I consistently find that pH does vary during a mash. However, the direction of pH change is dependent upon the initial pH.
If the initial pH is higher than the equilibrium pH the pH will lower over time and conversely.
When your initial pH in a well-mixed mash is less than 5.4, I consistently see the pH rise during the mash to be closer to 5.4. If the pH starts higher than 5.4, the pH tends to fall during the mash.
If the pH moves towards 5.4 then 5.4 is obviously the equilibrium pH which means that the mash has been, intentionally or otherwise, designed for 5.4. If the equilibrium pH is 5.5 then observed pH will migrate towards 5.5 and a brewer producing beers designed for 5.5 will see migration towards that level. There is nothing magical about 5.4. The equilibrium pH depends on what is in the water and the malts selected and the brewer can control the end value pH by manipulation of malt types and the addition of acids. If I brew a beer with equilibrium pH 5.5 (which, we hope, is also the target pH) using acid or acid malt the initial pH will be low (sometimes startlingly so) and move fairly rapidly upward settling, after half an hour or so, at 5.5. This is because the first thing the pH electrode sees is the water which contains the acid I added or which has dissolved from the surface of the sauermalz. pH migrates up as proton absorbing entities in the malt migrate into the solution and are seen by the pH electrode.
If I brew a beer with equilibrium pH 5.5 using baking soda then the initial pH observed by the meter will be that of a baking soda solution (8.3) and only as the malts' proton releasing components enter the solution will the pH start to fall and eventually settle at 5.5.
pH 5.4 will be passed on the way up in the first case. pH 5.4 will never be reached in the second.
There is some sort of buffering that is acting in the mash that is not well understood, but its effects are consistent.
It is quite well understood. The mash pH settles at the value where the sum of all the protons released by the acidic components of mash exactly balance the sum of all the protons absorbed by the basic components of the mash. Note that an acidic component is defined as one that requires that protons be absorbed in order to bring it to the equilibrium pH whereas a basic one is one that requires that protons be supplied in order to bring it the equilibrium pH.
Some of the Martin's problem understanding buffering may be because, though chemistry and math are the same, the numbers that go into the equations when considering the buffering that takes place in a mash are not the same as when looking at the buffers we buy for calibrating a pH meter or any similar situation where we are trying to hold pH constant against chemical stress. Buffering is simply the ability of a system to resist pH change when acid or base is added to it. It is expressed, therefore, in terms of the ratio of a incremental acid or base addition to the incremental shift in pH it causes in units of mEq/pH. If it takes a lot of acid to bring about a small pH change the system is a good buffer.
Buffering depends on pH. It is measured by adding acid to the system and recording pH. A plot of total acid added vs. pH forms the titration curve for the system below its intrinsic pH. Base increments are then added to an identical system and the plot of total base added vs pH is the other half of the titration curve. As the curve shows mEq (acid +; base -) vs pH its slope at any particular pH is the buffering (mEq/pH) at that pH.
The titration curve for phosphoric acid looks sort of like a staircase (it is in the Palmer book), that is, it has flattish (tread) portions where the slope is very shallow and vertical (riser) portions where the slope is steep. A solution of phosphates with pH near a riser (one of phosphoric acid's pK's e.g. 7.2) will have high buffering capacity and indeed the 7.00 buffer we use for calibration is made from phosphoric acid. Conversely, at mash pH, where the curve is flat, the buffering of a phosphate system is poor explaining why the '5.2' product does not work. Phosphate buffers better at some pH's than others.
The titration curves of malts are not staircase like. They are much smoother (there are some examples in the Palmer book) and while their slopes are not constant (if they were mash pH prediction would be a lot easier) they do have more buffering capacity at one pH as opposed to another it is not appreciably better than at any other. When malts are blended, as in a mash, the combined curve is even smoother and the preferential buffering even less.
I no longer worry if I measure an initial pH that is not at the pH I've targeted with my water adjustments. I continue to monitor the pH and have consistently seen the pH move as pointed out above.
If you consistently see migration to 5.4 that only means that you consistently brew beers with equilibrium pH's close to 5.4, a not unreasonable thing to do. What happens if you brew a beer with mash equilibrium pH 5.3. Or 5.5?