The dead air inside the tun will remain at 100% humidity and constantly be sapping heat from the mash it reaches equilibrium within the tun. This situation resets every time the lid is opened. I think a thermal blanket in close proximity to the mash would be wise for small mashes at low temperature. There are useful resources at Engineering toolbox.com. you would be surprised how much energy it takes to raise the temperature of humid air. Perhaps I'll do the physics calculations of OP exact numbers when I get the time.