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Cigar City El Catador Club Thread

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There are people in this thread that really need to take a refresher on basic statistics

Entering a raffle does not increase or decrease the chances of winning a different raffle. You have the same chance every time.
 
There are people in this thread that really need to take a refresher on basic statistics

Entering a raffle does not increase or decrease the chances of winning a different raffle. You have the same chance every time.
Actually, the chances to win a Grandmule were substantially better than the chances to win a Leon.

Wasn't the same chance.

But that wasn't your point. ;)
 
Actually, the chances to win a Grandmule were substantially better than the chances to win a Leon.

Wasn't the same chance.

But that wasn't your point. ;)
This. Your chance of winning decreased for every subsequent raffle from grandmule, but not because your won or loss a previous raffle.
 
There are people in this thread that really need to take a refresher on basic statistics

Entering a raffle does not increase or decrease the chances of winning a different raffle. You have the same chance every time.
eli5.gif
 
I wasn't saying he had a better chance in a future lottery statistically. More of a "there, there" since 1/3 isn't so much fun.

That being said - I'm still an idiot when it comes to math...
 
There are people in this thread that really need to take a refresher on basic statistics

Entering a raffle does not increase or decrease the chances of winning a different raffle. You have the same chance every time.
Maybe not from your limited perspective, but from an omnipotent karmic perspective, where you appreciate we each maintain a dynamic win/loss equilibrium at a ratio proportional to the quality of person we are, you realize past losses could increase the chance for future wins...unless you're a huge *******, in which case you have no chance.
 
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