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While this has been an amusing conversation to read, I've seen it before and it does not much matter to me.

The reason I'm here is 'cause I make my own beer.

The way I like it and mostly better than I can buy it.

Styles, trends and demographics be damned. [;

I guess if things were to go so far downhill I could not buy good malted barley, it would be a problem, but I don't think we're close to that as of yet.
Ok, but it just cost me $55 bucks to brew and Italian Pils and this is not enough for my LHBS to make a decent cut, apparently.
 
I'm not sure this is even one of the top 10 drivers for the craft downturn. What I think you're suggesting is that if "some" of the breweries are making bad beer or butchering a style, a good portion of otherwise ambitious consumers will get tired of looking for a brewery that makes better beer or beer truer to style and because of that exhaustion, they give up on craft breweries altogether. If I'm wrong correct me.

The reason why I reject the claim is that product quality variation is to be expected in any market for any product. People are used to it. Restaurants are probably the easiest analog. I've had a terrible meal at a place that looked like it wouldn't be terrible. It never made me stop eating at restaurants on occasion. I just write a bad google review and try a new place until I find one that delivers the goods.

At the topmost level, supply is significantly outweighing demand and bad brewers and bad businesspeople are suffering the first round of losses as expected. In some rare cases, bad beer is surviving in some local markets due to other factors like lack of alternative social gathering spaces or whatever it may be.

I mean, this isn't a mystery.. Here's another loose chart I drew, not exactly to scale but based on data found for each vector.. Demand really isn't down that much. You can see there is a definite inverse crossover between beer and MJ so you can say that demand for intoxicants is about flat but breweries overbuilt at much bigger rate than demand. In other words, even if breweries served beer AND cannabis, they'd still be going out of business.
View attachment 881823


What aspiring brewery owners really didn't think hard enough about is that for any given beer market in their city, the first brewery is killing it because they have 100% of the business. The next guy is going to share it, maybe 50/50 or better or worse. Now we're into the 4-5 breweries in any given drivable radius. I still have homebrew customers in my store talking about opening a brewing soon. The question I always have is, "what is your plan to grab a significant portion of the local market share away from all the other breweries that have been established?" The truth is, the incumbents had practice during the boom and they're already dabbling in pivoting during the bust (but with previous cash flow to buffer stupid mistakes). How is the startup going to make major moves?
Great comment, nice work on the chart. Not sure i agree with the restaurant analogy. If you get food poisoning at your local mom and pop diner, you aren't going to stop eating, but you will stop eating at those kinds of places. perhaps favoring MacDonalds or a three star Michelin restaurant the next time you want to eat out.

And the music industry is the same. Sales are low, new artists are not making money unless they are being pushed on the radio and podcasts, ebooks and other media are swallowing a huge share of that market and of people's attention. We can try to examine it and this is what Iam trying to do. I've provided my opinions on why I think micros are losing market share to macros.

In any case, my point throughout this thread is that the "craft" part of craft and homebrewing is indeed dying. Sure, you can still get equipment and ingredients by going to morebeer.com but their sales are not a measure of the health of the industry. Club membership, forum engagement and local groups and retailers are the true mark of health of the market, not the bottom line of large grain distros.

Anyway, a lot valid points and counterpoint have been made, too.many to adress...
 
I agree. That should be the case, but what I don't get is why a glut of domestic malt is quickly narrowing the gap in terms of cost with a post-Brexit sack of Otter, or German malt. All malt is getting more expensive, which is reasonable given the externalities in play in the market, by why is domestic malt outstripping the imported malts?

And then there's corn, that makes no sense whatsoever. The US economy is, in large part, built upon cheap and ubiquitous corn. We grow so much of the crap that we've passed laws mandating that the surplus crop must be turned into less energy dense, more expensive, ethanol to be burned in our cars. Why is the cost of corn suddenly rivaling the cost of imported malt?
Same reason that flaked rice from the Indian section of the grocery store is less than half the price of flaked rice at the LHBS, even though it is the exact same thing. The people who sell to the grocery store aren't aware people pay double at the LHBS
 
I'm not sure i agree that covid had anything to do with LHBSs closing since most of these businesses predated covid by decades and were mostly profitable until recently.

I don't necessarily think COVID was the main culprit, I just think COVID could have been the catalyst that may have triggered a lot of larger boons for the industry and hobby. Like post COVID inflation or people buying equipment just to sell it at a loss a year or two later (Good sales for LHBS during COVID, then non-existant sales after) etc. Before COVID, there wasn't hundreds of homebrew setups to pick through on FB or CL for gear and they were bought at LHBS's which kept them chugging along.

That said, I still think the main reasons for the down turn is (in no particular order):
1. oversaturazation by sub par breweries.
2. less drinking overall from younger generations (for a lot of reasons)
3. The rise of Seltzers, Kombuchas, Ciders, etc.
 
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I've got 3 breweries/brew-pubs within a half-hour drive, that make pretty darned good beer, and have great food, or at least decent snacks. But it's only a rare treat that I patronize any of them, because:
  • I'm old, and mostly retired. I'd LOVE to have a beer or three and a nice lunch at your brewery/brew-pub. BUT YOU NEVER OPEN BEFORE 3pm except on weekends.
  • $8.00/pint (and that pint glass has maybe 13 ounces of actual beer) is too expensive (for small-town Minnesota).
  • That tip screen, with the lowest gratuity defaulting to 20% really grates on me. Especially when the server knows nothing about the beer!
/ puts onion back on belt and
// ends grumpy-old-man-rant
 
The ones that seem to stick around for a while here usually have a mix of consistency, atmosphere, and location.
 
I've got 3 breweries/brew-pubs within a half-hour drive, that make pretty darned good beer, and have great food, or at least decent snacks. But it's only a rare treat that I patronize any of them, because:
  • I'm old, and mostly retired. I'd LOVE to have a beer or three and a nice lunch at your brewery/brew-pub. BUT YOU NEVER OPEN BEFORE 3pm except on weekends.
  • $8.00/pint (and that pint glass has maybe 13 ounces of actual beer) is too expensive (for small-town Minnesota).
  • That tip screen, with the lowest gratuity defaulting to 20% really grates on me. Especially when the server knows nothing about the beer!
/ puts onion back on belt and
// ends grumpy-old-man-rant
20% !?
 
I agree. That should be the case, but what I don't get is why a glut of domestic malt is quickly narrowing the gap in terms of cost with a post-Brexit sack of Otter, or German malt. All malt is getting more expensive, which is reasonable given the externalities in play in the market, by why is domestic malt outstripping the imported malts?

And then there's corn, that makes no sense whatsoever. The US economy is, in large part, built upon cheap and ubiquitous corn. We grow so much of the crap that we've passed laws mandating that the surplus crop must be turned into less energy dense, more expensive, ethanol to be burned in our cars. Why is the cost of corn suddenly rivaling the cost of imported malt?
It's not everything (everything) is getting more valuable, it's that the dollar is getting less valuable. Or, rather, that after the dollar started decoupling from middle Eastern crude a couple of years ago, it's value is now inevitably floating down to the productivity of the US economy divided by the number of dollars denominating it. Probably it's got quite a ways to fall yet.

Or so I've heard. Anyway, we are poor now. Seems to me that, at some point, that should encourage Homebrewing. I think the future of the hobby will be more like the past than the present--more plastic buckets, less stainless steel.

Honestly those were great times though.
 
I've got 3 breweries/brew-pubs within a half-hour drive, that make pretty darned good beer, and have great food, or at least decent snacks. But it's only a rare treat that I patronize any of them, because:
  • I'm old, and mostly retired. I'd LOVE to have a beer or three and a nice lunch at your brewery/brew-pub. BUT YOU NEVER OPEN BEFORE 3pm except on weekends.
  • $8.00/pint (and that pint glass has maybe 13 ounces of actual beer) is too expensive (for small-town Minnesota).
  • That tip screen, with the lowest gratuity defaulting to 20% really grates on me. Especially when the server knows nothing about the beer!
/ puts onion back on belt and
// ends grumpy-old-man-rant
It's time I got to the bottom of this because I just don't get it:
The barman gives you a short measure- 13oz instead of 16oz- and then you tip him 20%!!!!

Aren't measures regulated? If you order a pint, aren't you guaranteed a pint? Are the prices published in dollars per pint or just a non-specified "glass"? When you fill up your tank with petrol (gasoline?) do you pay per gallon or does the guy pull a figure out of the air?

Why do you tip if you don't want to?
What is a "tip screen"?
Just pay for your beer and tell the server to faff-off. What would happen if you didn't tip? Would they call the cops?
I've never tipped in a bar, ever, and I've never been asked to.
Sure, if the bar's quiet and I'm having a friendly chat with the landlord or barman I'll offer him a drink, but never a tip. I don't think we even have a facility for offering tips in a pub.

What's it all about?
 
What's it all about?
It very quickly becomes a political topic (involving topics like, but not limited to, health insurance) and in the USA, the discussion will vary (by state or region, by urban or rural population, ... ).

Please, "let's not go there" in this topic or any of the other non-subscriber forums.
 
I'll tip for pours, but not for products. Perhaps $1 per glass makes the math and data entry easy.
Right. Most of the places I go it's not $X/pint anyway. Beers are priced differently and available in two or three different size pours. Did the server have to do more work to bring you the 10 oz Imperial Stout or the 20 oz Pale Ale? Or was it actually pretty much the same?

I almost never use a default tip option anyway, even if they start lower than 20%. I have to check the math anyway to be sure they aren't making me tip on the tax on top of everything else, and at that point it's easier to just calculate what I actually want to give them.
 
It very quickly becomes a political topic (involving topics like, but not limited to, health insurance) and in the USA, the discussion will vary (by state or region, by urban or rural population, ... ).

Please, "let's not go there" in this topic or any of the other non-subscriber forums.
Oh wow.
I didn't realise it was such a sensitive /contentious subject. I'm even more confused now. But I'll let it lie.
 
It's time I got to the bottom of this because I just don't get it:
The barman gives you a short measure- 13oz instead of 16oz- and then you tip him 20%!!!!

Aren't measures regulated? If you order a pint, aren't you guaranteed a pint? Are the prices published in dollars per pint or just a non-specified "glass"? When you fill up your tank with petrol (gasoline?) do you pay per gallon or does the guy pull a figure out of the air?

Why do you tip if you don't want to?
What is a "tip screen"?
Just pay for your beer and tell the server to faff-off. What would happen if you didn't tip? Would they call the cops?
I've never tipped in a bar, ever, and I've never been asked to.
Sure, if the bar's quiet and I'm having a friendly chat with the landlord or barman I'll offer him a drink, but never a tip. I don't think we even have a facility for offering tips in a pub.

What's it all about?

Tipping in the US is getting out of hand. It's always been customary for situations like table service (wait staff are paid less than minimum wage and rely on tips to make up the difference). More and more point of sale systems have the tip prompt built in and it usually lets you opt out or pay a custom amount.

Some bars and restaurants will include an automatic 20% "service charge" so they can pay the workers a better wage. In Minnesota where I live, the law requires the establishment to inform customers in advance, but that's not necessarily the case elsewhere. Look over your bill before paying. If the mandatory charge is there, a tip is not necessary.

If I have to stand in line to buy something, no tip. The person just handed me a cup of coffee or a sandwich. They just did their job for which they receive a wage. For bartender service, usually a dollar tip per drink is customary.

As for pint fills, there's generally no measurement law like in Europe. Here it's considered a "nominal" value. Different for gasoline--every state has weights and measures enforcement and gas pumps must be calibrated and certified. Same for scales at grocery stores--a pound of meat or produce had better be a pound.

It would be nice if we had a system like in some other countries, where tipping isn't a big thing and service workers were paid a decent wage. But tipping is ingrained in the culture in the US and Canada.
 
It's been a while, but the last time I was in Quebec service was included. And wait staff would actually refuse extra tips.

On the way to Alaska 2 years ago we went through MB, SK, AB, BC, and YT. US-style tipping was in place everywhere we stopped.

Must be the French influence in Quebec.
 
It's time I got to the bottom of this because I just don't get it:
The barman gives you a short measure- 13oz instead of 16oz- and then you tip him 20%!!!!

Aren't measures regulated? If you order a pint, aren't you guaranteed a pint? Are the prices published in dollars per pint or just a non-specified "glass"? When you fill up your tank with petrol (gasoline?) do you pay per gallon or does the guy pull a figure out of the air?

Why do you tip if you don't want to?
What is a "tip screen"?
Just pay for your beer and tell the server to faff-off. What would happen if you didn't tip? Would they call the cops?
I've never tipped in a bar, ever, and I've never been asked to.
Sure, if the bar's quiet and I'm having a friendly chat with the landlord or barman I'll offer him a drink, but never a tip. I don't think we even have a facility for offering tips in a pub.

What's it all about?
Restaurants and bars have always been a tip for service business in the states. In fact owners can legally pay the staff less money than they are required to for non tipped staff.

Now here is where tipping is getting out of ******* control over here. Want a cup of coffee, a sub from subway or a pizza from a food truck, they all expect you to tip now.

I bet you within a few months the self checkout kiosks are going to start asking you to tip them for the opportunity to be their servants. Such is life in the good ole USofA...
 
Tipping in the US is getting out of hand. It's always been customary for situations like table service (wait staff are paid less than minimum wage and rely on tips to make up the difference). More and more point of sale systems have the tip prompt built in and it usually lets you opt out or pay a custom amount.

Some bars and restaurants will include an automatic 20% "service charge" so they can pay the workers a better wage. In Minnesota where I live, the law requires the establishment to inform customers in advance, but that's not necessarily the case elsewhere. Look over your bill before paying. If the mandatory charge is there, a tip is not necessary.

If I have to stand in line to buy something, no tip. The person just handed me a cup of coffee or a sandwich. They just did their job for which they receive a wage. For bartender service, usually a dollar tip per drink is customary.

As for pint fills, there's generally no measurement law like in Europe. Here it's considered a "nominal" value. Different for gasoline--every state has weights and measures enforcement and gas pumps must be calibrated and certified. Same for scales at grocery stores--a pound of meat or produce had better be a pound.

It would be nice if we had a system like in some other countries, where tipping isn't a big thing and service workers were paid a decent wage. But tipping is ingrained in the culture in the US and Canada.
Thanks for that. Most helpful.
I guess if most people objected, things would change, but they don't. I get a sense that people are becoming uneasy with having to positively opt out, which can be embarrassing.

Before I left the UK, restaurants and cafés were beginning to present tabs with "service charge of x% is included in the bill". You could ask for it to be removed. When I visited in June, the tabs simply said "service not included". That may have been coincidence, but it seems to mark a trend.
Traditionally a gratuity would be offered in a restaurant or to a taxi driver, but it was never asked for.
How things change.
 
In the US there's a glut of malt that has nowhere to go, yet sacks of malt keep getting ever more expensive.

Probably transport costs keeping malt sack prices way up there.

A thought experiment on where the added costs are coming from:
  1. Get the price for a 50# bag of Briess Brewers malt at Northern Brewer, MoreBeer, and RiteBrew. Then add the shipping cost. Then estimate the distance the bag had to travel to get to the 'store' and then to your location.
  2. Compare MoreBeer's prices / free shipping rate to other regional suppliers that also offer free shipping (but at a higher threshold).
Do lower free shipping thresholds and higher shipping costs require higher product prices?
 
A thought experiment on where the added costs are coming from:
  1. Get the price for a 50# bag of Briess Brewers malt at Northern Brewer, MoreBeer, and RiteBrew. Then add the shipping cost. Then estimate the distance the bag had to travel to get to the 'store' and then to your location.
  2. Compare MoreBeer's prices / free shipping rate to other regional suppliers that also offer free shipping (but at a higher threshold).
Do lower free shipping thresholds and higher shipping costs require higher product prices?

I've done just that more than a few times. Open several browser tabs, go to those sites, put the goods in the shopping cart of each, add shipping to my location, check the total costs. It may vary for other people, based on distance, but the results might be surprising.

I think there's no such thing as "free shipping." They'll make up for it in other ways.
 
It would be interesting to know what percentage of the electronic tips from the iPads even go to the employees (vs to the owners). I have often asked the employees and they don't often know. I bet it is far less than 100%.

I suspect most employees would prefer a $1 or $2 cash tip with each round of beers although most of us don't carry much cash anymore.
 
It would be interesting to know what percentage of the electronic tips from the iPads even go to the employees (vs to the owners). I have often asked the employees and they don't often know. I bet it is far less than 100%.

I suspect most employees would prefer a $1 or $2 cash tip with each round of beers although most of us don't carry much cash anymore.

I think it's a truth-in-advertising thing. If they state that it's a "service charge," without any qualifiers, owners could keep some or all of it, douchey as that is. OTOH, if they claim it's to comp staff, it had better go to them. Our state AG's office has gone after a few places where owners pocketed that money. That was one of the factors that led our legislature to pass the "no hidden fees" statute a couple years ago.
 
A thought experiment on where the added costs are coming from:
  1. Get the price for a 50# bag of Briess Brewers malt at Northern Brewer, MoreBeer, and RiteBrew. Then add the shipping cost. Then estimate the distance the bag had to travel to get to the 'store' and then to your location.
  2. Compare MoreBeer's prices / free shipping rate to other regional suppliers that also offer free shipping (but at a higher threshold).
Do lower free shipping thresholds and higher shipping costs require higher product prices?
I can't get a sack of Briess 2-row for less than $33 and that's a full pallet with a $10K order discount applied. Add $3.75 per sack for freight. It doesn't matter which of the four available distributors I use, it's all plus or minus a couple dollars. Even when I could buy Briess direct from them, it was only $1 cheaper landed.
Add costs: $6 Labor for receiving, picking and boxing. $2 transaction fee.

$33+3.75+6+2=$44.75 in DIRECT costs to get it into the UPS truck. I'm selling a sack for $52 and charging actual shipping cost.

Same reason that flaked rice from the Indian section of the grocery store is less than half the price of flaked rice at the LHBS, even though it is the exact same thing. The people who sell to the grocery store aren't aware people pay double at the LHBS
There's really some nuance here. Flaked rice is a commodity that also happens to be a specialty product within the brewing market. Since it's a relatively low volume item through the homebrew distributors, they have to make more money on it to incentivize even carrying it.
 
Around here the iPad just says "add tip" without specifying who it is that you're tipping. I think a lot of places distribute and report electronic tips based on assumptions rather than how much a given customer actually leaves. It does almost make me want to start carrying a wad of small bills around so I can tip individuals directly in cash, but even then how would I know that the servers are taking care of the kitchen staff?
 
I can't get a sack of Briess 2-row for less than $33 and that's a full pallet with a $10K order discount applied. Add $3.75 per sack for freight. It doesn't matter which of the four available distributors I use, it's all plus or minus a couple dollars. Even when I could buy Briess direct from them, it was only $1 cheaper landed.
Add costs: $6 Labor for receiving, picking and boxing. $2 transaction fee.

$33+3.75+6+2=$44.75 in DIRECT costs to get it into the UPS truck. I'm selling a sack for $52 and charging actual shipping cost.


There's really some nuance here. Flaked rice is a commodity that also happens to be a specialty product within the brewing market. Since it's a relatively low volume item through the homebrew distributors, they have to make more money on it to incentivize even carrying it.
Thanks for sharing, I have always thought HBSs make minimal margin on sacks of malts. This proves it.

I am curious what BSG is charging for Euro malts I would imagine it's close to $50-$60 depending on quantity? It seems most of these sell for $30-$40 over in Europe/UK.
 
Grab the neon sign on the way out. You can get ~$200 for those on Craigslist
Stopped in for a pint while out running errands. On my way out, I had a pretty aggressive chuckle when I saw this and remembered your post. I probably looked like a psychopath.

I left it... probably couldn't get any more than 40 bucks on the open sign black market.

20250809_114105.jpg
 
Around here the iPad just says "add tip" without specifying who it is that you're tipping. I think a lot of places distribute and report electronic tips based on assumptions rather than how much a given customer actually leaves. It does almost make me want to start carrying a wad of small bills around so I can tip individuals directly in cash, but even then how would I know that the servers are taking care of the kitchen staff?

I've started paying tips in cash, when I have it on me. I like to make sure the server really gets the $$ (no idea if they share with kitchen staff). Also, there are a few places we like to go to that are notorious for not clearing the tip charge with my bank for a couple weeks. Minor hassle, but I check my balance online quite frequently, and find some discrepancy and have to go looking to see what's not posted.
 
I used to spend probably 120 bucks a month in brew pubs and tap rooms. You could walk in and find a varied menu that usually included an IPA, a stout, a siason, a pale and maybe a porter or brown ale as the staples and then the rest was a seasonal mix of fruitedkolshsourblahblahblah. Prices ranged from 5 to 7 bucks a pint and the world was good. The clientele was business afters and 30 somethings and the bartender knew your name and you his or hers.

Over time, there was a shift and the fruitedkolshsourblah went to the front of the menu along with 3 IPAs and maybe a pale. The browns and porters and stouts and saisons became the seasonal end and it was 8 or 9 bucks a pint and smaller 8 or 10 oz pours of anything interesting or oaked. They brought in shuffle board and bocce ball and dog bowl stations and the clientele turned into 20 and 30 somethings with kids and dogs and man buns and half-shaved heads with lots of unfortunate tattoos and cringe-worthy face bangles. The bartenders were a revolving mix of alternative lifestylers who didn't know anything about beer besides what tap number it was on.

Needless to say, we eventually found ourselves back spending our money at the old standby pubs and accepted we had aged out of the tap room scene. If they fold and go away I will be sad but unaffected. If you jump on the bandwagon of a fad scene, then your fate is tied to the duration of that fad.
 
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Thanks for sharing, I have always thought HBSs make minimal margin on sacks of malts. This proves it.

I am curious what BSG is charging for Euro malts I would imagine it's close to $50-$60 depending on quantity? It seems most of these sell for $30-$40 over in Europe/UK.
Crisp Floor Malted Maris is around $53 pre-freight.
 
I used to spend probably 120 bucks a month in brew pubs and tap rooms. You could walk in and find a varied menu that usually included an IPA, a stout, a siason, a pale and maybe a porter or brown ale as the staples and then the rest was a seasonal mix of fruitedkolshsourblahblahblah. Prices ranged from 5 to 7 bucks a pint and the world was good. The clientele was business afters and 30 somethings and the bartender knew your name and you his or hers.

Needless to say, we eventually found ourselves back spending our money at the old standby pubs and accepted we had aged out of the tap room scene. If they fold and go away I will be sad but unaffected.
You have a “way with words”. Looking forward to more of your commentary.
 
$33+3.75+6+2=$44.75 in DIRECT costs to get it into the UPS truck. I'm selling a sack for $52 and charging actual shipping cost.
I've personally found ordering 40 lbs from you is the sweet spot for me. I fill two 5 gallon buckets, it can be a mix of grains, and UPS shipping is only ~$23. It works out to about the same per lb price as a sack, but much easier to manage inventory.
 
There's really some nuance here. Flaked rice is a commodity that also happens to be a specialty product within the brewing market. Since it's a relatively low volume item through the homebrew distributors, they have to make more money on it to incentivize even carrying it.
I get that, and i don't mind supporting LHBS, but i'm not going to pay more than double for it.
 
$33+3.75+6+2=$44.75 in DIRECT costs to get it into the UPS truck. I'm selling a sack for $52 and charging actual shipping cost.

I've personally found ordering 40 lbs from you is the sweet spot for me. I fill two 5 gallon buckets, it can be a mix of grains, and UPS shipping is only ~$23. It works out to about the same per lb price as a sack, but much easier to manage inventory.
I see a similar sweet spot with the regional online store that I use (and the store does not use free shipping). That regional online store also works with two shippers (one national and one regional). Most of the time, the national shipper is more expensive by about 10% (shipping cost, not total order). The regional shipper has been in business for 20+ years and continuing to grow in the region.
 
I've personally found ordering 40 lbs from you is the sweet spot for me. I fill two 5 gallon buckets, it can be a mix of grains, and UPS shipping is only ~$23. It works out to about the same per lb price as a sack, but much easier to manage inventory.

There was a time when, if I wanted a sack of malt I'd order five 10lb bags from MoreBeer and get free shipping. I don't know if that's still a viable option, as I haven't ordered from them in quite a while.

Lately I've been rotating so many different styles in my brewing plans that I rarely want to buy a whole sack of any one base malt. Now I just plan ahead my next 3 or 4 brews and order what I need by the pound from Brew Hardware or Ritebrew.
 

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