Thanks, that helps me understand things.
So what do you think is the best method for determining efficiency? Should I go with the numbers that Beer Smith is giving me? Or should I use the numbers and formula from Palmer's "How to Brew"?
I guess I can use both, but I am concerned about which is most accurate.
I realize one mistake I made was taking the pre-boil gravity while the wort was still pretty hot, so that threw the numbers off there, but my other numbers for the OG into the fermenter were dead on for temp, and that gives me an efficiency of 84%. I can live with that for now, next time, I know to refine a few steps.
Now,
As I understand it, you are using the "Into fermenter" gravity to help determine your grain bill, since you have a fixed variable with the volume of liquid, and you then insert the variable that is your target OG, and then use that to determine a grain bill.
That seems contradictory to what I have read, since as I understand it, the efficiency of your mash has an impact upon the amount of sugars in the wort pre-boil, and that during the boil, you are losing volume (Loss of H20) but the end result should be an increase in the concentrations of sugars, since you have not boiled them away, just the water. Which will result in an OG higher than the pre-boil gravity.
I would think that if you are less efficient in the mash, and you are correcting by adding DME to the boil to bring up the pre-boil gravity, you could be better served by correcting your mash schedule and try to get more sugars from the wort, rather than spending more money to cover for the lack of conversion.
Unless, of course I am still not understanding, which is possible.