What no one wants to say

[Pennine]

We need to be realistic regarding brewery numbers.

2024 - 9,922
2023 - 9,906
2022 - 9,824
2021 - 9,384
2020 - 9,092
2015 - 4,841
1976 - 103

Even if we see a 10% decline we are still talking 9,000 breweries.

 

[Halfakneecap]

Here in Aus, some are closing, but as has been said, there are still a heap more than pre covid. Lots.

What's really popular here is small breweries in industrial areas with a food truck ( usually changes week to week ). A lot less regulation than an actual brewpub. Though quite a few local pubs will have a local craft beer or 2 on tap.

And yeah, as a parent to 15,18 and 20yr olds, drinking is nowhere near as popular as when i was their age. Which i think is a good thing.

It's also relatively expensive as Australia gets a lot of income from "vice" taxes, like alcohol, gambling and cigarettes. If we taxed the mega mining companies tax on the billions they make from natural resources, beer ( and just about everything else ) could be almost free. We're not that smart though

The "faux sour" beer thing annoys the hell out of me. Bland beer with lactic acid and fruit essence. Psychedelic can and charge big $$$ for it ( old man shakes fist at cloud ). lol

 

[Miraculix]

I think it's a healthy market development. The times are over when one could excite the whole town with a very hot IPA or hazy. It's nice to have a good IPA but the market does not need twenty of them, from which the half is probably poorly executed.

People want quality. Coors and bud is high quality stuff, that's why they are selling. Granted, the specific type of beer might be too bland for some, but within the realm of light lager, their stuff is high quality.

The breweries that will produce high quality and also balanced brews as their staples, will win. Not too much into the extremes. Obviously for the same of our there can be special editions or seasonal brews or whatnot, but the core moneymakers should be balanced stuff that is of high quality. This sells and I want to drink that . I don't want twenty hasty iPas. I want a bitter, a IPA, a session apa and maybe a saison. Not high abv. Normal saison.

Maybe the people are scared of brewing normal brews because it's easy to see when they mess them up.

 

[dmtaylor]

We have 3 kids and 6 grandkids. None of them drink alcohol. None of their friends seem to have any interest in even social drinking. Almost all of them went to college and never drank to any degree in college. None of them learned how to even pour a tap beer in college. Quite a few of them won't even drink soda. The world is changing.

As I recall Millennials drink 20% less than Baby Boomers and Gen Z'ers drink 20% less than Milennials. That is a 40% drop in just 2 generations.

I'm a beer nerd and my 3 kids are all adults. Obviously they all grew up with beer, around beer, and reluctantly tasted sips of my beer over the years. And now that they are all grown up, I try to get them into beer, and,,, they just won't have it. To this day, I've still never taken my oldest out for a beer at the local pub. He says we should do that sometime, but anytime I ask he's like, nah, he'd rather do something else. They don't want to drink at all, don't want to hang out at the bar, or drink at home either. Part of it I think is that they were taught in schools from like 1st grade on up that "alcohol is a drug, and drugs are bad" -- it was drilled into them relentlessly. And these kids... they're a much different generation. They grew up indoors. They endured COVID lockdown for years. And as a result, many of them just have zero interest in the outside world. They'd rather play video games, watch TikTok & YouTube, or text their online friends than get out and do anything social, which includes drinking. They might go out if forced but it's not like it was in our day... they're not going out to get trashed in the woods and get into trouble. Sometimes I wish my kids were more trouble like I was! To be honest, I'm not sure what they go out to do, on the rare occasion that they do go out. Whatever it is, it's not too exciting, and not very often. On the AVERAGE, I mean. There's always exceptions, of course, but I see the vast majority being more like introverts who don't want much social interaction in person, in the flesh, at a bar or social gathering. The average young person just does not wanna drink. Not beer, and not anything else for that matter. For many, the fizzy seltzers are about as close as they might ever get to consuming alcohol. But the average young person doesn't even want that either. They'd rather be on their screens 24-7.

 

[dmtaylor]

We need to be realistic regarding brewery numbers.

2024 - 9,922
2023 - 9,906
2022 - 9,824
2021 - 9,384
2020 - 9,092
2015 - 4,841
1976 - 103

Even if we see a 10% decline we are still talking 9,000 breweries.

What no one wants to say (but some have already and I'll point it out again):

Of those 9922 breweries, about half of them produce only 10+ variations on IPAs or slushies or sours, and maybe 1 or 2 crappy "lagers". No other styles.

I hope those places die first, dammit.

 

[mac_1103]

they're not going out to get trashed in the woods and get into trouble

Well TBH those were not exactly my proudest moments.

 

[dmtaylor]

Well TBH those were not exactly my proudest moments.

But it's such an important part of being a human being on this planet! To NOT do those things and get into occasional trouble..... we're evolving into an inferior species!!!

 

[mac_1103]

Getting into occasional trouble is one thing. Stumbling around in the dark and vomiting on your friends' shoes is another.

 

[Agent]

What no one wants to say (but some have already and I'll point it out again):

Of those 9922 breweries, about half of them produce only 10+ variations on IPAs or slushies or sours, and maybe 1 or 2 crappy "lagers". No other styles.

I hope those places die first, dammit.

I tried out a place who's brand was making classic beers with a new twist.

That new twist was heavily dry hopped with NZ hops, and maybe some lactose or a fruit flavor.

I was a sad panda.

 

[dmtaylor]

I tried out a place who's brand was making classic beers with a new twist.

That new twist was heavily dry hopped with NZ hops, and maybe some lactose or a fruit flavor.

I was a sad panda.

Soon as I saw "new twist" I'd run away fast.

 

[JohnDBrewer]

In terms of hobbies, all hobbies seem to be falling off. My wife quilts, my car club, etc., are all falling off. This goes for the homebrew and other hobbie stores.

On the brewey side, this is a typical business cycle. Maybe a bit distorted because COVID, but still typical. It's overbuilt, a bunch will fall out, consolidation is happening and the market will find equilibrium. I also think folks are holding on to their cash a bit harder, so $6+ pints are not helping demand. Now it comes down to business skills and some luck for a lot of these breweries and the homebrew shops that are left. If there is a favorite brewery or homebrew shop you like, vote with your money. Focus your cash on your favorites.

 

[user 348755]

I think it's a healthy market development. The times are over when one could excite the whole town with a very hot IPA or hazy. It's nice to have a good IPA but the market does not need twenty of them, from which the half is probably poorly executed.

People want quality. Coors and bud is high quality stuff, that's why they are selling. Granted, the specific type of beer might be too bland for some, but within the realm of light lager, their stuff is high quality.

The breweries that will produce high quality and also balanced brews as their staples, will win. Not too much into the extremes. Obviously for the same of our there can be special editions or seasonal brews or whatnot, but the core moneymakers should be balanced stuff that is of high quality. This sells and I want to drink that . I don't want twenty hasty iPas. I want a bitter, a IPA, a session apa and maybe a saison. Not high abv. Normal saison.

Maybe the people are scared of brewing normal brews because it's easy to see when they mess them up.

There is something to this and what I have been trying to say is that I think the downturn is largely due to bad beers or beers that are not true to style. Anecdotal again, but many of the long term beer drinkers I know, even the ones that have worked in the industry are going back to the macros because at least they know what to expect when they buy those products. Nothing worse than playing roulette in a market where many breweries don't even try to brew to style.

 

[user 348755]

What no one wants to say (but some have already and I'll point it out again):

Of those 9922 breweries, about half of them produce only 10+ variations on IPAs or slushies or sours, and maybe 1 or 2 crappy "lagers". No other styles.

I hope those places die first, dammit.

I'm all for bad brewers with no respect for tradition, going under. I think i could have avoided all this by placing an question mark at the end of my post title.

 

[mac_1103]

I think the downturn is largely due to bad beers or beers that are not true to style. Anecdotal again, but many of the long term beer drinkers I know, even the ones that have worked in the industry are going back to the macros because at least they know what to expect when they buy those products. Nothing worse than playing roulette in a market where many breweries don't even try to brew to style.

I think we need to understand and accept that we are not typical beer drinkers, and therefore not the demographic that most brewers are targeting. The overwhelming majority of customers in any given brewpub on any given day don't know a damned thing about what is true to style beyond light lager and maybe IPA. They read the descriptions and decide if they think a brew is something that they'd like to try. Then that beer becomes representative of the style for them. If they like it they might try one again at another place some day. If they hate it they'll never touch anything with a similar name again. If they have too many consecutive bad experiences, they'll just give up on craft beer altogether.

 

[worlddivides]

What no one wants to say (but some have already and I'll point it out again):

Of those 9922 breweries, about half of them produce only 10+ variations on IPAs or slushies or sours, and maybe 1 or 2 crappy "lagers". No other styles.

I hope those places die first, dammit.

You say that, but those are what sells.

And I'm not saying that to be like "that's all that they should make."

My favorite style of beer is sours, the sourer the better. My favorite sub-category is probably Gueuze, and my favorite Belgian brewery is probably Cantillon. But that's not a recipe for success for the vast majority of breweries.

I actually went to 3 different craft beer taprooms tonight, and all three were super crowded. All three were mostly IPAs and lagers, though the first place had a fruit weizen and the third place I went to had two barleywines (but everything else was IPAs - and the IPAs were amazing too, so I'm not bashing them for that).

But one of my favorite craft beer places has 30 taps. They generally only have about 20 of them used and typically only use all 30 for events, but even if 20 or 30 are open, they might have 1 stout or porter on tap. And I find that sad, but it's just a reflection of them putting what sells on tap. They recently started putting tape over each tap that says when the keg was put in. And guess what, the main lager was put in yesterday and the traditional sour was put in 2 months ago. This West Coast IPA was put in 2 days ago, this hazy IPA was put in yesterday, and this experimental saison was put in 1 and a half months ago.

 

[VTMongoose]

I believe overnutrition is contributing to the younger generation's reduced interest in beer. Human beings for millenia didn't just rely on beer as a source of sanitary water but as a source of literal energy as well. One of the main reasons alcoholics perish is actually malnutrition as alcohol replaces food as their primary source of energy and the oxidative burden outstrips the body's ability to regenerate protein and antioxidants like glutathione due to a literal lack of circulating precursors/nutrients, and alcohol-seeking sadly becomes tied to the body's desire for energy and alcoholics are genetically prone to this interplay.

Overweight-obesity is at all time highs right now and people have little need for more energy. The powerful new class of drug, GLP-1 agonists, has been shown to markedly reduce alcohol use through its amplification of incretins. This confirms that the reward sensation of alcohol is tied to its calorific content. Beer has the highest number of calories and carbohydrates per unit of alcohol of any type of conventionally produced fermented alcoholic beverage, while spirits and seltzers have the least. To me, it makes logical sense.

Not only that, the absence of carbohydrates and dissolved proteins in said beverages increases the speed at which they can be assimilated, compared to beer, where carbohydrates, in the context of someone in a carbohydrate/caloric surplus, possibly with a bit of diabetes and insulin resistance, delay gastric emptying.

 

[FloppyKnockers]

I believe overnutrition is contributing to the younger generation's reduced interest in beer. Human beings for millenia didn't just rely on beer as a source of sanitary water but as a source of literal energy as well. One of the main reasons alcoholics perish is actually malnutrition as alcohol replaces food as their primary source of energy and the oxidative burden outstrips the body's ability to regenerate protein and antioxidants like glutathione due to a literal lack of circulating precursors/nutrients, and alcohol-seeking sadly becomes tied to the body's desire for energy and alcoholics are genetically prone to this interplay.

Overweight-obesity is at all time highs right now and people have little need for more energy. The powerful new class of drug, GLP-1 agonists, has been shown to markedly reduce alcohol use through its amplification of incretins. This confirms that the reward sensation of alcohol is tied to its calorific content. Beer has the highest number of calories and carbohydrates per unit of alcohol of any type of conventionally produced fermented alcoholic beverage, while spirits and seltzers have the least. To me, it makes logical sense.

Not only that, the absence of carbohydrates and dissolved proteins in said beverages increases the speed at which they can be assimilated, compared to beer, where carbohydrates, in the context of someone in a carbohydrate/caloric surplus, possibly with a bit of diabetes and insulin resistance, delay gastric emptying.

Plus, beer doesn't have a lot vitamins in it. That's why you have to drink so much of it.
#science

 

[lumpher]

I think the perception that it's a dying art is that in the past, it was a fad. Many people were jumping on the bandwagon. We continually get new recruits, but so many people stop because of lack of dedication, money, time, etc. I think the number of homebrewers has somewhat stabilized to those of us that enjoy it. Sure, there is fluctuation, and very few LHBS's are still around, but that's merely because of convenience of online, or with people like me, we have moved too remote to be within 3 hours on an LHBS . Too easy to order online and have it dropped at my door...

 

[Jim R]

I also think folks are holding on to their cash a bit harder, so $6+ pints are not helping demand.

It is often $7-$10 pints and then the server flips the iPad around asking for a 18%, 20% or 22% tip for their 30 second pouring time. Most people can't afford to drink.

 

[tenordrummer4life]

It is often $7-$10 pints and then the server flips the iPad around asking for a 18%, 20% or 22% tip for their 30 second pouring time. Most people can't afford to drink.

It's for this reason alone that I got into homebrewing. Even when you go to the store, $10-20 for a quality craft 6-pack is much less enticing than $25ish for a case of beer that you made at home. That, plus the added incentive of having a slow, creative activity away from electronics and social media, has kept me going for 3 years now.

 

[MaxStout]

It is often $7-$10 pints and then the server flips the iPad around asking for a 18%, 20% or 22% tip for their 30 second pouring time. Most people can't afford to drink.

And then you get to enjoy that $10 beer while sitting on a metal stool next to an old barrel. And if you're hungry, you can step out in the rain to get a $15 cheeseburger and $8 side of fries from the food truck. And the food truck person will flip the tablet around for a tip of 18/20/22%.

Yeah, I'm crotchety today...

 

[mac_1103]

None of that is unique to breweries or brewpubs or craft beer. If the price of a pint and a snack is too much to bear then I imagine that you all feel the same way about wineries and cideries, not to mention going out for cocktails and a nice dinner. Although I suppose that wineries and cideries at least have the advantage of being at vineyards and orchards.

 

[FloppyKnockers]

7 dollar pints and a buck tip can easily be made up by stealing the glass, asking for a taste of this and that and this again, then pocketing all the paper coasters and napkins. I went out last night for a pint and I'm up $4.

 

[MaxStout]

7 dollar pints and a buck tip can easily be made up by stealing the glass, asking for a taste of this and that and this again, then pocketing all the paper coasters and napkins. I went out last night for a pint and I'm up $4.

Grab the neon sign on the way out. You can get ~$200 for those on Craigslist

 

[mac_1103]

7 dollar pints and a buck tip can easily be made up by stealing the glass, asking for a taste of this and that and this again, then pocketing all the paper coasters and napkins. I went out last night for a pint and I'm up $4.

I am intrigued by your ideas and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

 

[govner1]

Craft beer is declining. Homebrewing is dying. The macros are gaining market share while small breweries are closing. Everytime someone brings this up, there's alwasy somebody around to point out that this isn't true. But when compared to it's heyday, craft is on a major decline.

In my area, three micros closed their doors in the last year and the two closest to me are hurting and have too much debt. The largest homebrew shop near me has closed after 20 years of service at that location and another big one only opens once a week and has been sold and moved to another area.

The kids aren't drinking as much, the adults are sick of weird beers and are going back to BMC and the only thing on the shelves is an endless selection of terrible IPAs.

I don't care if this gets heat, I know a lot of people don't like to talk about it, but when an industry that was started by your local HBS largely only exists online, it's bad. There are any factors, but I think the major one is that most micros simply don't make good beer. It was enough when the market was growing and people were experimenting and willing to try anything, but these days, your roasted coffee oatmeal sour milk stout isn't going to pay the bills. I think a lot of people are being alienated by brewers with an endless appetite for innovation and wonky creativity and almost no regards for traditional processes, balance and quality control. I went on a mini beer pilgrimage not too long ago and of about 15 different styles of beer I drank, I remember only 3 or 4 that were well balanced, well elaborated and didn't suffer from some sort of defect. Unfortunately, I don't think this is going to change any time soon when brewers seem to take more pride in pushing every convention to it's limit more than they take pride in selling a second serving of the same beer.

Anyway, rant over. I'll go back into hiding for now.

You sound like Randy Quaid’s character in Major League 2. All gloom and doom!
Yes, any business has its risks. Especially those that have poor or no business plan and are under funded.
We’ve lost several small and medium craft breweries in my area (metro Atlanta) but many are thriving and many new ones have started. If you have a good plan, product and money you can thrive.

 

[Bobby_M]

and what I have been trying to say is that I think the downturn is largely due to bad beers or beers that are not true to style.

I'm not sure this is even one of the top 10 drivers for the craft downturn. What I think you're suggesting is that if "some" of the breweries are making bad beer or butchering a style, a good portion of otherwise ambitious consumers will get tired of looking for a brewery that makes better beer or beer truer to style and because of that exhaustion, they give up on craft breweries altogether. If I'm wrong correct me.

The reason why I reject the claim is that product quality variation is to be expected in any market for any product. People are used to it. Restaurants are probably the easiest analog. I've had a terrible meal at a place that looked like it wouldn't be terrible. It never made me stop eating at restaurants on occasion. I just write a bad google review and try a new place until I find one that delivers the goods.

At the topmost level, supply is significantly outweighing demand and bad brewers and bad businesspeople are suffering the first round of losses as expected. In some rare cases, bad beer is surviving in some local markets due to other factors like lack of alternative social gathering spaces or whatever it may be.

I mean, this isn't a mystery.. Here's another loose chart I drew, not exactly to scale but based on data found for each vector.. Demand really isn't down that much. You can see there is a definite inverse crossover between beer and MJ so you can say that demand for intoxicants is about flat but breweries overbuilt at much bigger rate than demand. In other words, even if breweries served beer AND cannabis, they'd still be going out of business.

What aspiring brewery owners really didn't think hard enough about is that for any given beer market in their city, the first brewery is killing it because they have 100% of the business. The next guy is going to share it, maybe 50/50 or better or worse. Now we're into the 4-5 breweries in any given drivable radius. I still have homebrew customers in my store talking about opening a brewing soon. The question I always have is, "what is your plan to grab a significant portion of the local market share away from all the other breweries that have been established?" The truth is, the incumbents had practice during the boom and they're already dabbling in pivoting during the bust (but with previous cash flow to buffer stupid mistakes). How is the startup going to make major moves?

 

[MaxStout]

Another analogue: Bad music has been a big part of the playlists of commercial radio stations for decades. Certainly some good music has also found its way onto the airwaves, but a lot of the pop music that makes the cut is vapid dreck that's like empty calories. Yet millions of people still listen to it, enjoy it and buy the music.

 

[Flushot22]

Its the natural ebb and flow of a business boom. Everyone and their brother opened a brewery/brewpub/bruhaus etc. over the last 15 years. The good ones who deserve to stay open with the least bit of business savvy, generally will. The acquisitions by macro beer will make room for new craft breweries, but they will have to be good.

As for LHBS closures, There is probably some retraction from the COVID boom causing a ton of people to get rid of their HB equipment on FB marketplace and craigslist now that they don't have as much time and have to show back up to those jobs again. All these second hand sales of equipment can't be great for LHBS's. Not to mention the boom of the all in one BIAB electric units that can be purchased straight from the manufacturers website. Who needs to go to a LHBS to buy a 10gal kettle, a propane burner, or a converted igloo cooler?
I think that a lot of it also has to do with grain, yeast, and hop availability online as well.
It sucks because I love my LHBS and I hope they weather this storm, but I'm ashamed to say that the only things I ever get there anymore is CO2 bottle exchanges, pre-milled grain, and yeast.

 

[Pennine]

Another analogue: Bad music has been a big part of the playlists of commercial radio stations for decades. Certainly some good music has also found its way onto the airwaves, but a lot of the pop music that makes the cut is vapid dreck that's like empty calories. Yet millions of people still listen to it, enjoy it and buy the music.

I've considered becoming a marketing consultant for companies. My pitch would be if you make something I like, it's 99% likely the rest of your market won't. And if I really don't like it, chances are it'll be big.

 

[MaxStout]

I would never join a club that would have me as a member.

 

[shnth]

The current beer landscape in australia is pretty sad. 15 or so years ago the lineup of breweries' beers were far more in he way of classic styles. golden ale, wheat beer, amber ale and the like. now i feel like most breweries just stick to ****** hoppy beers and ipas and weak sours which i have no interest in these days. the government is squeezing the life out of smaller brewers with tax, and the japanese beverage overlords have basically acquired every major brand in the country and they are of course very difficult to compete with. many have either closed or gone into some form of liquidation/receivership in the last few years. it's become super expensive to make beer, and it's become insanely expensive to buy it as a consumer. but i guess that's what happens when you put all your eggs in the one basket and produce ipas and **** sours for the most part

 

[Bramling Cross]

IMO, the craft beer boom/bubble permitted mediocre breweries to exist.

This.

I'm old, so this isn't the first time that I've seen homebrewing and micro brewing die. From time to time the normies get interested in what we're doing, then they get frustrated by the fact that brewing is hard, their beers suck, effort is required, and they go away.

Meanwhile, the freaks like us carry on.

One thing worries me, however. In the US there's a glut of malt that has nowhere to go, yet sacks of malt keep getting ever more expensive. Clearly, something has changed that defies the normal laws of supply and demand and this worries me. Morebeer's dominant and enshitifying role in the online sales space is something that I will not tolerate. I made a decision last year that I'm done with them. Frankly, I think they're bad for the hobby.

 

[Bramling Cross]

I would never join a club that would have me as a member.

No self respecting club would ever ask me to join, so I'd gladly join a club that asked me to join.

 

[Dland]

While this has been an amusing conversation to read, I've seen it before and it does not much matter to me.

The reason I'm here is 'cause I make my own beer.

The way I like it and mostly better than I can buy it.

Styles, trends and demographics be damned. [;

I guess if things were to go so far downhill I could not buy good malted barley, it would be a problem, but I don't think we're close to that as of yet.

 

[MaxStout]

This.

I'm old, so this isn't the first time that I've seen homebrewing and micro brewing die. From time to time the normies get interested in what we're doing, then they get frustrated by the fact that brewing is hard, their beers suck, effort is required, and they go away.

Meanwhile, the freaks like us carry on.

One thing worries me, however. In the US there's a glut of malt that has nowhere to go, yet sacks of malt keep getting ever more expensive. Clearly, something has changed that defies the normal laws of supply and demand and this worries me. Morebeer's dominant and enshitifying role in the online sales space is something that I will not tolerate. I made a decision last year that I'm done with them. Frankly, I think they're bad for the hobby.

Probably transport costs keeping malt sack prices way up there.

 

[Bramling Cross]

Probably transport costs keeping malt sack prices way up there.

I agree. That should be the case, but what I don't get is why a glut of domestic malt is quickly narrowing the gap in terms of cost with a post-Brexit sack of Otter, or German malt. All malt is getting more expensive, which is reasonable given the externalities in play in the market, by why is domestic malt outstripping the imported malts?

And then there's corn, that makes no sense whatsoever. The US economy is, in large part, built upon cheap and ubiquitous corn. We grow so much of the crap that we've passed laws mandating that the surplus crop must be turned into less energy dense, more expensive, ethanol to be burned in our cars. Why is the cost of corn suddenly rivaling the cost of imported malt?

 

[MaxStout]

I agree. That should be the case, but what I don't get is why a glut of domestic malt is quickly narrowing the gap in terms of cost with a post-Brexit sack of Otter, or German malt. All malt is getting more expensive, which is reasonable given the externalities in play in the market, by why is domestic malt outstripping the imported malts?

And then there's corn, that makes no sense whatsoever. The US economy is, in large part, built upon cheap and ubiquitous corn. We grow so much of the crap that we've passed laws mandating that the surplus crop must be turned into less energy dense, more expensive, ethanol to be burned in our cars. Why is the cost of corn suddenly rivaling the cost of imported malt?

I'm going to guess the farmers aren't rolling in $$ from these higher prices. Middlemen.

Haven't seen @grampamark around here in a while (he's recuperating), but he'd probably have a good explanation of what's going on, being a grain producer.

 

[Bramling Cross]

I'm going to guess the farmers aren't rolling in $$ from these higher prices. Middlemen.

You can throw me on the rack, break my bones, shove a hot poker up me bum and you couldn't get me to agree more. Hence my suggestion that the enshitification of Morebeer is playing a role in this. Granted, there are other factors at play, but when it's cheaper to blow an 1/8th of a tank of gas to drive up to Baltimore to buy malt from an LHBS than order from MoreBeer, there's a problem.

You're 100% right about the farmers. They've been taking it where the sun doesn't shine for several years and barley farms are selling out because of it. There's no money in it right now because there's such an oversupply...but the cost of a sack is up twenty bucks.

Yup, price gouging middlemen, the bane of people that actually work for a living.

 

[user 348755]

Its the natural ebb and flow of a business boom. Everyone and their brother opened a brewery/brewpub/bruhaus etc. over the last 15 years. The good ones who deserve to stay open with the least bit of business savvy, generally will. The acquisitions by macro beer will make room for new craft breweries, but they will have to be good.

As for LHBS closures, There is probably some retraction from the COVID boom causing a ton of people to get rid of their HB equipment on FB marketplace and craigslist now that they don't have as much time and have to show back up to those jobs again. All these second hand sales of equipment can't be great for LHBS's. Not to mention the boom of the all in one BIAB electric units that can be purchased straight from the manufacturers website. Who needs to go to a LHBS to buy a 10gal kettle, a propane burner, or a converted igloo cooler?
I think that a lot of it also has to do with grain, yeast, and hop availability online as well.
It sucks because I love my LHBS and I hope they weather this storm, but I'm ashamed to say that the only things I ever get there anymore is CO2 bottle exchanges, pre-milled grain, and yeast.

I'm glad we are talking about market forces rather than denying it's even happening. I'm not sure i agree that covid had anything to do with LHBSs closing since most of these businesses predated covid by decades and were mostly profitable until recently. In any case, there's a lot of good points in this thread from people with a lot of insight and what everyone seems to be describing, even if not explicitly, is a major contraction and consolidation in the market and a change in consumer habits. This might be affecting all industries but it is definitely having a huge impact on the homebrew and craft markets and in such a way that stats and sales numbers can't explain. In much the same way that GDP is often cited as a marker of a thriving economy even while overall poverty grows, stats can't make me unsee that half the breweries and half the LHBSs in my local area have closed.