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I would say that usually my beers are easily on par with commercial beers. We all have beers that aren't quite what we had hoped for but they are still alright. I think the "ugly baby syndrome" happens more with new brewers where as advanced brewers never think there beers are good enough. Think of it this way. If you enter a beer into a comp and it scores a 30 it is still considered a "good" beer even though most of us would not be very happy with that score. Even though it is being judged by a "beer geek" who is looking for flaws it is considered a "good" beer. Now give that same beer to a regular craft beer drinker and he/she will think it is at least a good beer but probably even better!! I love reading the Commercial Calibration section of Zymurgy...a few months ago a beer that had won multiple medals at GABF only scored a 32-33.
 
Honestly I'd say 1 out of every 5 beers on average but I'm also brewing on a small scale compared to them.

Quality control and consistency is the biggest hurdle for a homebrewer.

I've been brewing for about 12 years.
 
I'm only just under a year in, and so far have brewed 7 beers. Everything I've brewed has been well-recieved by everyone who has tasted them, and I have people who wouldn't hesitate to tell me if it sucked. Plus, I have enjoyed the hell out of all of them, which is my main goal!

I've made some mistakes, of course, just like we all do, but nothing that made anything worse than alot of the crap beers I've tried. I've brewed two all grain beers now, one is still fermenting. The first was an ESB that I didn't use enough hops on, but it still tastes good, if not correct to style. We'll see on the second.

Hopefully I'll start entering some competitions here soon, so I can get some outside opinions and learn where else I can improve.
 
I would say that on average mine are better than commercial craft, but that is based on a lot of "Hey, here's something new, I'll try a 6er of this." The consistency is where I lack a bit, I can just about guarantee myself a stand-up double and hit quite a few round trips, but I have an occasional but or sac-fly.
My 2 great accomplishments (on different brews) were getting a pure Coors Light guy to pour himself another draft instead of opening the cooler, and when a guy who used to run a bottle shop told me that my IIPA was easily of the $12 4pk caliber :)
 
It would be interesting to see all these beers that everyone thinks are better under a microscope - that might shape your confidence just a little.
 
It would be interesting to see all these beers that everyone thinks are better under a microscope - that might shape your confidence just a little.

That's a great point! In some ways it is much harder to produce a quality homebrew vs. a quality commercial beer. They have the benefit of a lab and a Q/C program (hopefully). They can measure yeast parameters ( density, viability, etc) and contaminants. Most of us can't. Not to mention all the other high tech stuff brewing stuff they have that we can only dream about.
 
I will put it this way... I haven't brewed a beer that wasn't extremely drinkable! With all the information out there these days, the internet to pick and computer programs like BeerSmith I have found it somewhat easy to brew decent beer. I will say that I read several books, I have a note book I keep not to mention the computer. I collected and made equipment for a couple years before brewing (I'm a maintenance mechanic/pipe fitter by trade.) And I'm as anal as they come! I have has several beer nuts try my brews and until I show them the equipment and kegs they don't believe me. Would I brag? Hell no. But when people say OMG I politely say " Thank-you." And I do know that I don't make the beer just the parameters for the "little beasts" to make the beer!!!
 
Mine certainly is not and especially when I start experimenting and making up my own recipes.... I am quite disappointed.

When I follow most recipes they turn out great, but I know they don't match the quality of something coming out of Bell's or Dogfish Head.
 
@clockwise

Do you use a program like BeerSmith? I hate to sound like an advert but it does keep you on track. Don't go crazy with making up a recipe. Keep it simple. And read read read.
 
@clockwise

Do you use a program like BeerSmith? I hate to sound like an advert but it does keep you on track. Don't go crazy with making up a recipe. Keep it simple. And read read read.

+1

One thing I always try to keep in mind (and I know Brad Smith of BeerSmith is big on saying this too, among other folks) when designing my own recipes, is to question why every ingredient is in a recipe. If you can't figure out why it needs to be there, then it probably doesn't need to be there. That goes for malts, hops, adjuncts, spices, whatever. Add things with a purpose. And keep it simple.
 
I've been trying a few random craft beers lately and I think they have raised their game in the past 20 years. Even random breweries in the middle of nowhere have phenomenal fresh well crafted beer. Even big name players are putting out phenomenal beer. I know I don't have the technique to produce beers like:
Cortland IPA
Goose Island IPA
 
All of mine are as good or better than some I have bought. That is not as much self praise as it is an indictment of the commercial brewing market. I have tasted some shag nasty commercial beers.
 
My last IPA was really good. Definitely like nothing i've had from a craft brewery. Though it was mostly in the aroma which I find a lot of breweries lack around here. But that was just 1 batch, the others left much to be desired.
 
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