So TONS of great comments in this thread from people coming from many different angles.
I think maybe my original post kind of missed the mark of what I was looking for, could have been the couple beers I had the night I wrote it
Let me say again I am not quitting my day job, I am not jumping into something without thinking, I am not doing this right now. Its something I am thinking of dipping my toe in down the road and I am looking to take steps to to get there. Or steps to find out it would be a very bad idea.
The first thing and main thing I was looking for is I need to know I can make good beer all the time. I recently changed part of my gear and increased my batch size. This led me to a whole host of issues. I am working to resolve those. But it got me thinking. So I am thinking it makes sense to put a little money into good equipment on the cold side, i.e. conical fermenter (unitank) with proper temp control to really give me the best chance possible to make very good beer. The thinking is if I can replicate the process on a small scale it would make moving up easier as the process would be the same, just different size tank. Making this small investment would be a much smarter approach than trying to jump from 5 gallon batches and carboys to 2 bbl and conicals etc. It would also really put my abilities on the line because if I can't make good beer with very good equipment then there is no future in this anyway.
My thought was to take the next year to really work on that side of the equation, brew a lot, build recipes, work on consistency, work on the process of brewing and troubleshooting and if a year from now I can brew the same recipes with the same results over and over then I can take the next step.
The other other part of my original post was just trying to lay out a business plan very early. Like others here have said, if you dont have a very solid plan the rest does not matter, you will fail. My plan would be to start small, hit farmers markets, get the word out via social media, etc to see what the reception would be. This would be check point number 2.
IF I made it past the first 2 check points then it would be time to think about the small brewhouse seriously. I feel it takes more than making good beer to be successful, that is where the barn brewery comes in. Finding a scenic setting so that people can go and relax and enjoy the atmosphere. For me something like that is more appealing. Having something like that on your own property also reduces operating cost. And if it fails, again you still have value in the property.
I also feel that keeping it small and selling mostly pours with some take home crowlers/growlers give you the best chance to make some money. Around here the average for pints from a brewery runs from $5-8+ Growlers go for $12-20. This gives you a better chance to make income as opposed to selling kegs to bars or trying to distribute.
One thing, someone brought up the CT farm license. It is brand new, but I have spoken to some of the local breweries that have some working knowledge of its rules and the 25% part actually does not need to be on premises. They really want it in state and my understanding is that even that is not attainable today and they made the requirement a 50 mile radius to get local ingredients. This makes using malt farms in western ma and NY state possible. Only a handful at most are looking to grow malt in CT. There is some hop growing, but not a ton. A lot of the breweries are also basically using local adjucts to meet the criteria. As I said it is a new law, but some smaller breweries were approved in the last year or two with modified existing laws and using the farm brewing license as template before it was actually enacted.
Anyway, I will see how things go, in the mean time, time to get brewing.