care what the market is doing. Unless you way way over pay then renting is just throwing your money away to someone else. The real variable as I see it is how much more of a house can you afford to buy right now compared to last year. At least when you are making payments to a loan at some point you will be earning equity in the house.

I would only rent for a very short time if I need a place to live while looking for another house or I planned on having to move again soon or building a new house.

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How's $250/mo for a 2 bedroom house sound? Owner is a friend.

If you are a first time buyer, heck yeah, time is ripe to buy. Great new tax credit also. For me it all depends if I can sell my current house. I would need a significant raise to move and maintain my current house and buy a new house somewhere else. Also depends where you are and where you're buying. Some places are more distressed than others.

I think we are going to see a bigger drop later this year or early next.

It depends on the market. I am refinancing my house. We had it appraised for the loan and it appraised $90,000 more then we paid 41/2 years ago! Every penny of rent is thrown away, but buying at least has a chance to make gains.

Chimone said:

Once the "experts" say we've hit rock bottom, well then we will already be on the way up...

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No kidding???

They're always a day late and a dollar short...that is, they'll make their money before they let you know you can make your money...

Buckhuntr said:

How's $250/mo for a 2 bedroom house sound? Owner is a friend.

Click to expand...

Sounds great and makes perfect sense while you build your house. I hope to be able to get my house ready to sell in the next couple of years and move out of town myself.

Sapulpa, eh Truckmann? The property we're going to build on is in Bristow, a couple exits down the turnpike. I'm in South Tulsa atm.

What's your time line like? If you plan on staying in the house for the next 5-10 years you should be pretty much safe from the market drops. I work in finance in Canada, but I'm pretty sure this "rule" would apply in the states too.

Denny's Evil Concoctions said:

I think we are going to see a bigger drop later this year or early next.

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I agree. From what I've read the most ARM's that were given out were not in 2004 (5 years is when the ARM begins to initially rise on most) but in 2006. There are going to be a LOT more people that are going to get hurt badly. I know a few people who were roped into ARM and now cannot refinance.... they will be hurt once they get hit with all of the interest they haven't paid off.

The market will still drop for at least another year. My hope is by next winter I will be able to buy a place where I want to live and stop wasting my money on rent here.

No one can time any market successfully all of the time. I've been fairly lucky in real estate. Out of 13 purchases, I've only lost money once and that was because the Navy transferred me right after I closed on a place. In four cases, I might have done a little better waiting longer to buy. In eight cases, waiting would have cost me.

How long I stay is the challenging question. It could be only 2-3 years or 5+. I still think there will be another dip once the next wave of people can no longer make ends meet as they tapped all their resources.

That's why renting to see if this has stabilized is not the worst deal in the world I think. I'd rather watch $13k of my $ go away to rent for a year than perhaps buy a $300k house in 2009 ( that was $360k in 2008) dip to $250k in 2010 if this keeps up.

This is west coast thinking since we're really getting banged out here but different areas are affected more/less than others. Midwest (MN) seems more stable but they still dropped 20+% since last year at this time.

One thing is a guarantee, they're not going to be screaming up in value 10% annually for quite some time.

I say you could maybe wait and cherry-pick later on in the year and get a good deal in the slow season when sellers could be desperate. December...

Buckhuntr,

Whats the name of that really great ma & pa BBQ place in Bristow? Right by the rail road tracks?

I've been there the last few winters for the grass fires....

zac said:

Buckhuntr,

Whats the name of that really great ma & pa BBQ place in Bristow? Right by the rail road tracks?

I've been there the last few winters for the grass fires....

Click to expand...

Russ' Ribs is the only one I'm aware of, and I've not had a chance to eat there yet. We only just bought land there to build on, and haven't spent any time in town yet.

My wife and I had been renting for the past 18 months or so, and decided that it was the best time for us to buy a home. Me being a social worker, and her being a hairdresser, we're not exactly rolling in dough, so we need all the help we can get. The First Time Homebuyer Credit from the Fed. Gov't is awesome. Up to $8,000 credit that you don't have to pay back? Can't beat it.

Unfortunately, our price range put us in the same market as the investors looking to flip homes. So the homebuying process was pretty tough for us.

If you're like us, and you are looking for a home where you will be in it for 5-10 years, I say buy.

We bought a place last year that we had been already living in for a couple years and paying rent on, but turns out the first time homebuyer credit didn't apply to us. The former owner is my mother-in-law, so the credit doesn't apply.

The county assessment on the property has gone down since we bought it, but I'm not planning on selling anytime soon anyway. Way I see it, let that sucker go down in value for now as I'll end up paying less property tax. In a few years a new school will be opening just up the road, so that may get the price back up.

It has been my observation that tax-appraisal and market values rarely coincide. At least in my county. Market values have held fairly steady here but have begun to drop dramatically in certain areas. I've lost some value on my current home but the tax-district hasn't caught up. I may have to go and argue to get it dropped.

I think this year might be a good one to buy if financing is available. If buying out-right I would definitely buy in the off-season. This time of the year is typically a seller's market since people like to move in the summer.

I'm no financial expert... this is just jabber...

I'd say buy, I've been thinking of doing the same, I'm a first time home buyer and with the prices that we saw here in the west a couple of years ago properties are practically a steal if you know where to look. My wife is interviewing for a job in Bend right now, since the unemployment rate in Eastern OR is so high property values have plummeted. I can get a really nice place for $150k now, would have been at least $100k more last year. I don't think the market is going to go down much more, actually home sales have went up because prices are getting cheap enough that hesitant people like first time buyers are buying now.

i voted rent but i just recently bought SWMBO has that effect.

1st time homebuyers for the credit who know (or at least believe) that you'll be there for a while does seem like a good idea.

I hate the thought of renting. I haven't done that in 16 years. I do kind of like the wait until buying season slows down. There's always that big get me in the new school district before session starts rush. Maybe see if I can wait until Sep. Motel 6 may be a nice place to hang for 2-3 months.

:fro:

Russ's dosent sound right, but I could be 100% wrong,

either way..a dang good BBQ place.

I came within an ace of buying a place towards IXL, and uprooting the family unit.

Zac, What/where is IXL?

I plan to pay off the house by the end of 2010. I'll be 100% free of debt. I plan to buy more property though after saving.

Its a really small, mostly black (yeah, in OK), community North of Henryetta, south of Bristow on Hwy 48. Okfuskee county. Basically duew west & a little south of Oakmulgee.

The middle of nowhere, seriously.

An old black guy from Micawber told me that IXL actually stands for "Indian Excange Land" and back in the day, when the natives we're "given" that land, when they moved on, white people wouldn't buy land from natives, but they still wanted to sell, so the only buyers were black folks, hence there is a pocket of predominately african american ancestry in that neck of the woods.