HBT NFL Mock Draft '09

[the_bird]

I've been reading as many draft reports as I can. I'm thinking that Pioli ends up drafting someone on the defensive side; the Pats seemed to draft a defensive lineman in the first round every single year. Kansas City had absolutely no pass rush last year, either.

EDIT: Notable free agent signing - Fred Taylor's Groin, New England Patriots!

 

[RICLARK]

I've been reading as many draft reports as I can. I'm thinking that Pioli ends up drafting someone on the defensive side; the Pats seemed to draft a defensive lineman in the first round every single year. Kansas City had absolutely no pass rush last year, either.

EDIT: Notable free agent signing - Fred Taylor's Groin, New England Patriots!

They Definately need a pass rush, They were just awful last year. I think Aaron Curry would be great for them even though they need D line.

 

[Danek]

Notable free agent signing - Fred Taylor's Groin, New England Patriots!

Assuming Taylor's healthy enough to chip in then it's a good signing, but I'm not sure it augurs well for Maroney. He needs to have a breakout year this season or I suspect he'll go the same way as Chad Jackson.

 

[the_bird]

Sounds like the Chiefs may be trading a third rounder for Mike Vrabel. He's getting a little long in the tooth, but he's a real good guy to have in your locker room. Pats are kinda hamstrung now that they have so much committed to the QB spot; also discussion this may be tied into a bigger move.

I agree, too, it's time for Maroney to **** or get off the pot. If he gets hurt in camp, he'll be cut. I'm hoping it all starts clicking for him like it did for DeAngelo Williams last year, who I think was drafted the same year.

 

[uglygoat]

clowns traded k2 to tampa for a second rounder... lmao, here's your new contract kellen... we've got a lot more self appraised talent left to trade for draft picks in my view.

 

[Danek]

KC have just upgraded themselves significantly in exchange for sending their R2 pick to New England. I know Vrabel's getting on a little, but unless Cassel turns out to be a one-season wonder, that trade looks like a steal for Pioli.

 

[the_bird]

The Cassel deal was definately disappointing from the Patriot's perspective. I think we all would have been fine with just getting that pick for Cassel, but losing Vrabel (who the Chiefs will LOVE) sucks.

But, this should free up a lot of space, I'd love to see them do something interesting with it.

 

[the_bird]

What I don't get is why they couldn't shoehorn Tony Gonzales in the deal some way. He wants out of KC, the Pats are always looking to upgrade the TE spot (they just signed that guy - Baker, maybe? - who used to play for the Jets). Gonzales is getting old, but he can still play, and he'd be outstanding as a bigger option for those plays in the middle they always run for Welker. You have those two guys in the middle of the field, Moss stretching the field... that's certainly make up for losing Jabar Gaffney!

 

[Danek]

What I don't get is why they couldn't shoehorn Tony Gonzales in the deal some way. He wants out of KC, the Pats are always looking to upgrade the TE spot (they just signed that guy - Baker, maybe? - who used to play for the Jets). Gonzales is getting old, but he can still play, and he'd be outstanding as a bigger option for those plays in the middle they always run for Welker. You have those two guys in the middle of the field, Moss stretching the field... that's certainly make up for losing Jabar Gaffney!

I guess they reckoned Baker was better value for money than Gonzales would have been (that's assuming that Gonzales is on substantial money, as he's obviously the better player). The Pats also need to extend Wilfork and Mankins's contracts, and even without Cassel on the books, new contracts for those two would still put them close to the cap. FWIW, I think that Baker will turn out to be a good acquisition. His numbers from two years ago were pretty impressive, and last season he got squeezed out by that rookie TE whose name I can't remember. So I think he's better than his production last year would suggest.

As for the KC trade, Mike Smith on ESPN said that the Pats threw in Vrabel as a salary dump. I don't know if that's true, but even if that is the case, I still can't believe they couldn't get another lower-round pick for including him. I assume KC would have given up the R2 for Cassel on his own. That being the case, there must have been at least one club in the NFL that would want Vrabel in exchange for a fourth or fifth round pick.

[EDIT: WTF? Just seen this on Boston.com: "The Saturday trade that shipped Cassel and Vrabel to Kansas City for a second-round pick (No. 34 overall) allowed the Patriots to clear Cassel's $14.65 million franchise tag fee off the books and $3.3 million of Vrabel's scheduled $4.3 million cap hit in 2009. Lending further credence to the idea that the trade was done in part with an eye toward clearing cap space is the fact that the Lions offered the first pick of the second round (No. 33 overall) straight up for Cassel, according to an NFL source. Kansas City's willingness to take on Vrabel's contract allowed the Patriots to gain more room under the cap." So the Pats actually gave up a couple of draft places to get rid of Vrabel? Belichick must really think he's got nothing left in the tank.]

 

[ohiobrewtus]

The Cassel deal was definately disappointing from the Patriot's perspective. I think we all would have been fine with just getting that pick for Cassel, but losing Vrabel (who the Chiefs will LOVE) sucks.

But, this should free up a lot of space, I'd love to see them do something interesting with it.

The Vrabel/Cassel move was all about freeing up cap space and keeping Cassel out of the hands of Josh McDaniels.

I think that in a sick and twisted way, Belichick is going to get some satisfaction out of knowing that his trade of Cassel to KC just completely kicked the value of Derek Anderson right in the nuts. If KC gave up #34 for Cassel and Vrabel, that makes Anderson worth a 3rd at best. This trade could very well force the Browns (and Mangini) to pay Anderson that $5 million roster bonus and keep him on the roster in '09.

I'm guessing that the thought of that puts a big smile on Belichik's face.

 

[ohiobrewtus]

The Lions did offer #33 for Cassel, but they weren't going to keep him. They would have taken Cassel for pick #33 then traded him to Denver for Jay Cutler straight up.

 

[the_bird]

The Vrabel/Cassel move was all about freeing up cap space and keeping Cassel out of the hands of Josh McDaniels.

I think that in a sick and twisted way, Belichick is going to get some satisfaction out of knowing that his trade of Cassel to KC just completely kicked the value of Derek Anderson right in the nuts. If KC gave up #34 for Cassel and Vrabel, that makes Anderson worth a 3rd at best. This trade could very well force the Browns (and Mangini) to pay Anderson that $5 million roster bonus and keep him on the roster in '09.

I'm guessing that the thought of that puts a big smile on Belichik's face.

See, I don't buy that Belichick is all that worried about Cassel going to a rival team. I mean, is there anyone in the world who knows more about his weaknesses that Belichick? He knows Cassel's strengths and weaknesses better than Cassel does!

I'm still not clear on whether Denver's proposal even got to the official stage, but regardless, they've pissed the **** out of Cutler now.

There's talk about the Pats making a move for Julius Peppers; if they grab him, losing Vrabel becomes less important.

There was other talk about them pursuing Derrick Brooks; time flies, he's been in the league fourteen years now. Doesn't seem to be as much of a playmaker anymore, his tackles were down a lot despite playing all 16 games (guessing he plays more situationally now), but only one pick, one forced fumble, and he hasn't had a sack in three years. It's not all about the stats, especially in football, but I wonder how much ball he really has left in him.

 

[ohiobrewtus]

I'd be quite surprised to see Peppers land in NE. He's going to want Haynesworth money and I don't see the Patriots meeting whatever the Panthers' draft pick requirements are *plus* matching $12+ million a year for a guy that's almost 30.

I agree that Cassel isn't much of a QB. He's system QB, and McDaniels was the OC of that system. Ruinite Cassel with McDaniels in Denver and they could tear it up. Not what you want if you're Bill Belichik

 

[the_bird]

I know, but they've surprised me in the past. Never expected to land either Rosie Colvin or Adelius Thomas. In any case, I think they'll make ONE impact acquisition on the defensive side, whether it's Peppers or a youngish, talented LB to play alongside Mayo and the old farts.

 

[Danek]

Even allowing for Belichick's form in springing free-agent surprises, I don't think Peppers is moving to the Pats. Given the likely inflationary effect of the Haynesworth signing on DL contracts, I don't see the Pats being able to afford both Peppers and Wilfork - and I think Wilfork is more important to the 3-4 that the Patriots play. So my guess is they'll prioritise extending his contract ahead of acquiring Peppers.

 

[ohiobrewtus]

Even allowing for Belichick's form in springing free-agent surprises, I don't think Peppers is moving to the Pats. Given the likely inflationary effect of the Haynesworth signing on DL contracts, I don't see the Pats being able to afford both Peppers and Wilfork - and I think Wilfork is more important to the 3-4 that the Patriots play. So my guess is they'll prioritise extending his contract ahead of acquiring Peppers.

Danek, are you able to get NFL games at all on your side of the pond?

 

[Danek]

Danek, are you able to get NFL games at all on your side of the pond?

Yeah, easily enough - they show several games each week on cable TV. Though as I don't have cable where I live, I either have to go back to my parents' and watch games there, or else I make do with listening to games on Boston radio over the internet. The one thing it's impossible to get, though, is coverage of college sports of any kind. We used to get old re-runs of ESPN college games in the middle of the night, but now even that's dried up.

 

[ohiobrewtus]

**REMINDER**

I an officially on the clock for the Lions one week from today at 8 am.

 

[Danek]

**REMINDER**

I an officially on the clock for the Lions one week from today at 8 am.

(Just checking, as one who is afflicted by time-zones - that's 8am ET, right?)

Pat Kirwan at NFL.com has another mock draft up at:

Mock draft 3.0: Texas' Orakpo moving up the board

One thing I can't figure out is who the top RB prospect is in this draft. I've seen widely different appraisals of Moreno and Wells, but no-one seems to be all that crazy about either one of them.

 

[ohiobrewtus]

I am now officially on the clock for the Detroit Lions and entertaining all trade offers. PM me if you are interested in coming up to the #1 overall pick.

 

[Dude]

It's on! *subscribes to thread and waits for the fun*

 

[Danek]

This isn't mock draft related, though it might become so.

Even allowing for Belichick's form in springing free-agent surprises, I don't think Peppers is moving to the Pats.

Prediction FAIL!

Patriots appear primed to make a deal with Panthers for Peppers

 

[ohiobrewtus]

With the first selection in the 2009 NFL draft the Detroit Lions select...

Aaron Curry, LB - Wake Forest.

It's a bit unconventional to take a LB with the #1 overall pick, but new GM Martin Mayhew has shown so far this offseason that he's anything but conventional when it comes to making moves that he thinks will improve this team.

As I write this it is being reported that the Lions are the most likely trade partner with the Denver Broncos in the Jay Cutler sweepstakes. If they end up landing Cutler, the trade package may end up including this pick. If it does not, then it will most certainly include the #20 overall pick in the 1st round. The Lions continued interest in Jay Cutler almost completely eliminates Matthew Stafford from contention for the #1 pick.

Stafford may be the best QB prospect in this year's draft but given the competition, that's not saying much. Stafford takes too many chances, he doesn't perform exceptionally well under pressure and his completion percentage, win/loss record and TD/INT ratio in 3 years at Georgia are a combined slightly above average at best. Slightly above average is not what you're looking for when you need a $35 million guaranteed new face for your franchise. The Lions know that they're rebuilding and they will take their chances on landing a franchise QB next year in what appears to be a MUCH stronger class of QB's.

I was really torn on this selection. Despite the recent trade that sent Corey Redding to Seattle (with a 5th round pick) for LB Julian Peterson, this came down to Jason Smith and Aaron Curry for me, as the Lions needed to come out of this offseason with both a new MLB and a new OLB. They got their new OLB in Peterson.

The Jeff Backus (Lions starting LT) situation really makes this complicated. Jim Schwartz wants to run the ball and focus on the trenches. Smith would be plugged in at LT and Backus moved to LG, or Smith could play LG for a year then take over at LT when it becomes more cap friendly to cut Backus.

I was 50/50 until I looked at the Lions biggest needs - MLB, DT, OT, OG and CB. There is no DT worthy of the #1 overall selection unless they reach for Raji. That leaves Curry and Smith (and possibly Eugene Monroe, who is scheduled for a visit with the Lions this week).

There are 6 potential starting LT's in this draft and 2 of them are likely to be available when the Lions pick at #20 - William Beatty and Eben Britton. There are 3 potential starting MLB's in this draft and they could all be gone by #20 (Curry, Maualuga and Laurinaitis). The Lions #1 need IMO is MLB. The number of prospects available at each postiion steers me towards Curry, but what actually happens is ultimately dependent upon the contract negotiations that will start in a month or so - as well as Matt Stafford's pro day later this week. If he completely blows the Lions away then he may come back into contention for this pick.

I believe that the Lions will be able to convince Curry and his agent to take slightly less money to be taken #1 overall than someone like Smith or Stafford would want just because of the position that he plays. Curry played SAM in college, but he played the middle in nickel situations and Lions head coach Jim Schwartz has stated multiple times that Curry would have no problem playing Mike in a 4-3.

Curry gets inserted at MLB from day one, making the Lions defense better immediately.

There's a lot still looming at this point, and Detroit may not even be picking here, but right now, this is the right - and safest pick for this franchise.

(not all explainations need to be anywhere near this long, guys... )

Danek is now on the clock for the St. Louis Rams.

 

[the_bird]

Well, you just blew up my plans for #3....

 

[Danek]

With the second selection in the 2009 NFL draft, the St Louis Rams select...

Jason Smith, OT - Baylor.

A no-brainer. Smith is the best of an excellent crop of offensive linemen, and arguably worthy of the #1 spot overall. The Rams released Orlando Pace, and with this pick they replace him and lock up one tackle spot for the next ten years. Some teams are wary of picking this high in the draft, as the costs are high for what are effectively untested players. But like Curry, Smith is as close to a sure thing as you'll get.

 

[the_bird]

I'll be entertaining trade offers for the #3 overall pick for a couple of hours.

 

[the_bird]

With the third pick in the HBT NFL Mock Draft, the Kansas City Chiefs select...

B.J. Raji, defensive tackle, Boston College.

We're obviously not going for a quarterback, and no one seemed inclined to move up to grab Matt Stafford. There was never a debate that we needed to take a defensive player; look at all the D-linemen that Pioli and Belichick drafted high. Raji's a prototypical thick, low-built defensive lineman that can play the nose if we install the 3-4 defense, and has got the build to play the 2-gap technique.

The Chiefs are pretty desperate for a pass rush, so we were also thinking about some players who have more potentially to get after the quarterback - but the easiest way to get better in the NFL (and to have consistent success) is to be able to stop the run.

 

[ohiobrewtus]

cuinrearview is now on the clock for the Seattle Seahawks.

Great pick, Jay.

 

[the_bird]

I was hoping for Curry (he seems like the closest to a sure thing in this draft), but having a big, talents guy like Raji in the middle makes such a difference. I remember how much better the Pats got, almost instantly, when they brought aboard Ted Washington. We've talked about this; I'm a firm believer in building from the inside out; teams that control the line of scrimmage consistently are almost always in the playoffs, even if they lack playmakers.

 

[Dude]

With the third pick in the HBT NFL Mock Draft, the Kansas City Chiefs select...

B.J. Raji, defensive tackle, Boston College.

About what I would expect in real life too. Good pick.

I wish Raji would fall a bit to #9 in the "real" draft.