Ok this is now sitting in a 5 gallon carboy - 4 hours start to finish, not too bad for 1st time I would say. Few thoughts and problems though:
1 - ended up with OG of 1.050 - should have been 1.067
2 - ended up with estimated 2.6 gallons instead of 2 gallons in carboy. I am guessing this extra 0.6 gallons effected the OG quite a bit. (Not sure how this happened as my 30 minute test earlier it looked like I boiled off almost 1 gallon per hour...)
3 - Efficiency ended up at 73% per Brewer's Friend - recipe assumed 75% so pretty close there even with the extra 0.6 gallons of water
So end result will be to update my boil off rate to 0.65 gallons (2.6 qts) per hour. Updating my information Priceless shows a start of 3.55 gallons which would have ended up perfect here. Brewer's Friend shows 3.97 gallons to start so it is a bit off yet.
Now to look for the next brew.....
If you did the 30 minute test and are confident in the results, I would suggest you look at other steps throughout the process to account for losses, or lack therof. At the end of the day you can shift the numbers to whereever and get the right volume to fermentor, but I think it helps to know which step in the process losses come from.
Like wilserbrewer said, if you start the boil with a low SG and high volume, you can simply extend your boil to get to the right gravity...this might mean you need to let it boil for X amount of time before adding your first hop addition. But if you don't know your volumes throughout the process you can't make these adjustments.
Things you should record..at minimum:
- Strike water Volume
- Pre-boil: Volume/SG (after bag squeeze/drain but before boil) STIR!
- Post-boil: (before chilling) Volume/SG
- Volume/OG after chilling (evap. still happens until wort is cooled and thermal expansion when wort is still hot will lead you to believe you have more than you really do)
- Volume to fermentor (trub left behind from settled hop/grain/cold break)
- Volume packaged (sediment left behind from dry hop/trub/settled yeast)
Armed with this information you should be able to make most on the fly corrections throughout your brew day if any are needed. Ultimately, you should be able to look at your grain/hop bill and know almost instinctively what these volumes/gravities should be and you won't have to make corrections...as much.