You never know. It's a whole new ball game in the second round. A 30 could possibly do much better in the finals. The whole thing is somewhat of a crap shoot. Overall, IMO the quality of the BJCP judging is excellent and in the long run it all seems to work out fairly, but I've also entered the same beer in multiple competitions and the range was from Best of Show to zilch. The beer was all from the same batch and the competitions were all held at about the same time. In all, it was six major competitions (including 1st round NHC) and the final tally was one BOS, three golds, one silver and one bronze. That will probably never happen again with any beer I brew.