Hard to quantify unless someone has intentionally let thier mash sit in a SS kettle and mixed it often to see what the temp loss actually ammounts to. (keep in mind the mash near the edges will cool drasitcally compared to the center)
Id say you will be looking at a noticeable loss, especailly compared to your cooler. You are correct, the center will not cool much, but the cold spots around the edges will be quite pronounced. (all that heat you feel on the outside of the kettle is heat escaping the mash) The outside of your cooler feels cool to the touch because you are losing, well, next to nothing. Compare that to burning your hand on the outside of a kettle MLT, and that shows you how much MORE heat you are losing.
Id either insulate the heck out of it, or plan for a RIMS or HERMS in the future. Heck, I still use a HERMS in my cooler setup.