I would still drop the carafa completely. It is only for color and not much flavor. You need to add enough roasted grain to get the flavor right, and the color will follow. I'd up the roasted barley to 1 lb, and add about 0.5 to 0.75 lb chocolate malt, and that should probably do it. With that much munich in there, you really don't need crystal, although if it were me I'd cut the munich in half and add maybe a pound of crystal total in the 60 to 120 range, maybe split between them.
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