Another example of ignorance with respect to chemistry would be to put a mash thickness term into the equation for pH estimation which apparently Martin has done guided by Kai who saw the error and fixed in his programs.
Although Mash Made Easy does not (presently at least) consider dilution (as for water to grist ratio) to impact mash pH (aside from some extremely small and close to unnoticeable vestige of empiricism from past versions which is still present, and which I need to weed out of my code with respect to water to grist ratio), I have began to think of the potential pH altering ramifications of this dilution (or if in the opposite direction, concentration) phenomenon. In keeping with log base 10, and when considering that pH is correlated to the molar concentration of H+, I offer this as a simplistic example of what I've been pondering (be it correct or incorrect, I simply don't know at this juncture).
If we begin with a grist that in 5 gallons of mash water yields a pH of 5.0, then:
10^-5.0 = 0.00001, whereby 0.00001 can be seen as the molar concentration of H+ species present within the wort.
Now if we dilute to 10 gallons (or effectively, if we mash in 10 gallons):
0.00001 molar H+ / 2 = 0.000005 molar H+
Converting this molar concentration of H+ back to a pH:
-log(0.000005) = 5.30103 pH
Thus in going from a mash at 5 gallons to a mash at 10 gallons (for this example) an upward pH shift of 0.3 pH points is witnessed.
I believe that something along these lines (if not factually precisely along these lines) of reasoning is taking place within BW. This is why in BW the mash pH goes low for the case of 5 gallons of mash water vs. 10 gallons, and extremely low, for the case of 3.9 gallons of mash water vs. 10 gallons, etc...
PS: I realize that within the above simplified model I have not factored in the H+ and/or OH- contributions of the water itself.