I place the probe against the side of the carboy or keg about midway up, cover it with a ~5" square piece of 1" thick closed cell foam, then strap that tight with a velcro band. The only thing that would track tighter is a probe in a thermowell immersed within the vessel, but frankly the half-degree inaccuracy the external probe provides vs a thermowell'ed probe is plenty tight enough for me.
The thermal mass of the vessel and contents along with the isolation from external influence provides the hysteresis necessary to avoid frequent compressor cycling. I use this method in my keezer, fermentation fridge, carbonation fridge and fermentation cabinet.
Using a small vessel of water is similar, it just provides much less hysteresis, and if you're not careful a dead probe...
Cheers!