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I do have a question about what you said. When I measured, it was before the boil and I was already 40 points lower than anticipated. How would you correct that? If I boiled longer, would it increase or decrease og?

Right, you're not going to correct a 40-point deficiency easily. You'd have to boil a lot. I have done just that in the past; you will end up with less beer than you planned though. I have an electric system, so boiling longer is not really a problem.

When you boil, the water leaves in the form of vapor, but the sugars do not. Thus, the gravity increases.
 
I don't think that's off by any significant amount. You said you are using a Thermopen? The Thermopen is probably more accurate than your ability to make a reference ice bath or a boiling water bath - both are not simple to get right, and you have to use distilled water and water ice slurry for the cold point and correct the boiling water bath for altitude and barometric pressure. Taking the barometric pressure records for Boston, the boiling point here can vary between 209.53 F and 213.87F at the record extremes of barometric pressure, and did vary between 210.49F and 213.19F in the course of the last month.

+1. Your reading at 38F was likely due to not having quite enough ice in the sample you were measuring.

It does seem like the grist might be your issue, but I'll throw out/reiterate another possibility. Draining as much as possible from your first runnings (ie, before adding any water for sparge additions) is really important to getting to your target efficiency. This depends a lot on the geometry of your tun, and how much liquid can accumulate underneath your drain. For example, I use a 10 gal cylindrical cooler, and dont really have this problem (although I'm careful to get out as much as I can). My BIL has a square cooler with a slightly higher drain outlet. His first run on that one gave substantially lower efficiency than expected due to leaving a lot of that liquid behind when adding the sparge addition (HG recipe didnt help here). Just a thought, but it looks like you've got a good starting point for hitting your targets next time. Good luck!
 
Much the same thing happened to me. I blindly followed my DVD's sparging instructions (LOTTSA water to boil) then I blindly followed the boiling times and hops additions. The 5 gallon batch was around 8 after the 60 minute boil. Instinctively I knew that I should boil longer, but I was loathe to deviate from the brew instructions, and I was pressed for time (Dinner out with another couple).
This was my first batch of all-grain and I know now that I should have kept on boiling.
I am having a hard time with boil off losses as I brew outside anywhere from 15F up to 75-80 and it will vary, but at least for now I know what I did wrong and I suspect (as others have stated) that is what happened with you. This can be a mystifying hobby at times without a mentor and my old, addled brain pan trying to soak up info overload, but this site has helped immensely.
Good luck and I hope this helps in some way

Cheers
FoamFollower
 
Keep working with Beersmith. It is a great tool, but just that, a tool. You need to learn how to use it properly.

The most important part is your equipment profile. Look at the tutorial and make adjustments. For you mash-tun deadspace, since you have a cooler and braid you can set that very low. Tip the tun to drain as much wort as possible.

For the sparge it will change with what mash profile you select. Try a single infusion no mashout batch sparge. I disregard the amounts. I know that I need about 7 gallons to collect just over 5 gallons of boiled wort. I mash with about half, measure the amount with my dipstick then do the other half of the sparge with the needed amount for my boil off.

Check the thermometer again or get a new one. Make sure the grain is well crushed. (your own mill is worth the investment, I use a Corona style one. They can be found for $25 - $50.

Asked before; is your refractometer an ATC (automatic temperature correction). If not you may have to correct for the temperature of the sample.

I think your biggest problem was ending up with over 6.25 gallons for a 5 gallon recipe.

Keep at it. Make adjustments in Beersmith and dial it in. I can now create a recipe in less than half an hour and I will usually hit my numbers within a point or two. Close enough that I very rarely need to make any adjustments with DME or boil times.
 
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