2013 Hop Harvest - Another "Crisis"?

[Denny's Evil Concoctions]

My industry sources are telling me that there is another impending hop crisis coming.

Low yields in Washington and flooding in Czech have led to some varieties being in short supply.

It is thought that the speculators will horde hops, even those that are NOT in low supply, and drive prices up again, only to dump hops on the market for top dollar later on. Most likely the varieties that are "hot" right now. Of course some of those "hot" varieties only became hot after the 2008 hop crisis where many micros not on contract (and even some that were) could not get orders filled and were forced to look at alternative varieties.

We'll have to see. But be forewarned.

The low yield US crops are higher in Alpha% (and probably other oils) than normal though. Cold snaps early in the season followed by 108 days of 100F+ dry weather is thought to have stressed the plants into producing oils rather than buds.

Not sure which varieties are in low supply yet.

 

[kh54s10]

With the explosion of hop growing I would expect the impact will be less than previous. I agree that popular varieties will probably be impacted but with so many varieties and worldwide production it might just be a matter of using alternatives. I have about 2 dozen varieties in my freezer right now almost none are the popular high priced ones.

 

[hunter_le five]

Oh balls, not again....

As if hops weren't expensive enough as it is.

 

[adiochiro3]

I just learned that my LHBS buys hops "futures" about 2 years in advance in order to maintain stable, predictable prices. They basically commit to buy a certain amount of each type at a fixed price. Sounds kind of tough to try and predict what your business needs will be 2 years out, especially when tastes and style-fads come and go. What if the bottom falls out of the IPA demand?

She was taking stock of what she had and talking about having to clear some out to make room for the new hops that will come in after New Years. Apparently, some LHBS's put hops on sale around the holidays to clear out stock. Keep your eyes peeled for some good deals!

 

[Denny's Evil Concoctions]

With the explosion of hop growing I would expect the impact will be less than previous. I agree that popular varieties will probably be impacted but with so many varieties and worldwide production it might just be a matter of using alternatives. I have about 2 dozen varieties in my freezer right now almost none are the popular high priced ones.

True. It basically come down to the impact of speculators attempts at turning this from a small crisis for micros dependent on consistancy to a full blown shortage impacting everyone.

During the 2008 shortage there were thousands of lbs of hops held in warehouses while those same distributers were saying they were out of hops, only to dump them on the spot market months later. Not naming names cause I don't wanna get sued.

Outside of micros who have a tougher time changing varieties in there beers, this "shouldn't" impact homebrewers as like you said there are a lot of new varietials in abundance world wild wide now.

What should happen doesn't always mesh with what does happen. Sadly, profiteering seems to be the mainstay of the modern business model.

 

[Denny's Evil Concoctions]

I just learned that my LHBS buys hops "futures" about 2 years in advance in order to maintain stable, predictable prices. They basically commit to buy a certain amount of each type at a fixed price. Sounds kind of tough to try and predict what your business needs will be 2 years out, especially when tastes and style-fads come and go. What if the bottom falls out of the IPA demand?

She was taking stock of what she had and talking about having to clear some out to make room for the new hops that will come in after New Years. Apparently, some LHBS's put hops on sale around the holidays to clear out stock. Keep your eyes peeled for some good deals!

Many small contracts were denied when the hops "ran out". Big contracts seem to get filled first. Sime of the biggest distributers pulled this **** during and after 2008. I know a certain majoe distrib that did this with cascade. Denied contracts due to a "shortage" then dumped 10000 lbs 6 months later on the spot market.

 

[alane1]

Many small contracts were denied when the hops "ran out". Big contracts seem to get filled first. Sime of the biggest distributers pulled this **** during and after 2008. I know a certain majoe distrib that did this with cascade. Denied contracts due to a "shortage" then dumped 10000 lbs 6 months later on the spot market.

I would hope that the industry would have learned it's lesson for creating artificial shortages, and for creating it's own spot markets. It didn't work out so well in the past. This years shortage will mean next years surplus.
http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2009/10/glut_of_hops_unlikely_to_lower.html

 

[ArcaneXor]

Harvest in the Hallertau was abysmal, apparently - off 23% from last year. Hops Direct (in WA) posted that they are happy with their harvest.

 

[Denny's Evil Concoctions]

I order bulk from a distributer in Ontario so I'm good, but I feel for the small micro or brewpub.

 

[enricocoron]

We have fairly small contracts as a neighborhood brewpub/micro (7 bbl system, 1,250 bbl/year max production) and so far, fingers crossed, we haven't had any varieties denied yet. Amarillo actually was in surplus in on spot already, and so far Citra, Centennial, Simcoe, Mosaic, Chinook have all been shipped out to us. Haven't asked for any Euro hops yet, we are sitting on some Saaz, Haller, and EKG from 2012 still so we'll see when that time comes. I have had trouble locating Cascade in bulk however.

 

[opiate82]

I hope not, I'm pretty much set for the year on everything but Centennial and Cascade, and Hopsdirect is already sold out of Centennial pellets apparently (although they currently have no limit on Cascade orders). May have to try to use another source to buy some up.