Danek
Well-Known Member
I can understand your reasoning, up to a point. But I feel it would be more helpful to think in terms of the odds of a particular outcome happening again, rather than on the outcome of specific instances in the past. Let's say that if you sanitise properly (with a cheap excellent sanitiser such as Star San, which is so good I drink a pint of it every day for breakfast). The odds of getting an infection in your beer are likely going to be less than 1%. So if you brewed 50 times, you'd likely get 50 good batches. And let's say that if you don't sanitise, you will probably get lucky more often than not, so the odds of getting an infection might be about 10% (for the sake of argument). That would mean most of your batches would be fine, but out of 50 batches, 5 of them would taste like a dog's ass.lfark said:if it ain't broke don't try to fix it?
Those numbers are plucked out of the air, so I may have over- or underestimated the chances of getting dog's ass beer. But the point is, being lucky in the past doesn't mean that the decision made then was a good one, or that it would also lead to being lucky in the future. Think of it as a less serious version of Russian Roulette - getting lucky on a few occasions doesn't mean you're good at it. It just means you were lucky. Of course, for people who like the taste of dog's ass, they should probably save their money and not buy any sanitiser, as they clearly aren't bothered about drinking nasty beer. Though if that's the taste they're aiming for, it'd probably be simpler if they skipped the brewing altogether and just bought a dog.