You said you were getting 90% efficiency with 5 gallon batches, but that seems extremely high for BIAB. Most people seem to average around 70-75%. Predicting 1.051 and getting 1.045 isn't that far off, tbh, especially when doubling the batch for the first time. I was notoriously off my predicted OGs when I first started brewing, and volume was the main culprit. If you don't know or start with exactly the same amount of water every time, and boil off and top up water varies, you can't possibly predict an accurate OG. Just trying to help. I was told time and time again by long time posters on the Beersmith forums that it was my volumes, and they ended up being correct. If you think it's the crush, it very may well be. Good luck.
Ed Worts Porter, using my mill and following his grain bill I hit 1.078 OG.
Ed's Pale ale, following his grain bill with my mill I hit OG of 1.070.
That's 90% efficiency (actually higher) when calculated out.
Too high ABV% and out of balance flavor basically ruined them for me.
I proceeded to then plug all recipes into brewtoad with a 90% efficiency and cut base malt until the OG came out where it was supposed to be and I hit that number almost every time as long as I had number of gals I calculated for in the end.
Now looking back at my past brews i'm seeing my last two regular batches before the 10 gal. octoberfest I made were below their mark by 3 & 4 points.
The 10 gallon that came in 6 pts. too low.
A 1 gallon batch of saison that came in 5 pts. lower than expected, a 1 gallon IPA that came in 5pts. lower I made last week...
I'm 75% sure it was the lose nuts on my mill.
but i've only got about a yr of AG and 20 batches so I could be wrong.
i've tried filling my pot to the brim and mixing during the mash. nada.
So i'm thinking, hoping it's the mill.