Has brewing finally jumped the shark?
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I think you're always going to have some breweries starting, some closing. We had a local guy who had his homebrew on tap here in town. He's out of business but not because of any bubble--rather, his beer was crappy. Way overcarbonated, and he's make bizarre flavors that you'd try once and say "never again." Like BBQ beer. Coconut beer, where the coconut just overwhelmed everything else. But did he have a good basic IPA, a good American Ale, a nice Stout, or anything else you'd have walked an extra block to drink?
No. I tried him twice, and twice was enough. He's now out of business. I think he was more into brewing to please his sense of creativity than he was to please his customers.
When I lived in NC there were these little hole-in-the-wall BBQ places that had no ambiance, looked like they hadn't had any maintenance done since the Great Recession, served with paper plates and plastic silverware. They did a land-office business not because of the above, but because they had a great product at a fair price--and people came from miles and miles just to get it.
IMO, quality will always win out unless there is unfair competition (i.e., a major brewer undercutting price so much that a craft brewery cannot compete).
Will the market become saturated? Maybe. But I don't see this as a bubble--craft brews have been around a long time, and while the Martini example is apt at one level, it was simply a restatement of an oldie but a goodie. Beer is beer.
My 2 cents.
No. I tried him twice, and twice was enough. He's now out of business. I think he was more into brewing to please his sense of creativity than he was to please his customers.
When I lived in NC there were these little hole-in-the-wall BBQ places that had no ambiance, looked like they hadn't had any maintenance done since the Great Recession, served with paper plates and plastic silverware. They did a land-office business not because of the above, but because they had a great product at a fair price--and people came from miles and miles just to get it.
IMO, quality will always win out unless there is unfair competition (i.e., a major brewer undercutting price so much that a craft brewery cannot compete).
Will the market become saturated? Maybe. But I don't see this as a bubble--craft brews have been around a long time, and while the Martini example is apt at one level, it was simply a restatement of an oldie but a goodie. Beer is beer.
My 2 cents.
A lot of solid points made already, I'll try not to be redundant. Some of the things that I see in my travels around the US:
- The "bubble" perception is definitely wildly variable depending on where you are- in some areas, you can see some culling of the herd (it's not enough to be "craft", it needs to be good, or at least drinkable), in others they are just hitting their stride in adding new breweries. Some of this is related to regulation, I suspect...states which have only recently taken steps to encourage smaller breweries
- The point about wine having terroir, and beer not having that, is an area for expansion. Smaller-scale hops growers and maltsters, brewing with wild yeast, etc. could change the game to where beer has a local flavor that approaches the terroir that is perceived in wine. Ties in with...
- The Buy/Eat/Drink/Shop Local movement will help keep nanos and brewpubs relevant, and encourage the idea of the neighborhood brewery. Whether that gets to the point where the "big bad regional brewery" is seen as "un-Local" will be interesting to see- in effect, will Craft turn on itself (already happens, to some degree) to the point of implosion?
- To play at the regional / national level, I think that we're seeing more emphasis on the power of a Brand; it's not just about the product anymore (if it ever was, really). I think that the perception running a brewery has evolved further from this picture of brewing beer and cleaning kegs to being a competitive business that requires both hard work and business savvy to stay afloat...that savvy will make the difference between those successful and those who quietly close up shop. One spin on this that I'm seeing locally is the increase in contract brewing- build the brand, design and market the products, let someone else do the messy bits.
Rant over, my opinions only. Overall I think that there is growth left, but it will come in tandem with refinement of the brands who want to compete at the regional+ levels. Personally, I'm holding off on any Pro move until I can set up shop in a market that is under-supplied and has good potential for local sourcing of raw materials.
One thing is for sure- it's a great time to be a craft beer consumer!
DK
- The "bubble" perception is definitely wildly variable depending on where you are- in some areas, you can see some culling of the herd (it's not enough to be "craft", it needs to be good, or at least drinkable), in others they are just hitting their stride in adding new breweries. Some of this is related to regulation, I suspect...states which have only recently taken steps to encourage smaller breweries
- The point about wine having terroir, and beer not having that, is an area for expansion. Smaller-scale hops growers and maltsters, brewing with wild yeast, etc. could change the game to where beer has a local flavor that approaches the terroir that is perceived in wine. Ties in with...
- The Buy/Eat/Drink/Shop Local movement will help keep nanos and brewpubs relevant, and encourage the idea of the neighborhood brewery. Whether that gets to the point where the "big bad regional brewery" is seen as "un-Local" will be interesting to see- in effect, will Craft turn on itself (already happens, to some degree) to the point of implosion?
- To play at the regional / national level, I think that we're seeing more emphasis on the power of a Brand; it's not just about the product anymore (if it ever was, really). I think that the perception running a brewery has evolved further from this picture of brewing beer and cleaning kegs to being a competitive business that requires both hard work and business savvy to stay afloat...that savvy will make the difference between those successful and those who quietly close up shop. One spin on this that I'm seeing locally is the increase in contract brewing- build the brand, design and market the products, let someone else do the messy bits.
Rant over, my opinions only. Overall I think that there is growth left, but it will come in tandem with refinement of the brands who want to compete at the regional+ levels. Personally, I'm holding off on any Pro move until I can set up shop in a market that is under-supplied and has good potential for local sourcing of raw materials.
One thing is for sure- it's a great time to be a craft beer consumer!
DK
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Growing up in the South, I seem to recall hunting and fishing were just another reason for drinking. I was never fond of being on the same lake, or in the same woods, as some of the folks I knew were screaming around at high speed or, heaven forbid, carrying loaded firearms while at different levels of altered influence.
GrogNerd
mean old man
whether there's a bubble going to burst, sooner or later, I see nothing but UPSIDE to all this, at least for beer-drinking Americans
more beer, better beer and more people drinking better beer
more beer, better beer and more people drinking better beer
We've had three breweries close in St. Louis (they all moved to LA j/k) while more keep opening. For the most part, there wasn't any great sense of loss at the three.
GrogNerd
mean old man
ok, that's a little funny
we've had 1 in our county close. blame is completely on the owner/brewer & it won't be missed at all.
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This closed-mindedness is a huge hindrance to the growth potential of craft beer. In my experience, the sheer ignorance of BMC drinkers is dumbfounding. Lest I come across as an elitist d-bag, I include my former self in that lot. I was a late learner, but better late than never.
There are very few people in my inner circle who like anything aside from fizzy pee drinks, and when I try to get them to "explore" a bit, I get this palpable air of reluctance... almost like a "fear" of beers that have some color and aroma to them. That "barrier" of having millions of beer shoppers that are so absolutely sure that a beer tastes bad just because they've never heard of it is a significant problem for the craft industry.
Yeah, I'm no market expert, but I don't feel a bubble coming either. One thing with craft beer is that there is a greater tendency for people to build up mixer packs rather than buying large quantities of the same thing over and over again. This means that the "pie" is broken up into many more (albeit smaller) pieces, which allows more brands.
LostBoyScout
Well-Known Member
My brother got one of those barrel style homebrew kits many years ago... they've been around a long time, I think you're just noticing this stuff more now that you're into it
My local Shaws supermarket actually has empty six packs just so that you CAN piece meal your own custom 6-pack of microbrewery beer for one flat rate.
Also, I was recently in Alaska and there were some stores that actually put together their own custom 6 packs. I bought one that was 6 different IPA's from 3 or 4 different Alaskan breweries. It is a great way to try more with less.
Definately a possibility, but the fact that it was at _Target_ of all places, lead me to that conclusion. I mean, where next, Macy's? Bed, Bath & Beyond? The mind boggles...My brother got one of those barrel style homebrew kits many years ago... they've been around a long time, I think you're just noticing this stuff more now that you're into it
Kohls carries lots of beer goodies these days. Unfortunately, most of the stuff they sell is made in China crap. I don't think I saw a Mr. Beer, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them there, next Christmas.
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Not being said with any rude tone, but my mind boggles at how "unaware" you are.
Bed, Bath, and Beyond has been carrying Mr Beer for a while. They also sell Brooklyn Brewshop extract kits.
And,
http://www1.macys.com/shop/product/platinum-collection-beer-brewing-kit?ID=1721849
I have Bed Bath to thank for me getting into this...wife wanted curtains, I got a Mr Beer. I got bored with opening cans and the rest is history
Hell, they have been selling beer kits at chapters (book store chain) for a couple years now.
https://www.chapters.indigo.ca/en-ca/home/brand/brooklyn-brew-shop
https://www.chapters.indigo.ca/en-ca/home/brand/brooklyn-brew-shop
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Target, BBB, and Macys sell glassware. Why not brewkits.
Want a book on brewing? Why not a kit too.
Retail is retail. Don't matter whats in the box so long as it sells.
xandersaml
Well-Known Member
I agree with gometz; I think breweries, especially new ones, will be more local. Personally, I like that. I don't discount the fact that a start-up could become the next Samuel Adams or Sierra Nevada. I don't begrudge them a bit either. Drink up, Cheers!
SeraW
she/her
I can help with one new point. At least here in SoCal, Walmart carrying Mr. Beer and Target carrying Brooklyn kits was new for 4th quarter. (Disclosure, my wife and I are retail services reps for toy maker Mattel and it was something we saw on the floors and back rooms.)
Edit to clarify, they weren't there last year in our area.
Edit to clarify, they weren't there last year in our area.
kenoglass
Not only do I brew but I play ukulele!
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I saw Mr beer there this year .
Figures. I went after Xmas so my local location either sold them all, didn't stock them or I'm blind. LOL
No offense taken, and apparently I don't get out enough. Man, I thought I was being facetious, turns out I didn't think far enough outside of the box. Mayne Ikea? Toys/Babies R Us? My local firearms dealer? lol I considered brewing to be somewhat a specialty endeavor, but I guess to me that sort of reinforces my thought, of jumping the shark. Maybe I am an elitist, but having it sold everywhere makes me feel that it's less 'special' or serious, or something. I know what I'm thinking, but can't seem to express it properly. Just my feeling, but that doesn't mean it's correct of course.
I got several pages in and finally had to jump to here. My crystal "malt" ball says that the industry will evolve into brew pubs or rather brew restaurants and there will be even brew restaurant chains. And possibly all the Applebees, Olive gardens, and Golden Corrals will have nano breweries in each location. That means they will be hiring all us home brewers to run them.
GrogNerd
mean old man
I got several pages in and finally had to jump to here. My crystal "malt" ball says that the industry will evolve into brew pubs or rather brew restaurants and there will be even brew restaurant chains. And possibly all the Applebees, Olive gardens, and Golden Corals will have nano breweries in each location. That means they will be hiring all us home brewers to run them.
we have a local chain brew restaurant around here, called Sweetwater Tavern. yes, they have troubles with the name, so at GABF or other pro competitions, they're entered as Great American Restaurants. decent beer, they only sell on premise and don't distribute
and the nearest brewery to my house, Beltway Brewing, is a contract brewery. They're making the core beers for several smaller local breweries, so the smaller breweries can concentrate on seasonal and one-offs. plus they're making the house beer for Buffalo Wing Factory (a local chain)
Don't feel like reading all 6 pages so forgive me if this has been brought up already...
I recall listening to an interview with some social scientist author who specialised in food trends. He talked about the difference between permanent or at least long term trends, and fads. While cupcakes, or pie, or anything like that, is a flash in the pan food trend that comes up fast, and then dies fast, things like eating local, or organic, or "farm to table" are more societal changes than fads, and as such have much greater longevity.
I think the same applies to craft beer. The craft beer rise is going to be the new future- it mirrors those same trends in food of wanting small, local, recognizable, and less corporate. Things like the IPA trend, or the Bourbon Barrel trend, or the sour trend, those aren't going to last as long.
Point is, I don't think craft beer is going anywhere. Eventually poor QA/QC is going to catch up with bad brewers and they will shutter, and growth may slow or level off. But I doubt it's going to recede any time soon. But the specific hot new thing in craft beer, well that's going to ebb and change. And how brewers want to handle that is up to them. I see merit in both trying to stay a step ahead of the trends, as well as those who try to ignore the trends and do what they want to.
I recall listening to an interview with some social scientist author who specialised in food trends. He talked about the difference between permanent or at least long term trends, and fads. While cupcakes, or pie, or anything like that, is a flash in the pan food trend that comes up fast, and then dies fast, things like eating local, or organic, or "farm to table" are more societal changes than fads, and as such have much greater longevity.
I think the same applies to craft beer. The craft beer rise is going to be the new future- it mirrors those same trends in food of wanting small, local, recognizable, and less corporate. Things like the IPA trend, or the Bourbon Barrel trend, or the sour trend, those aren't going to last as long.
Point is, I don't think craft beer is going anywhere. Eventually poor QA/QC is going to catch up with bad brewers and they will shutter, and growth may slow or level off. But I doubt it's going to recede any time soon. But the specific hot new thing in craft beer, well that's going to ebb and change. And how brewers want to handle that is up to them. I see merit in both trying to stay a step ahead of the trends, as well as those who try to ignore the trends and do what they want to.
OMG! It's started...
The Lowes Food grocery chain here certain locations have whats called the Beer Den and you can taste various craft beer and get growlers filled or refilled.
http://www.lowesfoods.com/the-beer-den/
True.
I do think a number of them will end up as brewpubs rather than pure breweries. The brewpub business model is much stronger than the nanobrewery model IMHO.
And others will supplant tap room sales by selling kegs to local restaurants, even though they may never sell bottles in supermarkets due to limited shelf space.
But the market in general is shifting towards craft, and that means there is a lot of room for growth. But there's not a lot more room on supermarket shelves and in national/regional distribution, which means the business models need to be local-centric.
I don't think IPA (as a loose term for hop-forward beers, including APA) is going away. I think it was Jeff Alworth of the Beervana blog, and author of the recently released "Beer Bible", that basically has called IPA America's beer style.
The people I know who basically don't drink craft, drink IPA. Sours and bourbon barrel beers are price-limited due to production cost, but IPA isn't. And they're drinkable. It's a beer that you can easily buy a six pack and drink one after the other.
I think the American flavor palate is slowly trending away from overwhelming sweetness towards bolder, bigger flavors, including bitterness. See the growth of things like coffee, dark chocolate, green vegetables like Brussels sprouts, etc.
I think IPA is here to stay.
The good news is that the Brooklyn Brewshop kits are all-grain so buyers are introduced to full-on brewing from the start.
