The hop shortage

Williams 728
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I really need to pay attention to the news more.

I have four flavor varieties growing here in the yard that went nuts with cones, but I dragged my feet with picking and now they're all brown. :( I would have had some Centennials too, but the HBS shipped the rhizomes out on a Friday (in late April) and they sat in a hot UPS wharehouse over the weekend somewhere and died.
 
mew said:
So has this hop/grain shortage thing happened before or is this going to be a problem forever (like what happened to gas prices). It seems like the demand is there, so the market should stabilize itself in a couple growing seasons, right?
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That would be the general thought. The only influence here in the US that could interfere may be ethanol... I know I know I'm beating up on farmers.. so what. If the amount of money they get per acre of corn is more than the price per acre of Hop (at the higher price) guess what they will be growing.

Looks like I'll be planting hops in the spring in the back yard garden
 
Seabee John said:
That would be the general thought. The only influence here in the US that could interfere may be ethanol... I know I know I'm beating up on farmers.. so what. If the amount of money they get per acre of corn is more than the price per acre of Hop (at the higher price) guess what they will be growing.

Looks like I'll be planting hops in the spring in the back yard garden
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As has been noted, though, corn and hops don't really compete; they're generally grown in entirely different climates. I would expect continued subsidizing of corn-based ethanol will have an impact on barley prices, however.
 
the_bird said:
As has been noted, though, corn and hops don't really compete; they're generally grown in entirely different climates. I would expect continued subsidizing of corn-based ethanol will have an impact on barley prices, however.
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That is very true, but there has been a large amount of farmland (especially here in Minnesota) that has been converted to grow corn. It doesn't really matter if the corn survives or not because of the additional federal crop insurance for ethanol producing. These farmers are smart... they know it doesn't matter if they actually sell the corn, they get the money (at market price) regardless. This, in my humble and uneducated opinion will lead to more land devoted to corn no matter where it is.

The only sense of relief I get is from knowing that the majority of America loves beer. The demand will be there, and by extension so will be the ingredients we need to make it.... but the cost? who knows...
 
the_bird said:
As has been noted, though, corn and hops don't really compete; they're generally grown in entirely different climates. I would expect continued subsidizing of corn-based ethanol will have an impact on barley prices, however.
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Corn competes with barley though, which is why you will see barley prices increase up to 50% over the next year....
 
the_bird said:
As has been noted, though, corn and hops don't really compete; they're generally grown in entirely different climates. I would expect continued subsidizing of corn-based ethanol will have an impact on barley prices, however.
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Corn doesn't compete with hops but urban development does. One article I read cited increased growth, increased land values for development, especially in the Pacific Northwest, and depressed hop prices driving hop farmers to sell off land. Given the overabundant crop and surpluses of previous years, I can easily see hop farmers selling acreage to developers rather than try to eke out another meager profit.

Chad
 
kenb said:
Corn competes with barley though, which is why you will see barley prices increase up to 50% over the next year....
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.... which is why I mentioned corn's likely impact on barley prices in the second sentance of my reply... ;)
 
if there was anything, in my opinion, that could make the future more bleek than "global warming" or robots taking over the earth, this might be it.
 
Seabee John said:
That is very true, but there has been a large amount of farmland (especially here in Minnesota) that has been converted to grow corn. It doesn't really matter if the corn survives or not because of the additional federal crop insurance for ethanol producing. These farmers are smart... they know it doesn't matter if they actually sell the corn, they get the money (at market price) regardless. This, in my humble and uneducated opinion will lead to more land devoted to corn no matter where it is.
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I don't believe the government pays for farmers to grow corn whether it succeeds or not. More farmers are growing corn because the increased demand for corn to make ethanol has caused prices for corn to increase to the point it is very profitable to grow corn. The government subsidies are used to make ethanol more affordable than gasoline which drives the demand for ethanol.
Minnesota may not be the best place for growing corn but I believe it can be successful and profitable at the current prices.
Oregon and Washington are less likely to grow corn because corn requires alot of water which would require irrigation in those regions and the profitability of corn is not sufficient to recoup the cost of the irrigation. In the midwest summers are usually sufficiently wet to produce corn harvests without irrigation.
Short term prices for barley could become fairly expensive but if the demand remains strong then the profits are sufficient to ensure plenty of farmers will grow barley. Hops will see a greater fluctuation in price as it takes several years for a hop field to become productive so it takes longer for acreage increases to affect the supply.

As for my brewing, I will be using hops that have not skyrocketed in price. I placed a significant order from the HBS for a variety of hops that were priced around $1/oz. I avoided the varieties that were going for $2, $3 or higher per oz. I like experimenting so this is a good time to try new varieties.

Craig
 
CBBaron said:
I don't believe the government pays for farmers to grow corn whether it succeeds or not. More farmers are growing corn because the increased demand for corn to make ethanol has caused prices for corn to increase to the point it is very profitable to grow corn. The government subsidies are used to make ethanol more affordable than gasoline which drives the demand for ethanol.
Minnesota may not be the best place for growing corn but I believe it can be successful and profitable at the current prices.
Oregon and Washington are less likely to grow corn because corn requires alot of water which would require irrigation in those regions and the profitability of corn is not sufficient to recoup the cost of the irrigation. In the midwest summers are usually sufficiently wet to produce corn harvests without irrigation.
Short term prices for barley could become fairly expensive but if the demand remains strong then the profits are sufficient to ensure plenty of farmers will grow barley. Hops will see a greater fluctuation in price as it takes several years for a hop field to become productive so it takes longer for acreage increases to affect the supply.

As for my brewing, I will be using hops that have not skyrocketed in price. I placed a significant order from the HBS for a variety of hops that were priced around $1/oz. I avoided the varieties that were going for $2, $3 or higher per oz. I like experimenting so this is a good time to try new varieties.

Craig
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Point well taken :)
 
i just got back from the LBHS. Same prices so far. A standard $2.50/2 oz. Owner said they're set till january/februaryish and won't raise their prices till they actually have to pay more themselves.
 
Is there a way to pelletize homegrown hops? It seems like whole hops would soak up a ton of wort in an imperial IPA, for instance.
 
Wow, I guess it was a good thing I misplaced my hops during the move..ordered a whole new supply, then found the old ones.. I have a freezer full now :rockin: bout 4 lbs of assorted.
 
I went to my local hb store earlier last week and he told me that he is going to have to increase the price of Saaz and EKG by 100%! Not good at all. That got me to buy some hops plants and growing my own for next year.
 
Check out the different online stores, most of them are either out of different varieties or they wont sell it by the pound. I bought 5 pounds in early October and saved a bundle. More Beer still sells by the pound for decent prices but I have seen local stores up to $50 a pound.
 
Just got over a pound from Freshops this week. They have many varieties but not all. Good enough tho'. Quality is good though not as good as I've seen before. There are more brown flowers/petals in the bags than in previous years. Charlie
 
My LHBS has a what I think is a fair policy (until further notice), maximum hop purchase is:
1 oz hops per 1 lb LME or DME
or
1 oz hops per 2 lbs grain

Keeps people from hoarding and spreads the amount to all customers.
I'd hate to drive over there (an hour away) to buy two ounces of X hops and be told: "Sorry, the last customer just walked out with 2 lbs of X hops, we don't have any left".
 
I heard that by harvest 2008 we should be back to normal with hop supplies. With that said and if it is true does anyone have a sinking feeling that the prices will remain where they are today. I know it is not a huge spike and it could be worse, but it still affects the cost of brewing.

Yet another point is that we used to be able to buy in bulk for less as a homebrewer, does anyone think that those days are disappearing? And will this hold true for those BMC companies?

I have had a sinking feeling for sometime now because of the hops shortage and the state of our economy. I just want to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

One way is to make every homebrewer buy rhizomes and plant them. Then set up a trading post where we all can trade hops. Maybe set up regions where say you need a particular hop that grows well in the North East and you live in the North West. You then trade what you have for what they have.

We can beat this and just think of all the hops that we could grow. We would never have a shortage again.

- WW
 
Willie3 said:
We can beat this and just think of all the hops that we could grow. We would never have a shortage again.
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There you go. I read about and witness all these malt/hop price increases and shortages, and the first thing that comes to my mind is: "...and this too shall pass." People have always, always kept on brewing. No matter what.
 
I had a chat with the owner of my LHBS yesterday and he said that he used to buy hops in 10lb bags and them vacuum seal them in 1 oz packages himself. But now he can only buy them in 1 oz increments and a maximum of 50 at a time (I'm not sure if this is per week or month or what), and you're not guaranteed all 50, it's on a first come first serve basis. And the distributors are no longer opening new accounts, so if you haven't purchased from them before, you can't even place an order. So I guess there won't be any new LHBS's opening anytime soon.

Fortunately, my LHBS hasn't upped their prices yet and I was able to get an oz of cascade for only $1.19, but his new stock will obviously be priced quite a bit higher.
 
Can someone explain to me why you are all so worried? I understand the need to get a certain variety, but why should I care that much if the cost goes up 100%? I'm using a few ounces per batch, so if I have to pay an extra $5 or $10, is that going to make any difference? Would any of you really not brew a specific beer because it would cost an extra $3. Just seems that even if hops went up a lot more than they have been it is still cheaper to do a homebrew than even the cheapest imports.
 
EinGutesBier said:
Worst case scenario: I'm going to have to learn how to be really, really creative with my grains and adjuncts.
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I am tempted to try an real old fashioned route and brew with Spruce buds. That is what they used in the days before hops.
Ben Franklin wrtote allot about using Spruce buds as they were a native crop.
 
MikeInCtown said:
Can someone explain to me why you are all so worried? I understand the need to get a certain variety, but why should I care that much if the cost goes up 100%? I'm using a few ounces per batch, so if I have to pay an extra $5 or $10, is that going to make any difference? Would any of you really not brew a specific beer because it would cost an extra $3. Just seems that even if hops went up a lot more than they have been it is still cheaper to do a homebrew than even the cheapest imports.
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You just cannot find any at all. I had to look at 3 different websites a month ago to find whole Mt Hood and Cascade.
 
CEMaine said:
You just cannot find any at all. I had to look at 3 different websites a month ago to find whole Mt Hood and Cascade.
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So brew with something else. Improvise and adapt.
 
There's a good article in the latest BYO that arrived in my mailbox today. A big point brought up is that it's not good business for competitors to know how much inventory you have. This is the reason that there have been whisperings of this occuring, but the dwindling supply, plus a handful of other factors caused this to seem to occur so suddenly. It's also the reason that even now there is still a lot of speculation as to how 2008 is going ot play out.
 
I'm with GreenWolf. Don't look look at this as a problem, look at it as an opportunity. There are many varieties of hops that are still plentiful and readily available. Take a look at hop profiles and see what comes closest to the taste and aroma profiles of your favorites if you want to stick with your tried and true recipes. Alternatively, this allows us all be creative and come up with many new and interesting brews using hop varieties that are new to us or that are seldom used. Also, I imagine hop rhizomes are going to be on a lot of homebrewers' short lists come spring. I know I will be planting my own next year!
 
A neighbor gave me a pound of Willamette hops which he has been growing for the last 5 years ... he doen't brew as often, but I think I will get some cuttings from him and grow my own ..

I am not so worried about the price, only avalablility .. This willamette will see me through some basic beers, I suppose.
 
After talking to the guys at the LHBS, it appeared to me and my buddy that while there will be hops available, some varieties will be hard to come by, and the price will most likely go up, possibly dubbeling or tripppeling. (Currently $2.25/oz at the LHBS)

So we took the plunge, and went in on 4lbs of leaf (Fuggle, Centennial, Bravo, Liberty) from Puterbaugh Farms (hopsdirect.com). We recieved *7 lbs* in all (yes, their scale is still busted. w00t!). Including shipping our price was ~$0.99 per ounce. I've got me a FoodSaver, so I split the shipment into 2oz bags and vacuum sealed for longterm freezer storage.

We no longer fear the reaper.

:rockin:
 
Do a search for hop shortage, there are several consistent reports to the reasons of the shortage.
 
Photo of Anheuser-Busch's Elk Mountain Hop Farm

a-byard1.jpg
 

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