Xul1
Well-Known Member
This is a massive factor. Jacob did an AMA in the League FB group over the weekend and, when asked whether this event will change his thinking on cash-on-hand/black swan events, said "If Anaheim had opened on its original timeline, we wouldn’t be having this conversation." There are a ton of aspects to the situation, and the rate of expansion is certainly a risk factor, but that's exacerbated by the fact that this particular black swan event basically killed draft/on-premise business overnight. Oakland was absolutely crushing it for them since opening, so the investment in expansion was paying off until it wasn't. Anyone who has gone hard on the satellite tasting room model is going to be feeling this in a big way.Anaheim is probably a money pit right now.
Ultimately, damn near every brewery is in some varying level of **** at the moment. MT's exposure due to being in a period of major growth is an increase in that, but the fact that they have locations in every major metro in CA for their customers to pick up orders, coupled with the fact that they're relatively well plugged into distribution into grocery stores/major retail chains, also helps somewhat. That's obviously a gross oversimplification, but there are far too many unknown variables to really quantify or contextualize it.
How the varying levels of **** play out for any given brewery depends heavily on how long draft beer is a non-factor for revenue generation and how quickly they can maximize their revenue for packaged beer, both by re-tooling their planned output and connecting it with their customers. It's been pretty incredible to watch breweries roll out online ordering, delivery, and shipping in a matter of days, especially given both the financial stress of the situation, as well as the emotional stress of living through a modern plague and having your livelihood depend on continuing to interact with the public.
I hope that as many of San Diego's breweries as possible survive, but it's going to be a brutal path. That said, make a real effort to support the ones you care about, and especially the people behind them to whatever extent you can right now.