Are solar panels worth it?

[Dland]

Speaking of hurricanes and solar panels; I wonder how solar arrays would stand up to a real CAT 1 or 2 storm? I imagine the insatllations are rated to some set wind velocity. Even outbuildings are supposed to be rated to 110MPH around here.

We've had a few winter gales in the last couple or years that hit 90 knots briefly, and I did not hear of any broken or lost panels, but that is not the same as a good hurricane, where the wind shifts direction over the course of the storm.

 

[Oldpaddy]

Speaking of hurricanes and solar panels; I wonder how solar arrays would stand up to a real CAT 1 or 2 storm? I imagine the insatllations are rated to some set wind velocity. Even outbuildings are supposed to be rated to 110MPH around here.

We've had a few winter gales in the last couple or years that hit 90 knots briefly, and I did not hear of any broken or lost panels, but that is not the same as a good hurricane, where the wind shifts direction over the course of the storm.

I would assume that's where insurance comes into play.

So I just got my first proposal in from a local guy. I have two more people showing up today and one tomorrow. There's so many moving parts in this solar stuff that I find it pretty confusing.
Basically the guy today said I should be able to wipe out my yearly electric bill and possibly make money. He said the state/electric company pays $.33 per kw I produce and in turn they charge me $.24 kw I use. That's through the smart program over the next 10yrs. He said I should be able to produce about 17kw/yr which would offset the 21kw/yr I use. The system would cost approx $40k upfront with around $12k coming back in incentives from the state/feds.

Edit: a quick mortgage calculator says $40k at 3% over 20yrs is $221/m. That's less than my lowest electric bill over the last year.

 

[Randar]

The system would cost approx $40k upfront with around $12k coming back in incentives from the state/feds.

Panel brands, inverter brand and size, and $/watt. Key numbers. $40k sounds like a BS price to me. I paid 28k straight up (before any incentives) for a 9.6kW system, SolarEdge inverter, and 29x 330W Panasonic panels. That was install Sept/Oct 2018. Prices have dropped since then.

 

[Auger]

I would assume that's where insurance comes into play.

So I just got my first proposal in from a local guy. I have two more people showing up today and one tomorrow. There's so many moving parts in this solar stuff that I find it pretty confusing.
Basically the guy today said I should be able to wipe out my yearly electric bill and possibly make money. He said the state/electric company pays $.33 per kw I produce and in turn they charge me $.24 kw I use. That's through the smart program over the next 10yrs. He said I should be able to produce about 17kw/yr which would offset the 21kw/yr I use. The system would cost approx $40k upfront with around $12k coming back in incentives from the state/feds.

Edit: a quick mortgage calculator says $40k at 3% over 20yrs is $221/m. That's less than my lowest electric bill over the last year.

Check those numbers... There's no way the electric company is going to pay you more for the electricity than they sell it for. They pay back at wholesale rates which is generally about 1/4 of your cost.

At last account true-up in March, I was paying 9 cents per kWh and the electric company paid me 2.75 cents per kWh for my excess.

 

[Oldpaddy]

So I now have 2x guys in the ballpark of $40k for an approx 17k system and one guy just gave me a quote for $60k for similar.
Without incentives.

I think I have another guy showing up soon and another coming tomorrow morning.

Apparently Massachusetts has some smart program where the electric company does indeed pay a total of approx $.33 per kw. I guess it's locked in for 10 years.

 

[Oldpaddy]

Check those numbers... There's no way the electric company is going to pay you more for the electricity than they sell it for. They pay back at wholesale rates which is generally about 1/4 of your cost.

At last account true-up in March, I was paying 9 cents per kWh and the electric company paid me 2.75 cents per kWh for my excess.

https://news.energysage.com/solar-m...smart-massachusetts-srec-replacement-program/

 

[Oldpaddy]

Panel brands, inverter brand and size, and $/watt. Key numbers. $40k sounds like a BS price to me. I paid 28k straight up (before any incentives) for a 9.6kW system, SolarEdge inverter, and 29x 330W Panasonic panels. That was install Sept/Oct 2018. Prices have dropped since then.

Where do you live again? I'm not saying you're wrong, but I will say everything around here is very expensive. Especially labor.

 

[pdcm]

So I now have 2x guys in the ballpark of $40k for an approx 17k system and one guy just gave me a quote for $60k for similar.
Without incentives.

I think I have another guy showing up soon and another coming tomorrow morning.

Spoiler

Apparently Massachusetts has some smart program where the electric company does indeed pay a total of approx $.33 per kw. I guess it's locked in for 10 years. View attachment 690768

That's a nice program. I get a whole lot of 0.00 for my overproduction. On the cost side of things, you could indeed be paying more due to regional labor rates or demand or whatnot. That might not be too off, considering it's a 17+kW system. For reference, I'm in Virginia, and my 8.1kW/26 panels, SolarEdge Inverter, and 27kWh of battery backup was $39k before incentives. Batteries were about half of it, so doubling that half does come close to your $40k quotes.

 

[ChiknNutz]

I've been looking into solar for many years, but the benefits so far haven't been justifiable for me. I moved from WA state and I never could justify the cost versus return. When I looked into it pretty seriously (2-3 years ago), a system to offset only about half of our usage would have been been $30k-$40k. Western WA just doesn't really get enough solar insolation to make a lot of electricity. Now in NC, it is more attractive. One thing I've been noticing as I research solar in a general sense, the incentives have been diminishing quite a bit over time. They were attracting folks to get on the bandwagon and now they've started to max out the programs. As of 2019, the county where we lived has turned off the local incentives altogether. I just check locally in NC and Duke Energy has also met their capacity for new systems for 2020. Point is, the incentives make it attractive but without them, it makes less sense until prices come down or efficiencies go up.

I took a class in alternative energy in college (20+ years ago now) and I remember that PV efficiencies were 12-16%. Today, they are only about 18% on average, with the highest being about 23%. I think there is a point they can only be so efficient given solar to electrical conversion efficiency.

Without getting into being green and offsetting carbon footprint and all that, the value is just barely there these days, at least to me when all things are considered. For the OP, it sounds like it could be attractive given the higher than average electrical cost in his area. For areas where it's more "average" it just isn't all that attractive to me yet, but I want it to be as I find it to be a great technology.

 

[Randar]

Where do you live again? I'm not saying you're wrong, but I will say everything around here is very expensive. Especially labor.

Suburban Chicago. Union and permit capital of the world. Doubt it's significantly more expensive in any of those categories. That being said, my system was 9.6 kW of unobstructed SSW facing panels (aka high output efficiency). $40k is roughly in-line with system if you really need a 17kW system... If you have obstructed or sub optimal roof space/orientation, you might need 17kW... but that is a BIG system!

 

[ChiknNutz]

Suburban Chicago. Union and permit capital of the world. Doubt it's significantly more expensive in any of those categories. That being said, my system was 9.6 kW of unobstructed SSW facing panels (aka high output efficiency). $40k is roughly in-line with system if you really need a 17kW system... If you have obstructed or sub optimal roof space/orientation, you might need 17kW... but that is a BIG system!

How much of your need does your system supply? I've done the math for me, and come up with about a 15kW system to supply 100% of the average annual need.

 

[Randar]

How much of your need does your system supply? I've done the math for me, and come up with about a 15kW system to supply 100% of the average annual need.

~3,000 sf 2-story home built in 1990 with full unfinished basement. Natural gas heat, dryer, water heater, & range ... electric ovens, I have a 30yo AC and a second AC that's about 20 yo (so not exactly efficient), and I run about 1500W worth of grow lights 16hrs a day from Jan through mid-May (legitimately just for my flowers and vegetable garden)...

With hourly-rate net metering, my typical bill is in the $5-10 range per month... Might be $25 in the winter if I have snow load or am running the grow lights a lot in a very cloudy Feb/March time of year. Would likely up right around $0 with some LED grow lights and new AC units when they need replacing.

 

[Oldpaddy]

...and I run about 1500W worth of grow lights 16hrs a day from Jan through mid-May...

...some LED grow lights...

Hey, me too! That's another one of my hobbies
FYI led sucks for gardens. It doesn't penetrate enough. HID is the only way to go. Soil or hydroponics? I use a poor mans hydroponics system (DWC). 4× 5gal buckets and another 5gal for a reservoir.

 

[Oldpaddy]

Suburban Chicago. Union and permit capital of the world. Doubt it's significantly more expensive in any of those categories. That being said, my system was 9.6 kW of unobstructed SSW facing panels (aka high output efficiency). $40k is roughly in-line with system if you really need a 17kW system... If you have obstructed or sub optimal roof space/orientation, you might need 17kW... but that is a BIG system!

I'm a big man!

 

[Randar]

Hey, me too! That's another one of my hobbies
FYI led sucks for gardens. It doesn't penetrate enough. HID is the only way to go. Soil or hydroponics? I use a poor mans hydroponics system (DWC). 4× 5gal buckets and another 5gal for a reservoir.

Modern LED (GE Arize are what I will be migrating to) is great for shorter/compact or young plants/starts... Not so much when they have height. I use custom soil mixes. Have resisted going hydroponic just for the rat-hole aspect of it.

 

[Oldpaddy]

Modern LED (GE Arize are what I will be migrating to) is great for shorter/compact or young plants/starts... Not so much when they have height. I use custom soil mixes. Have resisted going hydroponic just for the rat-hole aspect of it.

Rat hole?
I find it's a lot easier to fine tune your nutrient levels and no bugs. It's pretty hands off and easy to fix problems quickly. I change the water once a week, add (since I have well water) 10cc's of bleach and add nutrients. That's it for the week.
Edit: I've been using it for 5 years now.

Another one of my hobbies is a 300gal reef tank and use LEDs for it. Lower electrical costs and less heat. The color spectrum and growth is better than fluorescents, but HID is better for growth.

 

[Oldpaddy]

Another salesman just left. This guy was a friend of my wifes family. Similar sized system as the other two I've been given proposals of. He came in at $53k.

 

[Cptblamo]

Whatever u decide about the solar, look into getting it rodent proof. My wife and I had hundreds of lbs of pigeon poop falling from under our system because of an infestation. It cost us $1600 to clean and install guards and that was a steal. Most quotes I saw online were 3-5k... We dont have much rats or racoons in vegas, but I imagine they could be problems too. I heard if u go through a couple steps and say not having that installed is a deal breaker, they will throw it in for free.

 

[Oldpaddy]

Whatever u decide about the solar, look into getting it rodent proof. My wife and I had hundreds of lbs of pigeon poop falling from under our system because of an infestation. It cost us $1600 to clean and install guards and that was a steal. Most quotes I saw online were 3-5k... We dont have much rats or racoons in vegas, but I imagine they could be problems too. I heard if u go through a couple steps and say not having that installed is a deal breaker, they will throw it in for free.

I have built in rodent deterrents. Since I switched from a metal roof to an asphalt roof last year, my cats are always on the roof. I'll hear something and look up and see cat heads peaking in at me from the skylights. Only down side is one of the cats has now caught two bats up there and brought them inside. Luckily dead. Unfortunately they like to bring in live chipmunks and then set them free in the house so they can play with them. Kinda weird how they kill the birds, bats, mice and bunnies, but not the chipmunks. Half the time it's the dogs that end up killing the chipmunks.

 

[Randar]

Oh, and your quotes look to be coming in at something like $2.35-$3 per watt. Best give Tesla a call while you're at it... IIRC they use mostly Panasonics...

 

[Cptblamo]

I have built in rodent deterrents. Since I switched from a metal roof to an asphalt roof last year, my cats are always on the roof. I'll hear something and look up and see cat heads peaking in at me from the skylights. Only down side is one of the cats has now caught two bats up there and brought them inside. Luckily dead. Unfortunately they like to bring in live chipmunks and then set them free in the house so they can play with them. Kinda weird how they kill the birds, bats, mice and bunnies, but not the chipmunks. Half the time it's the dogs that end up killing the chipmunks.

Having cats to keep pests out is good. My house doesnt have easy access to the roof so now I have a wire net around the entire system. Along with spikes and reflectors.

 

[Ty520]

As someone in the industry, i will give out this warning:

Many companies provide a 30 year financing plan ...

...but, on average, panels today will crap out in 25 years.

so you will probably still owe on them after they (typically) stop working

 

[Bilsch]

As someone in the industry, i will give out this warning:
Many companies provide a 30 year financing plan ...
...but, on average, panels today will crap out in 25 years.
so you will probably still owe on them after they (typically) stop working

In 25 years.. do you think it's going to matter much?

 

[Ty520]

In 25 years.. do you think it's going to matter much?
View attachment 690941View attachment 690941

This data is from peak subsidization - the average in 2019 was $2.53

There is also growing disruption in rare earth mining, which will probably drive cost up too.

regardless of price, if your finance period exceeds lifespan, there cannot be any ROI. if you are going to get them, contract for a 20 year finance term or less, unless you can buy them outright

 

[Tobor_8thMan]

From what I've been told and read... nope. Similar to high efficiency (anything) we never recover anywhere near the cost we are told to waste our money. Also, these, in my experience, high efficiency items are sensitive and need constant repairs. Give me the furnace my Father had in our house growing up. Was probably 5% efficient. Lasted over 40 years without any problems. In the early 2010's I get a high efficiency furnace/AC installed. Nothing but problems.

 

[Bilsch]

This data is from peak subsidization - the average in 2019 was $2.53
There is also growing disruption in rare earth mining, which will probably drive cost up too.
regardless of price, if your finance period exceeds lifespan, there cannot be any ROI. if you are going to get them, contract for a 20 year finance term or less, unless you can buy them outright

The point is the curve. It has been going down and continues to do so. The array I put in in 2019 cost 1/4 as much as the one I installed in 2009. It's cheap and getting cheaper. Sure if you over pay on your installation or get crappy financing then you will lose money. I believe that is true for anything you buy, not just solar. At today's rates and solar cost it should take an average of 7 to 9 years to payoff.

By the way, there are no rare earths in solar panels. They are made from Silicon, glass and aluminum. Cheap as dirt.

 

[Randar]

From what I've been told and read... nope. Similar to high efficiency (anything) we never recover anywhere near the cost we are told to waste our money. Also, these, in my experience, high efficiency items are sensitive and need constant repairs. Give me the furnace my Father had in our house growing up. Was probably 5% efficient. Lasted over 40 years without any problems. In the early 2010's I get a high efficiency furnace/AC installed. Nothing but problems.

Literally could not be further from the truth aside from the "get off my lawn" feels.

 

[Oldpaddy]

From what I've been told and read... nope. Similar to high efficiency (anything) we never recover anywhere near the cost we are told to waste our money. Also, these, in my experience, high efficiency items are sensitive and need constant repairs. Give me the furnace my Father had in our house growing up. Was probably 5% efficient. Lasted over 40 years without any problems. In the early 2010's I get a high efficiency furnace/AC installed. Nothing but problems.

There's some truth to this, but I think it's from government regulation, corporate greed and the garbage we get sent from other countries. The government took away the good refrigerant from the market which in turn has made our ac's and fridges suck compared to the stuff our parents and grandparents grew up with. Corporations are always chasing the cheapest way to make things. And between the corporations thirst for cheaper production and the government's thirst for globalization, almost all of our production has moved past our borders. More things are being assembled in the usa recently than they have in years, but the pre assembled parts are coming from other countries. And as we all know, very few countries produce quality like the good 'ol US of A. The other side of the coin is we get stuff a lot cheaper now. Then again, we are also replacing it a lot quicker.

 

[Oldpaddy]

As someone in the industry, i will give out this warning:

Many companies provide a 30 year financing plan ...

...but, on average, panels today will crap out in 25 years.

so you will probably still owe on them after they (typically) stop working

We'd probably use a home equity loan over financing from any of the companies I've talked to.
Any recommendations as to which panel manufacturer? I've got two bids that use hanwha panels, one that uses LG and one that uses sunpower. Though the sunpower guy gave me a stab in the dark number of $60k. The other ones were $40-53k.

 

[NeoBrew]

Looks like it's time to put your money where your mouth is. I can tell by some of your references you are an old school 'Murica guy. All three of those panels are made in Asia. If you really miss things being manufactured in the USA, you should do the absolute best thing you can do to support businesses here. Buy American, even if it costs more.

https://news.energysage.com/u-s-solar-panel-manufacturers-list-american-made-solar-panels/