The hop shortage

[ohiobrewtus]

This topic has been really beaten to death here of late. My opinion is that while the shortage will increase the prices that we have to pay for hops, resorting to things like chamomile, yarrow, and heather are greatly overexaggerating the situation.

I brew to make good beer. If I have to spend an extra $2-4 to get the hops I want, it's money well spent.

 

[Evan!]

freshops says the same thing on their site, and links to a page that talks about various herbs and spices that can be used.

Personally, I'm with brewtus. Hops would either have to reach like $6/oz or more before I'd even consider using herbs and spices in their place. And even then...

If you wanna get experimental, fine...but I wouldn't switch from centennial to rosemary just because hops are a few extra cents an ounce.

 

[abracadabra]

I agree with both the previous posts thank goodness I'm not a hop head but this is all about inflating the price. Everything is going up, gold $800 an oz. Oil $100 a barrel. But than goodness the govt sez inflation is under control or I'd be worried.

 

[adamk222]

2 oz german spaltz
2 oz german tettnang
2 oz uk fuggle
2 oz us perle
2 oz amarillo
1 oz galena
2 oz cascade
2 oz willamette
1 oz us fuggles
2 ozuk kent goldings-picking up 8 more ozs
2 oz uk progress
3 oz uk wgv-going to buy all i can from my local hbs
5 oz uk phoenix
1 oz czech sazz
3 oz chinook
3 oz styrian goldings
7 oz german hallertau
16 oz Santiam-ive havent used it yet but have high hopes

 

[RichM1964]

New poster here, but I thought I'd add my thoughts.

I manage a small homebrew supply shop for Ice Harbor Brewing, and what I'm hearing doesn't make me happy (I'm in the middle of re-pricing my current hop inventory as I type this...)

FWIW, I too have heard that the 2006 crop is gone, and what suppliers/distributors have in stock is about it until Late November/December, when the leaf varieties of the 2007 hop crop come in. 2007 Pellets aren't expected to be WIDELY available until the middle of December.

As for availability, I'd direct you to this letter on the Brewer's Supply Group website; it explains things very well, and very starkly. I've been unable to get Cascade pellets for more than 10 weeks now; Liberty, Hallertaur, and Willamette are also difficult to come by. It would appear that both the 2007 and 2008 crops are pretty much gone to existing contracts, so anyone hoping to find MORE available is PROBABLY going to be out of luck. There will be supplies, but...

I haven't had the problem yet, but I've noticed that my suppliers are limiting hop purchases - some to a % of the total order, some by variety and total weight. To give you an idea, our brewers were paying in the vicinity of $4-$5/lb. for Cascades in 2007; the 2008 price (2007 crop) s almost $12/lb; local breweries have spent over$20/lb on the spot market in the past 8 weeks or so - if they can find them.

And lo! I happened into a small amount of Cascade pellets - and they're costing ME the rough equivalent of $18-$20/lb.

It does seem that hop growers are optimistic about the supply of "Lesser-used" varieties - Amarillo, Cluster, Crystal, Horizon, etc., so those may be available next year at reasonable prices. On the other hand, if people start going for those en masse to replace their standard hops, expect availability to drop and prices to rise.

With apologies to Charlie Papazian, What I've been telling my local homebrewers is that 2008 will be the year to relax, EXPERIMENT, and have a homebrew!

Hope this helps folks out!
Rich

 

[DontDrinkAndDrum]

To me the solution will lie in the free market. As long as there is a demand for beer and that demand is high enough nothing will stop the machine. Unfortunately I don't see demand increasing overall considering the rapidly aging population and challenging dietary demands.

...true, but on the same token, I really don't think the demand for beer will go down if at all. I mean, it's been around for centuries, so unless those dorks up on capitol hill make it illegal again, I don't think it's going anywhere anytime soon...at least I hope not.

 

[EdWort]

A little stroll down memory lane from the Summer of 2006 in the Hallertau region of Germany.

Enjoy!

 

[The Drizzle]

A little stroll down memory lane from the Summer of 2006 in the Hallertau region of Germany.

Enjoy!

man, that reminds me of my trip to germany this last summer. i want to go back right this instant

 

[flyboy]

I talked to some of thw brewmasters at brewers commection and was told that the price may go up to $3. I'm not a hophead so that's not a problem to me. If the cost gets too high, I might experiment in growing my own hops. Still, not being into hops, I'll most likely wind up with too much hops.

 

[abracadabra]

FWIW here's my 2 Cents

What free market?

When sugar cane (the better alternative to corn) is subsidised by price supports and corn takes 7 gal. of oil to yield an 8 gal. equivelent and is also subsidised and has a govt. mandated % use. Just what free market is being refered to? This is another big handout to millionaire farmers at the expense of both the taxpayer and consumer.

I agree with another poster that pointed out hops is only the beginning. Grain prices are going to have to skyrocket to compete with corn which has doubled in price.

So if your a taxpayer and consumer you'll pay for this 2X both at tax time and in the so called "free market".

But thank goodness and the US govt. that inflation is under control and the ecomony is doing great.

I plan to grow my own hops and I'll look to find other brewers in my area interested in bulk grain purchases.

 

[RoaringBrewer]

Personally, I'm with brewtus. Hops would either have to reach like $6/oz or more before I'd even consider using herbs and spices in their place. And even then...

+ One Million. I'm with these guys...

Some hop varieties may be unavailable until next year (from homebrewshops - sure for the right amount of $ you can buy anything though) and others may cost an extra buck per ounce.

It's not the end of the world...

 

[cubbies]

It's been said already, but I am gong to reiterate. There is no reason (at least not yet) to be going that route. If you want to experiement for the fun of it, then go ahead, but you shouldnt be doing it because of a hop shortage. Most hops at Austin Homebrew were around 1.39-1.69 and now are 1.99. Really not that big of a deal. And it is the same at other brewstores too. Yes, some styles are going to be out of stock. That is the way it is going to be for a little while. But there are some very good hops still available. No Amarillo, try Columbus. No Hallertua, try Spalt. the list goes on and on. You never know, you may end up liking one more than the one you were originally trying to use. As a matter of fact, Columbus is probably my favorite high AA hop. If you need a high AA hop, I would definitely recommend this hop.

 

[Cheesefood]

The good news is that there's really no difference in hops. They all taste just about the same.

 

[the_bird]

The good news is that there's really no difference in hops. They all taste just about the same.

Vanilla extract, on the other hand - you've got to be REAL careful how you source that stuff!

 

[Seabee John]

A little stroll down memory lane from the Summer of 2006 in the Hallertau region of Germany.

Enjoy!

I plan to grow my own hops and I'll look to find other brewers in my area interested in bulk grain purchases.

ED, I know you grow your own (hops that is) and I was wondering where and how can a guy get the materials to grow his own hops?... I've seen plenty of advice on how it's done here (including your post on a Texas Hop Garden) Anyway I see hop seeds on ebay from time to time but who knows what species they are... where do I go to get what I need and how do I know it's the right stuff?

 

[Seabee John]

Ah.. Um.. http://www.freshops.com/garden.html

Got it.

 

[gonzoflick]

Heres what I just picked up at my LHBS and what I paid. It was expensive, but I should be set for at least a few months all hops are pellets

4oz Cascade $6.40
4oz Kent Goldings $6.40
4oz Centennial $6.40
3oz Hallertauer $4.80
2oz Willamette $3.20
2oz Saaz $3.20
3oz Chinook $4.80
1oz Mt. Hood $1.60
3oz Northern Brewer $4.80
4oz Fuggles $6.40
3oz Columbus $4.80
1oz Amarillo $2.40
1oz Magnum $2.40

Total spent $57.60 Hope to make some good beer though

 

[Hopleaf]

I bought half a pound of Cascade today for $3/oz...

wish I bought a bunch more earlier in the year

LHBS said they'd prolly run out in Feb.

 

[gonzoflick]

$3/oz OUCH. thats $48/lb Jesus man I hope that was a typo

 

[jezter6]

Nope. I picked up pellets as my LHBS last night at $2.99/oz pellets.

 

[gonzoflick]

Freshops is at $1.60/oz. Why are you all paying $3? Just for convenience and no shipping charges?

 

[Cheesefood]

Nope. I picked up pellets as my LHBS last night at $2.99/oz pellets.

I've got $2.50 ounces of Cascade whole leafs I'll sell you all day long. If you need Hallertau, I can do $3.00 per ounce with shipping included.

 

[jezter6]

I've got $2.50 ounces of Cascade whole leafs I'll sell you all day long. If you need Hallertau, I can do $3.00 per ounce with shipping included.

Heh, let the profiteering commence!!

I didn't really realize it until I got home and wondered why my bill was $36 for a 1.072 recipe. I looked that the receipt and went 'WOWZA!'

I got it for a recipe I'm brewing tomorrow and didn't think to buy online because I support my LHBS with as much as I can afford to so he can stay in business.

I see some stuff cheaper, and I'm working on it now for the next month or two of brews. However, my standard hops list is Fugs, EKGs, Hallertauer, and Tettnanger. Sadly, those are some hard to find varieties.

I don't care much for the high alpha stuff anyways, so not being able to find the 8% and up hops doesn't hurt me too bad. I just like my german and irish ales.

 

[adamk222]

Heh, let the profiteering commence!!

I didn't really realize it until I got home and wondered why my bill was $36 for a 1.072 recipe. I looked that the receipt and went 'WOWZA!'

I got it for a recipe I'm brewing tomorrow and didn't think to buy online because I support my LHBS with as much as I can afford to so he can stay in business.

I see some stuff cheaper, and I'm working on it now for the next month or two of brews. However, my standard hops list is Fugs, EKGs, Hallertauer, and Tettnanger. Sadly, those are some hard to find varieties.

I don't care much for the high alpha stuff anyways, so not being able to find the 8% and up hops doesn't hurt me too bad. I just like my german and irish ales.

santiam is in stock at more beer and is almost identical to tettnanger

 

[McCall St. Brewer]

I'm a bit confused about this whole hop shortage deal.

Here's what I think I know:

1. Hops were over-abundant for a number of years so growers have decided to produce less.
2. 2007 was a bad year for growing hops and some crops were actually destroyed by weather.
3. Most online homebrew suppliers seem to be out of many popular varieties (particularly Cascade, Centennial, Hallertaur) and have raised prices substantially on the varieties they still have.
4. The outlook for hop supplies for the next two years looks terrible.

Here is what I don't know:

Other than that growers are producing less and weather destroyed some crops, how did things get so bad so quickly? If prices stay high will growers increase their acreage so that this becomes a temporary shortage?

 

[the_bird]

What I'm not sure of is how much the current shortages is simply magnified by being essentially between seasons. Like, come a month's time, when all the '07 crop is for sale, will many of these varities be available again, albeit at a higher cost? I never paid enough attention last year to know whether there's a natural seasonal element at work, which may be magnifying the fundamental problems in the hop sector.

 

[-Dan-]

3. Most online homebrew suppliers seem to be out of many popular varieties (particularly Cascade, Centennial, Hallertaur) and have raised prices substantially on the varieties they still have.

100% ACK! I just wanted to order gain and hops and was "fairly" shocked about the prices compared to those about 1 1/2 months ago. I'm not even talking about the 2007 harvest yet.

 

[Cheesefood]

I'm a bit confused about this whole hop shortage deal.

Here is what I don't know:

Other than that growers are producing less and weather destroyed some crops, how did things get so bad so quickly? If prices stay high will growers increase their acreage so that this becomes a temporary shortage?

Things got so bad because corn prices are so good. Ethanol is way raising up the demand for corn. Where my inlaws live, land that went for $2,000 per acrea a few years ago is going over $5k per acre now. Grain and Hops growers stand to make a s-load more by growing corn.

The big breweries own their hop farms so they won't care too much about the commodity hops market. It's the little guys who depend on farmers producing hops that will worry the most.

Also, there was a big warehouse fire last year that pwned the hops supply.

 

[Beerthoven]

What I'm not sure of is how much the current shortages is simply magnified by being essentially between seasons. Like, come a month's time, when all the '07 crop is for sale, will many of these varities be available again, albeit at a higher cost? I never paid enough attention last year to know whether there's a natural seasonal element at work, which may be magnifying the fundamental problems in the hop sector.

I was thinking the same thing.

In a month or two we'll see greater availability but at higher prices, right?

 

[the_bird]

I was thinking the same thing.

In a month or two, we'll see greater availability but at higher prices, right?

I think so... my impression has been that prices have been historically really low because they WAS a glut that's just now really being worked off, so the overall price level should be higher. But, the specific unavailability of hops pretty much across the board at the major suppliers; I suspect that will not be the case in a months' time, although certain varieties will not be available (probably pre-committed to major breweries). It sounds like NB, at least, will be actively bringing in different types of hops as quasi-replacements. So, you might not be able to brew an Amarillo-pale ale, but there should be something else available to experiment with.