I'll take a whack at this...lol. Not knowing all the variables makes it a challenge. Not knowing your procedure multiplies that difficulty...I have a HERMS also. I take my mash temp coming out of the HLT, on it's return to the MLT, for the record, and will check my grain bed temps occasionally to see that everything is where it's supposed to be. Once my mash is recirculating, I find that it is 2 or 3 degrees lower than my HLT temps. I set accordingly. If I want 152 for my mash, then I get my HLT to 155. Now then, that's not my strike temp! If you need 168 for strike, because the weight of your grain bill and in combination with the temp of your grains, then you should do your level best to make your strike water 168, so after dumping the cold grain into and thoroughly mixing, it comes to rest at 152. I don't know if you have a burner under the mash, so you could get to strike temps without over shooting the mash recirculating temp. I have a bucket with cold water in it to drop my HLT temps after getting my strike water temp. Put that water into my mash, then refill my
HLT in order to cover the coil and drop temp at same time. It helps to keep your transfer line as short a length as possible, and even better if you insulate it. I run my pump at 3/4 open to full, depending on my grain bill. You have to be careful with that as you can compact your bed.