Thanks guys I’m leaning towards a two-fold problem as well. For the record, one of the two brews I’ve done in Texas was a rebrew of a recipe I did in Ohio. Literally exact same recipe.
1) I am almost certain that he volume issue has to do with my boil rate and mash tun loss. The geometry of my new cooler is different, but still leaves less than .5gallon retain (I tested that). But it’s typically 90o outside here in Texas versus most of my Ohio brewing was done in cold weather. I am also going to do a test boil to determine my boil off rate because I am assuming that’s why I’m losing so much volume. But also, when I plug my numbers in for strike water volume, brewers friend literally feeds me grain weight x 1.5 to give me the quarts. I think it used to be better than that (when I used it in Ohio) but I don’t know.
Repeat recipe: Total fermentables=11.85 pounds. Volume of strike water 4.5 gallons. Volume of sparge water 3.0 gallons. Preboil volume came out about 7 gallons, a little lower. Post boil volume: 3.25 gallons. Target OG was almost spot on .
But I think the mash is sucking. I would assume the grains are at least fairly fresh, but can’t confirm that. They were bought from a popular home brew supply store in the city (DeFalcos). I milled them myself at the store and used them a few days later. Essentially the same thing I did in Ohio but obviously a different store. Which takes me to water chemistry which I have always tried to avoid.
My plan at this point is this:
1) Buy beersmith and use it instead of a free app
2) Use spring water or RO water for the next batch
3) I also want to set up a little mash with my tap water and test the pH of that mash
4) carefully measure volume of each step and take gravity readings of first runnings, pre boil, and post boil.
If everything goes splendidly on a batch with RO water then that would inform what’s happening. If not it’s back to the drawing board. I know southeast Texas water is garbage, insanely hard, and unpredictable because of its sourcing.
If i weren’t hitting my target gravity, this would be a lot easier to figure out, but I have twice now hit my target gravity but at the total wrong volume.