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Home Brew Forums > Home Brewing Beer > General Beer Discussion > Jim Koch: Craft beer bubble near "popping point"
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Old 11-15-2012, 01:29 AM   #11
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Maybe if you are talking about regional to mid-sized production breweries but I think there will always be a place for local brewpubs. I feel like the shift will be to stop saying your different than MBC and start focusing on local/fresh.

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Old 11-15-2012, 01:47 AM   #12
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While visiting the in laws in Germany, I love walking into the liquor stores in the small villages where family lives. You have your big brand beers like Warsteiner and Radelburger, but there are shelves of small house brews all over the store. The nice thing is, you can pick up an empty plastic case in the front of the store, walk through, pick up 1-2 beers you want to try, and then ring out at the counter. The six pack and 12 pack dont exist. You can go in and buy all one beer if you want. I think if small breweries want to compete, allow the buyer to pick and choose. Don't charge $9-12 for a 4 pack that I dont know whether I'm going to like. Just my 2 cents. I know we aren't Europe. We don't have beer trucks traveling from village to village dropping off and picking up beer. But in areas like the North East, where there are multiple micros within a short drive from one another.

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Old 11-15-2012, 02:55 AM   #13
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The market is definitely saturated. Like some have said, the small scale local guy might make it, but to get to a Rouge, Sierra, Russian river, Dogfishead, level these days will be very hard without a ton of advertising capital. If we've learned anything from the "big three" it's that advertising is everything. I'll guarantee that miller 64 is selling better than most any big craft beer name. Is it better...not to me, but the advertising reaches the masses.

A good LHBS might still be a market that could be taken advantage of if you don't have one close by. The craft industry has made a lot of people aware of home brewing.

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Old 11-15-2012, 03:23 AM   #14
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For a brewery pretty running on marketing over substance, I don't really take his opinion too seriously. However, there is some truth to it. There's a lot of breweries out there saturating some markets like CO, CA, OR, NC and WA but then a lot of the south and midwest states don't have many breweries. Per person, Texas is pretty unsaturated and we have a lot of BMC drinkers who will be replaced by younger craft drinkers. Hell, the DFW area is the fourth or fifth largest metropolitan area in the country and we have one local brewpub, six breweries operating and four in the works. Sounds like a lot but all but one of those breweries has been open less than two years. So there's a lot of room left to grow even if you don't count erosion into the BMC market. It's definitely going to be hard to grow into a big brewery in a saturated market but similarly many states/regions don't have a big regional brewer. Texas has one (St. Arnold's) and could probably support one or two more larger brewers. Some brewers are going to fail even if you ignore the competition for drinkers just because there's intense competition in quality. People won't show love locally in great numbers if your product isn't that good. It gets harder if they can chose between a good local, good regionals and a crappy local.

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Old 11-15-2012, 03:34 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skeptidelphian
I think we're gonna see a shift from the extreme ends of the style to more quaffable sessionable beers as well.
+1 I think if craft breweries don't start excelling in making really great session beers, the ceiling won't be as high. People like BMC beers because they go down easy. As homebrewers, we know that you can make very drinkable session beers that are WAY better than the BMC guys.
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Old 11-15-2012, 03:36 AM   #16
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There are 700 breweries in England with a population of 53 million people.

There are 2146 breweries in the US with a population of 350 million.

I think that there is still plenty of room to grow in the US.

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Old 11-15-2012, 04:00 AM   #17
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I kind of feel that way in Colorado. The growth of the craft beer industry has been at break neck pace the past 7-8 years here. I feel like some of the new microbreweries, especially the nanos, will start to fold. I've had some pretty average beers from breweries that just seem to want to get their foot in the craft beer door so to speak.

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Old 11-15-2012, 04:03 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skeptidelphian View Post
I think we're gonna see a shift from the extreme ends of the style to more quaffable sessionable beers as well.
Boo! Thanks for pissing in my wheaties!
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Old 11-15-2012, 05:15 AM   #19
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Going to have to +1 on session beers- the industry is going to have to move in that direction if they want to bring in new customers. That's our strategy and we're sticking to it.

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Old 11-15-2012, 05:22 AM   #20
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Actually I think if anyone is going to survive it is going to be the nano's. Most of them are run as some sort of side business and they cater to an extremely local customer base. Most of them don't even have any employees besides the owners. The vast majority of them will never get "big" but for a lot people that is okay. Think of a brewery as a restaurant. Most restaurants are small "mom and pop" places.....I see that being the destiny of many, many breweries. Not necessarily a bad thing IMO.

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