Right- it's an educated guess based on what your ingredients are. With some experience, it comes pretty naturally. Untill you have more experience, though, dont' be afraid to ask for help.
One of the things that helped me was posting a possible recipe on this forum, and asking for some ideas and help. I also did a ton of reading (Humbug's links are great) to learn about the various ingredients and what they did. I'm still learning so much but feel more comfortable with calling a beer "done".
Another important thing to remember is that even if a beer is technically finished fermenting, it's not very good for at least 3 weeks or so and then it improves. So, even though something is just "meh" today, it might be really good in a few weeks. And each batch you make gets better, I promise!