Efficiency Complaint Department

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True. But, here's how I see the issue. Let's say that you tell beersmith that you have a brewhouse efficiency of 70%. This number includes how much wort you (do or do not) throw out. If you leave wort in your kettle your brewhouse efficiency drops. This is why I asked about brewhouse v. mash.

Bottom line, leaving behind a gallon of wort hurts your bh efficiency. So . . . you lie to your software and say, my brewhouse efficiency is 70%, it says, ok with all that water and grain at 70% efficiency here's how much grain you need to use. But, your brewhouse efficiency is not 70%. Leaving out a gallon of wort to get to 5 means you are losing 1 gallon of the six you made. That alone is a 17% loss in efficiency. Add in all the other factors, such as mash eff, and there you are.

Consider you mash efficiency. That is the number that tells you how you did on your mash. Is that number good? If so, then you are doing great with your mash (grist crush, stirring, pH, etc., etc.) After that, your decision to throw out good wort is just fine. Just realize that it impacts your BH eff. Set your BH eff correctly in the software, and watch yourself hit your OG.

I do know that BH eff is affected by collecting wort. What I don't know for certain if it is this simple. But, I suspect this is a good illustration. Just looking at mash eff of 80%. Take that by 83% (throwing out a gallon out of the six you have). That is 66.4%. I'm guessing that doesn't account for a few other losses.

Don't think about brewhouse efficiency. That number is imo pretty useless as it only tells you how much wort is not making it through the pipeline.

Since you use Beersmith (I guess?). You input your losses, and manipulate the brewhouse efficiency so estimated mash efficiency is equal to your expected mash efficiency. The mash efficiency is what's important. If you leave a lot of wort behind you need to make a bigger wort, since some wort doesn't make it. By diluting with water to hit the volume your SG/OG will go down. By using more water and malt (basically making more wort of the correct SG), and if your losses are correctly entered into Beersmith, you will end up with a correct OG and Volume.
 
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Does OP recall seeing any still intact grain kernels? If you saw one in a handful, I'd wager your crush was not good enough.

Low and variable efficiency, and variable grain crush via the LHBS mill, are the main reasons I bought my own mill.

Now, I can go all tinfoil hat conspiracy theory here and suggest that a looser setting and thus lower efficiency from the LHBS mill means you need to buy more grain from them to hit your target. But that would be crazy talk.. At any rate, I bought my own mill and there are so many bonuses that come with that: buy unmilled grain in bulk for lower per lb price, unmilled grain shelf-life is way longer than crushed, having your own mill means set it to whatever pleases you -- overall it is well worth the investment.
 
After more analysis and studying, my numbers look better than I originally thought (I think) if I look at pre-boil & ending kettle efficiencies. I do seem perplexed by Northern Brewer’s OG of 1.064. If I look at the brewhouse efficiency calculator from Brewersfriend (https://www.brewersfriend.com/brewhouse-efficiency/) and I use the data below in my printscreens, I come up with a OG of 1.075 @ 75%. That means Northern Brewer is estimating people should be getting only 64% efficiency from this grain bill? Doesn’t that seem inaccurate or did I make a mistake in the calculator using the wrong grains or something wacky?
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Their kit instructions don't seem to specify but I'm guessing they are figuring for 70% efficiency with a 5.5 gal post boil batch size. That would get most people about 5 gals finished if everything is dumped in the fermenter, and would match the 1.064 target OG listed. So you see why it's important to adjust every all grain recipe for your own system and volumes. Like other mentioned I would target the post boil efficiency and not the brewhouse efficiency, which may change batch to batch depending on losses. On the Brewer's friend site it would be what they are calling "Ending kettle efficiency". Figure out how much volume you want in the kettle post boil and chill and plug that number in as your volume.
 

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