You are absolutely spot on with respect to how little air/oxygen it takes trapped in the package to damage the beer, and you are also correct that naturally carbonating inside the keg is initially as good as carbonating in a bottle, perhaps even better if you've done a good job purging the keg first and performed a closed transfer.
The problem I have with corny kegs is the hardware we connect to them. Especially to the gas post.
Take a look at one of your grey quick disconnects. Turn it upside down, then fill it with water until the water level covers the poppet valve and reaches the o-ring. There's several ml there. When you connect the QD to the gas post, that space is filled with air which gets trapped by the o-ring, and enters the keg through the gas post once you force the disconnect on and the poppet valves open. Every time you disconnect or reconnect the QD, you are injecting several ml of air into your keg.
So why not just connect the gas once and leave it connected? Because your gas lines are oxygen permeable. To what extent depends on the material they're made of, but nearly all flexible plastic tubing has some oxygen permeability. It's not a fast diffusion, mind you, but a month or more is a very, very long time and your gas line has quite a bit of surface area. We are talking about 2 or 3 milligrams worth of oxygen being all it takes to damage the beer.
Then there's the issue of the purity of the CO2 source itself if you're using it to push the beer out. This has been covered in a few other threads here as well as on the German brewing forum, but food grade (99.5% pure) isn't good enough. Ideally the purity you want is 99.998% or better.
I think kegs are fine if you are running a bar or hosting a party or if you can empty them within 2 weeks or so of tapping them. Since I don't drink that fast, I'm considering going back to bottling.
Finally I want to emphasize that if you're happy with your beer, you don't have to go through all of this trouble. This stuff is really most important for extremely oxygen sensitive beers (like light lagers brewed with the low oxygen process from the paper I linked to, or a NE IPA whose hop character you want to last for more than 2 weeks).
All good points but I think you are over-estimating it.
well, so the inner diameter of the gray disconnect is about 16mm and the height from the middle of the o-ring where the seal is made to the top of the post is maybe 3mm or so, thats perhaps 0.5 mL, and majority of it, say about 90% or so (I would argue more) - will be "pushed out" by the post making a connection with the disconnect - the poppet is almost the same diameter and is sitting flush with the disconnect body. So let's say we are talking 1/10th of that, 0.05mL, or 50 uL of "dead air space" in between disconnect and the poppet (and I believe I am being generous, there's probably a lot less volume left there, depending on tolerances in manufacturing, wear-and-tear etc.), and I also believe that a great deal of this air will be pushed out by high pressure of CO2 once it starts flowing but before a good seal is made (sort of like mini-purge). Because when you re-connect a keg that is usually already under pressure, there will be high pressure on both sides, pushing air out until the good seal is established.
So maybe a few uL, maybe 10uL or even 20uL of air is trapped there - probably much less volume that is inside the volume defined by the bottle cap, but definitely not "several mL" of air.
The beer line "leaking in oxygen" effect can be estimated using Fick's diffusion law. I may try to do the calculation, but again, to make a strong argument one needs actual numbers, not just saying that the "surface area is large" and diffusion is very slow, but "the time is very long" - so where does this leave us? What is a very small diffusion rate times very long time - is that large or small?
The numbers quoted for oak barrel aging, which I suspect have a much higher oxygen permeability than polyethylene tubing, and have much greater surface area than the beer line (by about a factor of 10), by is about 2mL per liter of beer, per *month*. And this micro-dosing of oxygen is actually positive for many styles that benefit from long aging (imperial stouts, sours etc.)
The airlock, even when probably sealed, will let that much oxygen per day.
Again, I am not arguing these problems with kegging are nothing to worry about. But lets focus on areas where we let in a lot more oxygen - like during transfers (especially during bottling), cold-crashing or just letting the beer sit in a fermenter once fermentation is basically over. I still think transfers is the biggest area where most homebrewers oxidize their beers, followed by extended post-fermentation.
Unless one bottles from the beer gun from the keg, into a bottle that is flushed with CO2, with a beer that has been closed-transfered, cold-crashed under CO2, not dry-hopped past fermentation, not allowed to sit even for a few days after fermentation under airlock - I would argue it will have more chances to pick up large amounts of oxygen than a kegged beer. Even then, it could pick up more oxygen during bottle filling process.
And I would not try to age any beer that is not meant for aging (as in - high ABV>10%, dark style with no hops or other fleeting favors). I think even in complete absence of oxygen flavors of other beers undergo changes that are not desirable for most styles, so drinking a beer within a month or three of brewing/kegging is always a good idea.