Sooooo. I guess the hops shortage is over...

[BierMuncher]

.....................

 

[Parker36]

Shhhh, lets keep this between us

 

[HenryHill]

In some varieties.

 

[Revvy]

Yeah, I have a flood of everything I need at all the stores I frequent...I actually used Hallertau this weekend, not a sub for it.

 

[BierMuncher]

In some varieties.

Yeah, I'd love to get my hands on some more Summit.

I miss my Sacred Summit Pale Ale.

 

[Donasay]

It is kind of sad that we think it going back down to $20 a lb is shortage being over. I mean we can get tons of varieties now, which is great, but when I stocked up before the shortage I was buying stuff at $9 - $15 per pound. But, I guess those days are never going to come again.

 

[BierMuncher]

... But, I guess those days are never going to come again.

I know these prices are down about 15% from last time I ordered a couple months ago.

Likely that the closer they get into the new season, the more excess they'll realize they have on hand and prices may drop further.

 

[HenryHill]

I know these prices are down about 15% from last time I ordered a couple months ago.

Likely that the closer they get into the new season, the more excess they'll realize they have on hand and prices may drop further.

I think that, like gas prices, the temptation to sell at exorbitant prices, even when there is no supply problem, that the prices will creep back up.

 

[cuinrearview]

The prices at HD have came down steadily since the harvest offering. They have also added more varieties including pellet cent. very recently. The good news for some of us, including myself, is that the shortage has grown our green thumbs and we'll have most varieties in house soon and all of this craziness won't matter. I'll still be after some Summit, Simcoe, and Amarillo though!

 

[BierMuncher]

I think that, like gas prices, the temptation to sell at exorbitant prices, even when there is no supply problem, that the prices will creep back up.

I don't think so.

Unlike gas (a necessity), homebrewing is a hobby...and relies on discretionary income. In this economy that extra income is dried up. Demand for non-essentials is down. I don't remember ever seeing Hops Direct offering 44# bundles of hops.

I know homebrewers who stopped brewing IPA's (or stopped brewing all together) because hops prices just pushed them out. Even on this site, you can hear about folks loosing jobs or taking pay cuts and basically taking a brewing furlough.

Plus, unlike the fuel industry, hops is a renewable resource that is going to be planted again in several weeks.

Word is that in the UK, pubs are closing up because of low "attendance". Pubs close the doors, local brew houses slow production, hops supply exceeds demand. And it's not that folks will stop drinking beer (booze will always survive a recession), but you'll probably see more people passing by the craft ale section where hoppy 6-packs are $8.99 and picking up a 30-cube of Milwaukees Best for $12.99

I think a lot will depend on the growing season they have this year. If they end up with a bumper crop next September and there are still ample supplies on hand, they're going to want to turn that excess into cash.

 

[eschatz]

I just bought 1/2 lb centennial pellets from Northern Brewer for $3.99 an oz. I can still feel the pain....

 

[Gordie]

A couple other things going on as well. A number of breweries were offloading their hop surplus and providing cheap hops to LHBS and homebrewers over the past few months. Also, in the shortage the commercial breweries got more creative about brewing low-hop beers and more efficiently using the hops they have. Looking forward, more acreage has been planted to craft-brew hops and growers are seeing the growth in craft brew sales and realizing that they don't have to shift to growing tons of ultra high alpha hops for the BMC type productions. Since they make more money on the "flavor" hops on a alpha-per-pound basis this should also continue. The prices we get are always a function of the commercial market anyway - although it tends to take more time to trickle through to LHBS pricing since they'll just bank the extra margin until forced to lower price by a competitor. The upshot is that hop prices are likely to continue to creep down for another year or so and when the new plantings come on-line in a year or two it should stabilize them somewhat. If there's a massive expansion in commercial craft-brew production it will increase demand for the stuff we like to use, but with the increase in plantings and production it shouldn't spike prices again. Assuming there's no drought, locust, evil fire-breathing-hop-eating-giant-frogs, etc. we may see per lb prices drop another couple bucks as we get towards harvest in the fall and hopefully drop another buck if there's a good harvest.

Maybe. Or maybe not. What was the question?

 

[BierMuncher]

I just bought 1/2 lb centennial pellets from Northern Brewer for $3.99 an oz. I can still feel the pain....

Dude, for $25 you could have bought a pound from HD.

 

[944play]

 

[McKBrew]

Unlike gas (a necessity), homebrewing is a hobby

Blasphemy you speaketh. I'd rather walk than not have beer. (OK, just kidding) but still.....

 

[Brew-Happy]

Blasphemy you speaketh. I'd rather walk than not have beer. (OK, just kidding) but still.....

Well if the gov would allow personal fuel ethanol production you wouldn't have to walk because of brewing!!

 

[BierMuncher]

Oh sure...you and your fancy schmansy graphs....

Well, I got a graph for ya...

 

[Jaybird]

There was a hop shortage? When?

 

[McKBrew]

I find it odd that the prices aren't coming down at the homebrew shops yet. I imagine there is some cost associated with the distributors breaking them down and re-packaging them.

 

[humann_brewing]

Well that settles it we should just all grow our own hops

Seriously though, I just picked up a LB of cascades for $22 and a LB of willamette for $20 at midwest. Also a few other random ones that were $3.50-$4 for 2oz packs.

I didn't really brew much when the prices were so much cheaper so I don't get the opportunity to be mad at these high prices as it is just what I am use too. It would be nice if they went down though.

 

[FxdGrMind]

I'll probably brew 6-8 batches this year and next while I wait anxiously for my hops to grow and reduce the cost of "Flavoring" my beer.

Paid over $4.99 for 2 Oz of Cascades.... and that's all I could find as it was a substitute for the recipe hop required.... GRRRR

When I realized the cost of my M&J kit topping $50 for 5 gal batch.... that hurt. Now I hope it is just as good and justifies my expenditure.

Fingers Crossed as I get my first taste of the "Green" M&J Sunday.

 

[bob1852]

So BierMuncher -- how you doing on your beer comsumption curve??

 

[nosmatt]

someone needs to tell B3 the shortage is over!
Centennial Pellets (2 oz) 5.99

anyway, local LHBS is $4.50 and once. crazy.

im puttin together another freshops order now before whole leaf is too hard to find and all thats left is pellet. SWMBO is not gonna like this expense.

but, if i quit smoking, i can save $100/week !!!!!!! thats alotta brewing supplies and equipment.... how many weeks in a year?

 

[dontman]

My LHBS charges $6/oz for the Centennial pellets.

(That's a lot of smoking. Nice Cuban cigars?)

 

[Duckfoot]

My LHBS charges $6/oz for the Centennial pellets.

(That's a lot of smoking. Nice Cuban cigars?)

Not Cuban cigars... Crack....

 

[Duster72]

Yeah, my LHBS charged me $10 for 2.5oz EKGs last week. I came home, saw the price drop at HD and placed my third order since the harvest. I could have gotten a half pound for $10.

 

[nosmatt]

My LHBS charges $6/oz for the Centennial pellets.

(That's a lot of smoking. Nice Cuban cigars?)

nah, two cartons of carlton 100's. $52.00/carton...

SWMBO helps!

 

[Donasay]

The graph above measures hop production in Alpha acid units, not in weight, many growers have been getting rid of their low AAU crops and putting in high AAU crops, so the total acerage and per pound could be doing something completely different from what is depicted in that graph.

 

[Desert_Sky]

Group buy anyone?

11 bucks a lb aint too bad

Yes we hops for sale too - ProBrewer Interactive

 

[Splangy]

Group buy anyone?

11 bucks a lb aint too bad

Yes we hops for sale too - ProBrewer Interactive

Hell, at those prices I could use a lb or so each of willamette and cascade.