The 10 gallon cooler has smaller surface area to volume ratio so it should perform better than the 5 gallon one.
This is true but for a given volume up wort, you would be better off with the a smaller cooler, the greatest heat loss is going to be at the area of the valve, the bottom of the cooler and the top. By going with a larger tun you will be increasing the 2 of 3 areas of greatest loss. This assumes the 10gal is of greater circumference. Also, the headspace has just been increased. Honestly I don't know if you will see much of a difference.
FWIW, I see about a 1 to 1.5 degree drop with mine, with about .5 degree variance with stirring, this is at about 65 degrees ambient.