What no one wants to say

[An Ankoù]

Craft beer is declining. Homebrewing is dying. The macros are gaining market share while small breweries are closing. Everytime someone brings this up, there's alwasy somebody around to point out that this isn't true. But when compared to it's heyday, craft is on a major decline.

In my area, three micros closed their doors in the last year and the two closest to me are hurting and have too much debt. The largest homebrew shop near me has closed after 20 years of service at that location and another big one only opens once a week and has been sold and moved to another area.

The kids aren't drinking as much, the adults are sick of weird beers and are going back to BMC and the only thing on the shelves is an endless selection of terrible IPAs.

I don't care if this gets heat, I know a lot of people don't like to talk about it, but when an industry that was started by your local HBS largely only exists online, it's bad. There are any factors, but I think the major one is that most micros simply don't make good beer. It was enough when the market was growing and people were experimenting and willing to try anything, but these days, your roasted coffee oatmeal sour milk stout isn't going to pay the bills. I think a lot of people are being alienated by brewers with an endless appetite for innovation and wonky creativity and almost no regards for traditional processes, balance and quality control. I went on a mini beer pilgrimage not too long ago and of about 15 different styles of beer I drank, I remember only 3 or 4 that were well balanced, well elaborated and didn't suffer from some sort of defect. Unfortunately, I don't think this is going to change any time soon when brewers seem to take more pride in pushing every convention to it's limit more than they take pride in selling a second serving of the same beer.

Anyway, rant over. I'll go back into hiding for now.

Thought I'd go back to the original post to remind myself what it is no one wants to say.
If I read it aright, there's a, big, lumpy paradox here: the O P says most commercial beer is cräp, while at the same time home brewing is declining.
Is it really? Does the closure of HBSs indicate a decline in home brewing or is it just a parallel to bookshops closing due to the likes of Amazon?

Im not denying that homebrewing is in decline, just wondering if it's really the case.

 

[day_trippr]

Im not denying that homebrewing is in decline, just wondering if it's really the case.

It's really the case. Certainly compared to, say, 2010, which imo was roughly Peak Homebrew, there has been a precipitous decline in the number of folks brewing at home. It's inarguable at this point...

Cheers!

 

[worlddivides]

It's really the case. Certainly compared to, say, 2010, which imo was roughly Peak Homebrew, there has been a precipitous decline in the number of folks brewing at home. It's inarguable at this point...

Cheers!

My skepticism of the claim is not about homebrewing declining from where it was, say, pre-Covid, but the claim that craft beer is declining... from what the OP called "its peak." As I pointed out, no matter what time you considered to be its peak (2010, 2015, 2018, etc.), there are more breweries in the US now than there were then.

And, as many have pointed out, it seems very likely that the decline in homebrewing may very well be connected to the increase in craft breweries, the increase in the availability of craft beers, the increase in the variety of craft beers, and so on and so forth. But even with a decrease in homebrewing, it's far from "dying." That's like claiming that baking bread at home is "dying" because fewer people are doing it.

(And before anyone says "You mean the DECREASE in the variety of craft beers, right?!", if I was in the US, I could go to Total Wine and More or BevMo or some local large liquor store with a good craft beer selection and find really obscure, unpopular beer styles in bottles or cans, even if they might not be on tap at any of the local breweries)

 

[corkybstewart]

It's time I got to the bottom of this because I just don't get it:
The barman gives you a short measure- 13oz instead of 16oz- and then you tip him 20%!!!!

Aren't measures regulated? If you order a pint, aren't you guaranteed a pint? Are the prices published in dollars per pint or just a non-specified "glass"? When you fill up your tank with petrol (gasoline?) do you pay per gallon or does the guy pull a figure out of the air?

Why do you tip if you don't want to?
What is a "tip screen"?
Just pay for your beer and tell the server to faff-off. What would happen if you didn't tip? Would they call the cops?
I've never tipped in a bar, ever, and I've never been asked to.
Sure, if the bar's quiet and I'm having a friendly chat with the landlord or barman I'll offer him a drink, but never a tip. I don't think we even have a facility for offering tips in a pub.

What's it all about?

It's about the food service industry having excellent lobbyists who have successfully maintained a drastically lower wage for servers, who must then depend on tips to survive.

 

[corkybstewart]

But in a country with nearly 10K breweries, nearly no geography is a "beer desert" today. Drinkers can find all sorts of obscure offerings at craft breweries, at restaurants which have craft on tap, and you can find craft beer on supermarket shelves and most liquor stores will have massive offering. Craft beer is pretty much ubiquitous now.

I guess I live in one of the last semi-beer desert areas. We get a few craft beers from Albuquerque/Santa Fe, stuff like Santa Fe Brewing and La Cumbre. But we only get one or 2 of their most popular offerings. Or Marble brewing-we only get their white, none of the beers I like from them. Occasionally we get Kilt Lifter from Arizona, or Fat Tire from Colorado. But that's about it. We have 2 microbreweries in our town. One has a dull, uninspired menu that hasn't changed in years, the other is open 3 or 4 days a week for a few hours at best. So it may not technically be a desert, but it's pretty close.

 

[Snuffy]

It seems to me that, in some cases, local tap rooms have decided to focus on brewing beer for people who don't like beer. I think the tap room scene is only there because there is some sort of requirement they have one on site in order to license a brewery. That whole "strap the kids in, grab the dog and let's go slam a few" thing seems irresponsible to me. I don't get the reasoning there. I guess if it's 4% and tastes like a popsicle then it's ok to drive the kiddies home with a buzz on.
And if you gave me the choice between stepping on a nail and trivia or karaoke, I would have to request more info about the nail. All you need to do to clear me out of a bar is to put some knucklehead on a microphone who demands my attention.<boom> "Tab please".

 

[BrewZer]

And if you gave me the choice between stepping on a nail and trivia or karaoke, I would have to request more info about the nail.

There's only a smidgeon of rust on it. Right at the sharp point.

 

[Snuffy]

There's only a smidgeon of rust on it. Right at the sharp point.

What size are we talkin? 10 penny? Roofing? Ring shank or mastic coated? Plywood or 2x4? Boots or sneakers? When was my last tetanus shot?

 

[MaxStout]

The 2024 stats from BA, with lots of neat graphs showing the trends. Basically, production volume and market share (Bbls) of craft beer down, but retail sales volume up (higher prices).

https://www.brewersassociation.org/statistics-and-data/national-beer-stats/

 

[worlddivides]

The 2024 stats from BA, with lots of neat graphs showing the trends. Basically, production volume and market share (Bbls) of craft beer down, but retail sales volume up (higher prices).

https://www.brewersassociation.org/statistics-and-data/national-beer-stats/

That's really interesting. That page has info that wasn't on any of the sites I looked at before. If we consider production to be what determined the "heyday" of craft beer, it would be 2019 with a drop in 2020 (likely due to Covid) and it then coming back up but only to 2017 levels in 2021 and then down now to roughly 2015 levels. Though overall, it looks like the massive rise essentially hit around 2014 and has stayed roughly around that level since then with the highest production volume in 2019.

 

[Zadkiel]

I'd have thought, if there was any correlation between craft beer sales/brewery numbers and homebrewing, that it would be an inverse relationship?

 

[dmtaylor]

I'd have thought, if there was any correlation between craft beer sales/brewery numbers and homebrewing, that it would be an inverse relationship?

Perhaps in some areas, but most places it seems more like a direct proportional relationship. It would be interesting to see a study on this, which I doubt exists.

 

[MaxStout]

The bar graphs showing openings vs closings of micros, brewpubs and taprooms is telling. Closings outpaced openings in all 3 categories in 2024. Not a good sign.

 

[Zadkiel]

Perhaps in some areas, but most places it seems more like a direct proportional relationship. It would be interesting to see a study on this, which I doubt exists.

I'd be interested in any study on that too. As I said, my assumption would be the reverse, that less craft breweries and less craft beer being sold commercially, would equate to an increase in people making their own.

Depends on what the driving factor for the closures is. I've heard that drinking has taken a HUGE drop in popularity in the young, particularly in the 18-25 range (remember I'm in the UK so our legal drinking age is 18) - if that's the reason, that the drinking population is dying off and not being replaced, then yeah, I can see it being a direct relationship, but if it's a more economic reason, that breweries are going out of business because of higher costs or reduced spending power, then I'd expect a more inverse relationship.

 

[Bassman2003]

The tap room business model centers around higher margins per beer as well as being out the outside looking in when it comes to distributors (many who are owned by the macros). So it makes sense to have a tap room but the difficult part is getting enough people to show up on a consistent basis.

The beer should be at its peak for freshness but as a world, we are staying home more than we used to. So it is a tough slog. Add in suspect brewing quality for some and young folks turning away from drinking and you have a rebalancing of the marketplace.

You have to ask - if you had your favorite beer/brewery fresh on tap in your town (for me it would be Triple Karmeliet or Augustiner helles) how often would you go and buy? Is that enough to sustain the establishment? It is an interesting question.

 

[BrewnWKopperKat]

Is it [home brewing] really [in decline]? Does the closure of HBSs indicate a decline in home brewing or is it just a parallel to bookshops closing due to the likes of Amazon?

With regard to stores, maybe this peeked peaked when Northern Brewer was initially sold and bottomed out when Bell's General Store was closed (the store was part of the Bells Brewery but the store was opened before brewing started). There will likely be a churn in stores as this industry continues to adapt to the changing economic and demographic environment.

With regard to paid curated content (books, magazines) this may have 'peaked' around 2017 - many good books published in the 2015 - 2019 time frame. It is plausible that this market is 'mature' (much like amateur astronomy). In the last couple of years, two books have been published by expert USA-based brewers using a publisher in the UK.

With regard to online discussion, any attempts to measure it need to include all the possible online platforms. Activity will likely follow demographics.

Note to data collectors - the last dial-up call into AOL will be occurring in about 6 weeks.

 

[MaxStout]

With regard to paid curated content (books, magazines) this may have 'peaked' around 2017 - many good books published in the 2015 - 2019 time frame. It is plausible that this market is 'mature' (much like amateur astronomy). In the last couple of years, two books have been published by expert USA-based brewers using a publisher in the UK.

I think 98% of homebrewing topics have been adequately covered in books and magazines. You can tell by reading Zymurgy the past few years. They go off on tangents just to try to keep it fresh. AHA does cover new gear quite well.

I have a good collection of books, but I haven't seen much new ground covered in several years. Anything that can be written about has been written about.

I'm hard-pressed to think of many topics worthy of a new book. Perhaps a beginners to intermediate guide to all in one systems, and maybe sections on BIAB and electric brewing. Include DIY methods. A lot of new stuff since ca. 2015. While Zymurgy has covered lots of that recently, I don't see much of it in the existing books. But with the downturn in homebrewing, how many books would they sell?

 

[Zadkiel]

I'm hard-pressed to think of many topics worthy of a new book.

Enzyme use for the homebrewer? As I understand it, those used to be purely available to the pros - things like ALDC are relatively new to the homebrew world, correct?

 

[BrewnWKopperKat]

Perhaps a beginners to intermediate guide to all in one systems, and maybe sections on BIAB and electric brewing.

Palmer (beginner to intermediate) & Zainasheff (intermediate) wrote books in those areas.

Haven't see Palmer's book (yet, USA suppliers of the book are stupidly expensive). My hope is that the book includes the simple and easy LODO techniques (YOS, Trifecta / OxBlox, mash cap, minimal splashing / transfers, etc).

Enzyme use for the homebrewer? As I understand it, those used to be purely available to the pros - things like ALDC are relatively new to the homebrew world, correct?

Too small for a book. Too early for most suppliers to have 5 gal sized product (although MoreBeer has some). Appeals to advanced brewers (who may or may not be willing to talk about what they are experimenting with). Currated content providers (e.g. CB&B, BYO) who provide seminars as well as magazines will likely use the content first in their seminars and then later in magazine articles.

 

[bwible]

Everyone typically points to the "no Sunday sales", or dry counties, or limits on buying in supermarkets, etc, as specific blue laws.

Pennsylvania also had these same “blue laws”. No sunday sales, no sales in supermarkets, no sales in gas stations as some places have. We have to buy beer in one store we call a beer distributor. Beer distributors are privately owned. For a very long time PA was a case state - you could only buy beer by the case. Unless you went to a bar. You could buy a 6 pack or a 40 oz from a bar for takeout. We have to buy wine and spirits in another chain of stores that are run by the state. There are no Total Wine stores in PA. They are in NJ and DE nearby. PA only in recent years has allowed supermarkets to sell beer and wine (no spirits) and there’s a tight oz limit on how much you can buy in the supermarket. They have a seperate register and they have to scan your drivers licence into their computer and its monitored. The other day I tried to buy a 15 pack of Ultra for my wife and a 4 pack of Backwoods Bastard and I was told it was over the limit. So my wife went back after me and bought the 4 pack. What was the point?

PA is called the Quaker State. Founded by the Quakers and much of it was religious sentiment. I’m not sure how much of that still exists. But its still not as easy to get anything here as it is down south. Last time I was in Georgia you could buy beer in gas stations and you could buy a case of beer in the Krogers.

My stepdaughter lives in Virginia Beach. Their laws are different again. They have ABC stores like our state stores but only for spirits. Their Total Wine only sells beer and wine. It was weird going there compared to the ones here.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

I guess I live in one of the last semi-beer desert areas. We get a few craft beers from Albuquerque/Santa Fe, stuff like Santa Fe Brewing and La Cumbre. But we only get one or 2 of their most popular offerings. Or Marble brewing-we only get their white, none of the beers I like from them. Occasionally we get Kilt Lifter from Arizona, or Fat Tire from Colorado. But that's about it. We have 2 microbreweries in our town. One has a dull, uninspired menu that hasn't changed in years, the other is open 3 or 4 days a week for a few hours at best. So it may not technically be a desert, but it's pretty close.

You live in the literal desert, Corky!

But seriously, you live in a town of less than 10,000 people, over 100 miles from, well, pretty much anything. And you actually have a craft brewery / distillery / restaurant in town! It might be dull and uninspired, but it's there...

 

[Alfgs]

In many cases small breweries are probably closing down because people are getting higher standards.

My city is pretty much over saturated with breweries and most of them put out mediocre beers at best.
Sure, a few of them keeps putting out absolute banger after banger but with most of them I have just stopped buying their stuff.

Whenever I go to a new city I try to pick up a handfull of local beers and let me tell you, there is a lot of crappy beer out there.

As for brew shops my theory is that it is just easier to get good or great beer now.
If you know what you are looking for and at you can pick up a handfull of good, new beers every time you shop, so there really isnt a need to brew if you just want to try new stuff.
Drinking a stout and thinking "I wish this had an extra 2-3% abv"? Well, you dont have to brew it, you can probably find 10 beers just like that.

 

[MaxStout]

Palmer (beginner to intermediate) & Zainasheff (intermediate) wrote books in those areas.

Haven't see Palmer's book (yet, USA suppliers of the book are stupidly expensive). My hope is that the book includes the simple and easy LODO techniques (YOS, Trifecta / OxBlox, mash cap, minimal splashing / transfers, etc).



Too small for a book. Too early for most suppliers to have 5 gal sized product (although MoreBeer has some). Appeals to advanced brewers (who may or may not be willing to talk about what they are experimenting with). Currated content providers (e.g. CB&B, BYO) who provide seminars as well as magazines will likely use the content first in their seminars and then later in magazine articles.

Forgot about Palmer.

LODO coverage would be nice. Enzymes could be incorporated into a mash section.

Maybe all that, plus gear, etc., could be rolled into a new book. Call it "Modern Homebrewing Methods and Gear," or some such. Cover changes from the last 10-15 years or so in one book. Paging @julia_1...

 

[bwible]

One of things I didn’t see mentioned is the price of going to a micro and eating and drinking out. When its just me and my wife. If we go out and have 2 beers each and they’re $7 or $8 each, and then we get dinner, let’s say its a modest $25 each. So we have about $30 in beer and $50 in food. And we haven’t added on a tip. How many times a week or even how many times a month are we going to do that? We have food and beer at home.

 

[mac_1103]

One of things I didn’t see mentioned is the price of going to a micro and eating and drinking out.

Well, this is page six and it's way back on page two, so we'll forgive you for missing it.

 

[FloppyKnockers]

One of things I didn’t see mentioned is the price of going to a micro and eating and drinking out. When its just me and my wife. If we go out and have 2 beers each and they’re $7 or $8 each, and then we get dinner, let’s say its a modest $25 each. So we have about $30 in beer and $50 in food. And we haven’t added on a tip. How many times a week or even how many times a month are we going to do that? We have food and beer at home.

I think it was mentioned in chapter three of this never-ending saga.

 

[bwible]

Another analogue: Bad music has been a big part of the playlists of commercial radio stations for decades. Certainly some good music has also found its way onto the airwaves, but a lot of the pop music that makes the cut is vapid dreck that's like empty calories. Yet millions of people still listen to it, enjoy it and buy the music.

Some stores I go in make me wonder if they’re trying to drive people away with the music

 

[bwible]

Well, this is page six and it's way back on page two, so we'll forgive you for missing it.

I retired last year and have no income anymore. I’m not collecting SS yet. So things like this are becoming even more of a consideration.

 

[user 348755]

In many cases small breweries are probably closing down because people are getting higher standards.

My city is pretty much over saturated with breweries and most of them put out mediocre beers at best.
Sure, a few of them keeps putting out absolute banger after banger but with most of them I have just stopped buying their stuff.

Whenever I go to a new city I try to pick up a handfull of local beers and let me tell you, there is a lot of crappy beer out there.

As for brew shops my theory is that it is just easier to get good or great beer now.
If you know what you are looking for and at you can pick up a handfull of good, new beers every time you shop, so there really isnt a need to brew if you just want to try new stuff.
Drinking a stout and thinking "I wish this had an extra 2-3% abv"? Well, you dont have to brew it, you can probably find 10 beers just like that.

Mediocre beers is one the biggest culprits in my opinion. They alienate the common drinkers and insult the beer lovers.

I tried a brewery (amongst a few others) not too long ago and every single one of their beers had some kind of gimmick to it. No true to style offerings. Had to try 4 of them and didn't even like a single one as I couldn't even figure out what they were going for. I went for their "tropical fruit IPA" expecting those flavors to come from proper yeast and hop usage but found out they dosed it with actual fruit juice. Pineapple, orange etc...what's the point?

I don't think there's a viable market for this type of junk. The purists don't enjoy it and the pedestrian drinkers will probably just order a fruit seltzer for their second round.

I was discussing this problem with a commercial brewer who insists on traditional methods and ingredients and we were in agreement that at some point, some kind of trade certification akin to the German purity law might be supported by the industry to protect its image and inform the consumers. Not a law per se, but a way to identify brewers who won't dose you with lactose or or fruit juice without telling you.

 

[bwible]

Mediocre beers is one the biggest culprits in my opinion. They alienate the common drinkers and insult the beer lovers.

I tried a brewery (amongst a few others) not too long ago and every single one of their beers had some kind of gimmick to it. No true to style offerings. Had to try 4 of them and didn't even like a single one as I couldn't even figure out what they were going for. I went for their "tropical fruit IPA" expecting those flavors to come from proper yeast and hop usage but found out they dosed it with actual fruit juice. Pineapple, orange etc...what's the point?

I don't think there's a viable market for this type of junk. The purists don't enjoy it and the pedestrian drinkers will probably just order a fruit seltzer for their second round.

I was discussing this problem with a commercial brewer who insists on traditional methods and ingredients and we were in agreement that at some point, some kind of trade certification akin to the German purity law might be supported by the industry to protect its image and inform the consumers. Not a law per se, but a way to identify brewers who won't dose you with lactose or or fruit juice without telling you.

Something like this?

Many beer lovers want to know who makes their beer. The independent craft brewer seal is a handy tool for beer drinkers to easily differentiate beer from small and independent craft brewers and beer produced by other, non-craft companies. The sealOpens in new window is a visual signal to help you make decisions when you shop—when you see the seal, it’s your sign that the beer you’re buying is from an independent craft brewer.

I don’t know if this means you won’t get fruit juice though