The craft beer bubble is busting.

[kh54s10]

I've seen this kind of thing a lot on HBT, and frankly it surprises me. Some people will say they don't pay attention to water and their beers are fine, but don't realize they got lucky.

That's why I bolded and emphasized the "IF" above. You have to make assumptions for the "water doesn't matter much" argument to hold.

You might be lucky with your water, but it's only that. Luck. To anyone who says water isn't important, I say to them: Try brewing with my tap water and then see what happens.

On the other end of the scale, there is the gut reaction that any problem gets attributed to water. I have used tap water in RI, the one I said was considered the best tasting in the area. I have used distilled with adjustments. That did not make a significant difference. I have used FL water. It doesn't seem to give me consistently as good results as the RI water. But the beers are very good. I will at some point get an analysis and make some adjustments.

Maybe your tap water is an UNLUCKY thing. Maybe the majority of municipal water is OK?? I don't know.

But the knee jerk reaction to a problem.. What is your water??? It may or may not be relevant....

IMO the idea that to make good beer you have to adjust water chemistry is overblown.

 

[bleme]

Our water does relatively well in the amber/brown ale realm but calcium is on the low end. Paler usually needs treatment/acid, and darker can need a touch of alkalinity sometimes (especially if adding enough calcium to the water).

You're not gonna brew a great Pilsner and a great Imperial Stout with the same untreated water. Full stop.

True. I'm an Ale-Only guy though!

 

[HTH1975]

In the two breweries I’ve worked at, we tested for alkalinity each brewday and made adjustments to the water treatment when required.

 

[LostHopper]

I don't know the ins and outs of commercial brewing, but wonder how many take the time to measure and adjust? It may be most of them, but my guess is that most might do that in their test batches then make any adjustments as ingredients in the recipe. Maybe double check a couple times a year.

I find that MOST commercial craft beer is mediocre. There are a few popular breweries where I have tried a lot of their beers and was totally unimpressed. Then I tried another of their beers and said WOW! And there are a few where I have yet to find one that is any better than my average homebrew.

Again, I don't know what is involved in water adjustments on a commercial scale, but it may come down to profit and loss. If it costs more to analyse and adjust, than it is worth, then adjusting is not a good idea.

Again, you may just be misinterpreting the "alien look"

I toured the Sierra Nevada brewery in NC. One of their stories about opening the new location across the country is all the work that went into getting the Mills River (NC) water to match EXACTLY with the Chico (CA) water. The beers had to taste the same regardless of location. They started with the pale ale and if I remember correctly, some batches were dumped before getting things perfect. The brewers had Ken Grossman make the final decision.

 

[day_trippr]

Jeeze, if one doesn't want to bother with a potential improvement of their product that's fine with me, but thumping one's chest about it seems like a search for assurance...

Cheers!

 

[50calshooter]

According to an article in Vinepair the stats released by the Brewers Association said, "We are still seeing
openings outpace closings by about 5 to 1. There are 7,346 craft breweries in the U.S. with an estimated 1,049 openings and 219 closings last year."

I'm thinking bad business practices or bad beer being made is the reason your local placed closed. Not because of some bubble popping.

 

[kh54s10]

I toured the Sierra Nevada brewery in NC. One of their stories about opening the new location across the country is all the work that went into getting the Mills River (NC) water to match EXACTLY with the Chico (CA) water. The beers had to taste the same regardless of location. They started with the pale ale and if I remember correctly, some batches were dumped before getting things perfect. The brewers had Ken Grossman make the final decision.

Do they still test and treat every batch individually??

 

[Dgallo]

The value consumers place on craft beer is a ridiculous illusion. Why does "craft beer" or beer in general, earn such a high markup over production costs?
Some breweries I've visited have pretty mediocre beer. Add to that the going rate of $5-$6 or more for a glass of beer and I wonder how some of them stay in business.
The answer is people like going out instead of drinking at home, so they are willing to fork over the cash for a brew that isn't as good as PBR.
At some point, Mega brewers will get tired of losing market share and will drop the retail 6 pack price of their IPAs and other "craft" brews, in order to put competitive pressure on the regional and local brewers. National brands like Sam Adams and SN will have no choice, either compete on price or lose sales volume. When all that happens, and the drinking public realizes that "craft beer" isn't worth $6 at the pub,
the bubble will burst. Its not happening any time soon. Mega brew is able to offer a good looking balance sheet to their investors for now, so they aren't changing anything.

You must not understand the cost of running a business at all if you think 5 and 6 dollar cost are extreme mark up....... ingredients themselves for a 16 oz of a 7%+ stout or ipa are almost a $.50-.75 a pour. Now factor in electric and fuel cost. Also mortgage or rent. Municipalities. Employees. Insurance. So it’s not much Mark up at all. Plus they sell kegs at an even lower price per oz. the pint is what keeps breweries alive dude. And they have to sell a sh!t ton to truly profit.

 

[kh54s10]

^^ Right^^

I wonder where people are seeing such a discrepancy between BMC beers and Craft beers at pubs. I haven't really looked, because I won't order a BMC beer out at a pub when even a mediocre craft beer is better but the difference is not that great. Those that think that craft beers are overpriced by comparing them to beers from BMC breweries must remember that the BMC breweries are brewing massive amounts of beer thus they can afford to charge less per pour/bottle/can... and still cover the costs that Dgallo listed.

 

[Qhrumphf]

Those costs are way way high. Hell brewing big big beers, raw ingredients shouldn't push you to those numbers. You should be able to do a 10%+ 5lb/bbl DDH NE DIPA for .40c per pint or your doing it wrong.

0.10-0.20c/pint is more reasonable.

With those numbers above no one could distro.

Now overhead, labor, utiliites, and of course distributor pricing, it gets a lot harder. The one accurate part, taproom pints pay the bills.

 

[bob1852]

If you wanna make a million dollars running a brewery, start with 3 million...

 

[Hwk-I-St8]

If you wanna make a million dollars running a brewery, start with 3 million...

33% ROI...not bad. Is that per year? if so, sign me up.

 

[bob1852]

33% ROI...not bad. Is that per year? if so, sign me up.

I pity a business owner that considers a 66% loss to be a 33% gain.

 

[kh54s10]

33% ROI...not bad. Is that per year? if so, sign me up.

Wouldn't that actually be a NEGATIVE 66% return on investment?

 

[Dgallo]

Those costs are way way high. Hell brewing big big beers, raw ingredients shouldn't push you to those numbers. You should be able to do a 10%+ 5lb/bbl DDH NE DIPA for .40c per pint or your doing it wrong.

0.10-0.20c/pint is more reasonable.

With those numbers above no one could distro.

Now overhead, labor, utiliites, and of course distributor pricing, it gets a lot harder. The one accurate part, taproom pints pay the bills.

What size system are you talking about with your numbers.... $.10-.20 average crafter brewery in the USA is 5-7bbl

 

[Dgallo]

Wouldn't that actually be a NEGATIVE 66% return on investment?

If it’s annual and a profit of 33% of ROI it actually would really good. Paying off all your lenders in 3 years... that would be an awesome start up!

 

[Qhrumphf]

It's not the system as much as smart buying of ingredients. But I've done that on a 10bbl.

 

[kh54s10]

If it’s annual and a profit of 33% of ROI it actually would really good. Paying off all your lenders in 3 years... that would be an awesome start up!

I think that has been read wrong by a couple, The reply was that you start with 3 million to end up with 1 million. THERE IS NO ROI!!!

 

[Dgallo]

It's not the system as much as smart buying of ingredients. But I've done that on a 10bbl.

I just realized How much of a brain fart I was having. I was thinking 4 pack of 16s/6-12s cost of production and wrote about pints

 

[Qhrumphf]

I just realized I was how much of a brain fart I was having. I was thinking 4 pack of 16s/6-12s cost of production and wrote about pints

In that case, yes your ingredient costs make more sense.

 

[Hwk-I-St8]

I pity a business owner that considers a 66% loss to be a 33% gain.

He said "make a million" not end up with a million. To me that implies starting with three and ending with with four.

If I make $100 mowing lawns, I'm up 100.

 

[pdxal]

How did you make $100 mowing lawns? If you used a lawn mower you spent money to buy it, gas/electric to run it (not including labor/time cost) and that has to be factored in to cost/profit. What if you spent $500 for a mower, spent $2 for gas, and made $100? You'd still be down $402.

 

[papz]

You people are speaking different forms of English to each other.
*Sings "communication breakdown"*

 

[mongoose33]

Reminds me of an old joke about a farmer winning a lottery. Asked what he would do with his winnings, he responded: "Farm 'til it's gone."

 

[applescrap]

Regarding your experience with Zombie Dust, you have to put it into context. ZD, when it first came out, was amazing. Years later, citra based IPAs loaded with hop flavor are a dime a dozen. A similar beer is Heady Topper...one of the first (if not the first) NEIPAs. When it came out, it was revolutionary and a beer experience like no other. It was also hard to get and the two combined to make it one of the most sought after beers at the time. Try it now and, with all the other amazing NEIPAs out there, and it's OBE (Overcome By Events). It's just another in a sea of tasty beers, but no big deal. Bourbon County Stout is another example. It's still a very well done BA Imperial Stout, but there are tons of them out there now. At one point in time, it was revolutionary and an incredible new experience.

The thing to remember is that both those beers were exceptional when they came out. It's possible that everything that can be done with beer has been done, but I doubt it. There will be new exceptional and revolutionary beers coming in the future. How fun would it be to be to have one of those before they become the rage? To go someplace, try their flagship beer and realize you just had a sip of something truly amazing.

I drink mostly my homebrew, and I don't drink something new just because it's new, but I do look for opportunities to try something unique and different.

This is that beer friend. I wish I could get it to you.

 

[applescrap]

Sure it would be....provided I don't have to drink 100 so-so beers just in the off hope that I might stumble upon something exceptional.

Some of this may simply be my science background. I know that regression to the mean is a thing, and when I find a truly exceptional beer--which has only happened about 4 times ever--I am virtually certain the next beer, whatever it is, will be worse.

What's more, if I try a pint of something and it's underwhelming, I have to slog my way through it. Don't know how others react, but when I'm out to enjoy myself, I want to enjoy myself--not slog through a mediocre beer.

Many taprooms do flights, and some will offer a splash to taste something, and I avail myself of that. But I don't have any illusions--the odds of any of that being exceptional are very, very low. "Exceptional" means, to my way of thinking about it, a beer that is in the top 1 percent.

So if you have an exceptional beer and then try something different, what are the odds it'll be as good? 1:99. In other words, bet a lot it won't.



Most of the time I'm in a taproom or bar I'm wishing I had a pint of my own homebrew instead of what is on tap. I try different things here and there, hoping against hope for something exceptional, but it's not. And then I have to decide what I want in a pint.

I suspect some who are into the "try new things" approach might liken it to fishing, i.e., you cast a lot of lines looking for a bite from a monster fish.

And so be it. Takes all kinds to make a world.

Mongoose buddy your killing me. Please help me to the light. What makes your list?

Off the top of my head here is a list of beers that I saw tonight that I would consider exceptional. Some of them are, no?

Prarie bomb
Old rasputin xxi
Barrel aged yetti
Crooked stave petite raspberry and blueberry
Weldwerks juicy bits
Delirium tremens
St bernardus
Duvel
Chimay reserve
Elevated ipa
Original sin McIntosh cider
M43
Ratio genius
They had tons others in bottles beyond what I normally get.
Jeez I could go on.

 

[Brewfreedom]

In MD we never had the bubble to begin with due to our archaic/insane/corrupt dem party controlled beer laws. Local brewery near me Baltimore County Brewing Company is always packed and its off the path in an industrial park.

 

[madscientist451]

QUOTE="Dgallo, post: 8564865, member: 232777"]You must not understand the cost of running a business [/QUOTE]
I ran my own small production business for 10+ years, (Not beer) and I know what the costs are.
All I'm saying is that I refuse to pay $6+ for a glass of beer that isn't as good as what I can brew at home.
But the beer guzzling public doesn't have the same standards as I do. They are happy to pay the price for beer that isn't very good, they just don't even think about it.
If a really good band is playing I'll drink Bud Light for $6 and be satisfied, but if its a quiet night at the local pub, I'll skip it. Everyone has different wants, needs and desires and that's why Bud Light makes millions in profits for ABInBev

 

[Hwk-I-St8]

This is that beer friend. I wish I could get it to you. View attachment 620656

I haven't had that one, but I've had a lot of weldwerks beers. Great stuff.

 

[madscientist451]

Off the top of my head here is a list of beers that I saw tonight that I would consider exceptional.
Prarie bomb

OK, I'm off topic here, but thanks form posting. I never heard of Prarie Bomb, but now I'm going to attempt it based on this:
https://www.homebrewtalk.com/forum/threads/prairie-bomb-clone.454661/page-2
This is why I love homebrewing.....