Good is a subjective word. That is always the problem with these types of threads.
I have only made one good beer in all my brewing experience. The rest have been fine and very drinkable, but to make a truly good beer is a special thing. This hobby greatly depends on your expectations coming in.
Talking up how awesome your homebrew will be is a misnomer in my opinion. To someone who drinks BMC and is just starting to dabble in different beer styles, then yes even their first brew may be fantastic to them, but I can almost guarantee that it will not be a good beer (and that is just fine). Brewing is a skill that must be learned. Just take a look at the many, many, many mediocre to bad commercial brews... making a good beer just isn't that easy.
Now, on to the cheery side. Good beer can be made with extract. IMHO, you are more limited by style and imagination, but for simple ales and whatnot, extract is just fine and can produce some delicious product.
My main point is that if you are a big beer drinker with a refined palate who has a lot of beer drinking experience, don't expect to be blown away by your first couple brews. You will likely make something drinkable and will be honing your skills for future brews of greatness. When you do brew that special batch, taking it our with you to show your beer nerd friends what you have brewed will make years of research and brewing worthi it. Trust me, that experience is golden.